Most Surveyed Back Supermajority Initiative

Orange County residents favor a proposed initiative that would require a two-thirds vote of the public to build or expand airports, jails or hazardous waste landfills, but support drops when residents are told it could kill the planned airport at El Toro, a Times Orange County Poll found.

The results indicate that South County backers of the initiative have a tough fight ahead to persuade a majority of voters to back the measure, which is being targeted for the March 2000 primary election.

Overall, 61% of residents polled supported the Safe and Healthy Communities Initiative. But when told the measure could stop the county’s plans for an international airport at El Toro, support dropped to 50%.

Significantly, support in North County fell from 58% to 44% after residents were told that the El Toro project could be blocked.

“The key to the measure’s success or failure is among North County voters because the bulk of the county population is in the north,” said Cheryl Katz, vice president of Baldassare Associates, which conducted the poll. “And it’s very vulnerable there.”

About 70% of the county’s 1.1 million registered voters live in Newport Beach and 20 other cities to the north. North County voters accounted for 71% of votes cast in last year’s June primary, and 67% of the turnout in the March 1996 presidential primary, according to a Times analysis.

Newport Beach favors an airport at El Toro.

The Times poll is the first independent gauge of countywide support for the proposed initiative since it was unveiled last month by the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority, a coalition of seven South County cities fighting the El Toro airport.

An earlier poll commissioned by the anti-airport coalition showed 71% support for the concept countywide, though half of those responding lived in South County.

Tom Shepard of Campaign Strategies, hired by El Toro opponents to promote the new measure, said voters generally are alienated about how elected officials make decisions and that they trust their own judgment more.

“The feeling among many is that the airport is a symptom rather than the underlying problem,” Shepard said. The problem, he said, is “the cavalier attitude” of supervisors in their decisions on where to locate major public projects.

The Times poll reflects the ambiguity in Orange County voters’ reactions to the proposed initiative and to an airport at El Toro. The poll shows that voters remain split over whether an airport is the best use for the 4,700-acre base after the Marines leave in July.

Support for the airport countywide was 43%, with 44% opposed, an outcome essentially unchanged from surveys in 1997 and 1998.

Robert Griffiths of Tustin is one resident who likes the initiative in concept but believes it sets an unattainable goal for completing projects like the airport. Obtaining a two-thirds majority for almost any project would be impossible, he said.

Still, “I’m hot and cold on El Toro,” said Griffiths, a retired sales and marketing executive. “I love the idea of an airport so close, but I live in Tustin underneath a flyover zone.”

Giving residents more of a say on major projects to be built near them appeals to Marie Suchy, a collections specialist in Anaheim. A commercial airport, she said, isn’t the best use for El Toro.

“I’d like it to be used for a jail site,” she said. “We don’t have enough jail beds in the county as it is.”

When told the measure could affect the county’s plans to expand the James A. Musick Branch Jail in Lake Forest into a maximum-security facility, she said she still would support the initiative, though she believes Musick should be bigger.

“Government doesn’t listen to people enough before they [plan] things,” she said. “That’s what’s important.”

The measure already has drawn fire from Sheriff Michael S. Carona, who said he cannot support its requirement for a vote to allow jails with more than 1,000 beds and within a half-mile of homes. Irvine and Lake Forest are suing over the county’s plans to expand the Musick jail from 1,100 beds to as many as 7,584 beds.

Some South County residents have angrily accused Carona of reneging on campaign promises not to build the full-scale Musick project. The sheriff’s opposition has prompted some South County officials to threaten to vote against future city contracts with the Sheriff’s Department, which patrols most southern cities except Irvine.

But Carona said he warned South County drafters of the initiative that he would “have no choice” but to oppose it if it affected jails smaller than 5,000 beds.

Carona’s position could have a significant impact on the proposed initiative. South County’s own poll showed that support for the measure would fall if police oppose it. Law enforcement officials contend that they would have to release convicts early and could violate a federal court order if they don’t have adequate jail space in the future.

Airport boosters said their best argument against the initiative is that it would kill the airport.

“This is an anti-airport issue, and they’re not going to be able to hide from that fact,” said Bruce Nestande, chairman of the pro-airport group Citizens for Jobs and the Economy.

In other Times poll results, a bare majority of North County residents--51%--said they favor the airport. In South County, a lopsided three-quarters of residents oppose it. Fewer than one in 10 said they were undecided on the issue.

“It’s really stunning that public opinion is still stuck at an impasse,” Katz said. “This is a large public project that’s getting closer to fruition every day.”

The South County cities’ coalition has asked the Board of Supervisors to place the new initiative on the ballot. Because a board majority supports construction of El Toro, a residents’ group also filed paperwork last month to begin collecting the 71,206 signatures needed to qualify it for a vote.

South County airport foes said they’ll begin gathering signatures soon. County attorneys last week finished preparing a ballot title and summary.

The measure would require a two-thirds vote at a county general election before any new or expanded jail, hazardous-waste facility or civilian airport could be built. It would allow supervisors to spend money for planning for the facilities and certifying required state environmental documents. The public vote would occur after an environmental review is complete.

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Anti-Airport Measure Faces Battle

Orange County residents’ views on a proposed initiative are largely related to where they live and their views regarding an international airport at Marine Corps Air Station, El Toro. The measure, which would demand a supermajority for some new county projects, has widespread backing that dwindles when residents are reminded it could kill any airport at El Toro. Views on whether an airport should be built have remained divided since 1997.

* A proposed new ballot measure would require the approval of two-thirds of voters countywide for county projects to build or expand airports, hazardous waste landfills or large jails. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?

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Don’t Yes No know Total 61% 31% 8% North 58% 33% 9% South 70% 24% 6% Favor airport 52% 40% 8% Oppose airport 69% 25% 6%

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If the measure passes, it could stop the county’s plans for an international airport at El Toro. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on the measure?

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Don’t Yes No know Total 50% 42% 8% North 44% 47% 9% South 66% 29% 5% Favor airport 30% 63% 7% Oppose airport 72% 25% 3%

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Some say the two-thirds requirement would make it nearly impossible to obtain support for needed public projects in Orange County. Do you agree or disagree?

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Don’t Agree Disagree know Total 50% 41% 9% North 52% 39% 9% South 43% 47% 10% Favor airport 61% 31% 8% Oppose airport 40% 53% 7%

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Do you favor or oppose the proposal to transform the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport?

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Don’t Favor Oppose know Total 43% 44% 13% North 51% 33% 16% South 22% 74% 4%

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Note: For these questions, Newport Beach residents are included in North County

Source: Times Orange County Poll