What To Look For

* The draw: The Nos. 1 and 2-seeded teams, Connecticut and Stanford, would seem to have relatively uneventful trips to a regional final showdown. After a likely pummeling of Texas San Antonio in the first round, UConn will get either Missouri or New Mexico, neither of whom could be sure of an NCAA invite even a week or so ago. The Lobos’ best player, Kenny Thomas, is seriously hurting with a groin injury that kept him out of the last two Western Athletic Conference tournament games. Missouri’s strength is a big, but lumbering, front line. The Tigers have trouble with quick teams like UConn. Then it might be Iowa or Arkansas for the Huskies and neither seems deep or consistent enough. After Alcorn State, Stanford should feast on either fading Minnesota, loser of six of its last 10 games, or happy-to-be-here-Gonzaga. And after that, probably an undistinguished North Carolina team.

*

Best first-round game: Sixth-seeded Florida against No. 11 Penn. The Quakers, who beat Temple, St. Joseph’s, La Salle and Drexel in the city of Philadelphia, have played well recently in the tournament with a win over Nebraska in 1994 and a close loss to Alabama the next year. Fran Dunphy teams are well-coached and the Quakers made a big statement with a 73-48 win over Ivy favorite Princeton in their last game of the regular season. Florida’s Billy Donovan is a good, young Rick Pitino-clone coach but sometimes it is hard for big conference kids to take Ivy teams seriously. And Florida is freshman-heavy. Sometimes it’s tough for rookies--and Donovan is a rookie NCAA coach as well--to adjust to the hoopla.

*

Sleeper: Siena. Coach Paul Hewitt, a former Villanova assistant, has revived a destitute program in only two seasons. The Saints were 5-22 three years ago. This season, at 25-5, they are both the top free-throw shooting team in the country and the No. 3 scoring team. The Saints beat postseason tourney teams George Washington and Pepperdine. Don’t be surprised if this well-coached, well-seasoned team upsets Arkansas and even beats Iowa or Alabama Birmingham in the second round.

*

Upset in the making: No. 14 Weber State over No. 3 North Carolina. Weber State starts three seniors and two juniors, and has won nine of its last 10 games. Plus, Weber State’s players are on something of a mission, playing with emotion for Coach Ron Abegglen, who, under pressure because of alleged NCAA violations, announced last August that this would be his last season. North Carolina looked sluggish in losing four of its last 10 games.

*

Impact coach: Iowa’s Tom Davis is also being forced out after 13 seasons at Iowa and 27 as a Division I head coach. Davis has tried to keep his emotions under control, though he has let it be known that he disagrees with Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby that the program needs a boost. The Hawkeye players want to send Davis out with a bang and certainly the draw makes it possible for Iowa to at least reach Week 2 of the tournament.

*

Impact player: Connecticut’s Richard Hamilton is a streaky scorer. But when he gets hot, he gets very hot and can carry the Huskies for games at a time.

*

The pick: UConn, finally. Jim Calhoun will at last make it to the Final Four. Stanford couldn’t handle a Connecticut team without Hamilton at Palo Alto. The Cardinal should be in worse trouble against UConn with Hamilton.