Did Anyone Pay to See Them?

For all the clout the Oscars wield in Hollywood, only 1% of Americans have seen all five of this year’s best picture nominees and 61% haven’t seen a single one, according to a Times Poll conducted late last month.

In a national poll of 1,249 adults, 45% of Americans said “Saving Private Ryan” should win the Academy Award for best picture--vastly more than any of its fellow nominees: “Elizabeth,” “Life Is Beautiful,” “Shakespeare in Love” and “The Thin Red Line.” But by and large, the poll suggests that this year’s Oscar contenders--and many of the actors who starred in them--remain obscure to the general citizenry.

When given the option, those polled described themselves frequently as unaware or not sure about which movies or performances they liked best. For example, more than a third--or 35%--said they hadn’t heard or seen enough about the best picture nominees to pick among them. That may be indicative of the fact that other than a few big-name studio films and stars--for example, “Saving Private Ryan” and Tom Hanks--many of this year’s nominees were in smaller, independent films such as “Elizabeth” and “Affliction.”

The poll, which has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, also found that the Oscars don’t pack as much box-office wallop as many in the movie industry believe: A whopping 69% of Americans said they were no more likely to see a film because it was nominated for an Academy Award.

“I think living in Los Angeles gives us a false sense that everyone goes to the movies, when in reality, they don’t,” said Times Poll director Susan Pinkus.

Given their lack of familiarity with this year’s nominees, those polled might have been expected to favor more mainstream movies that were overlooked by the academy. But when asked if there was another movie they thought should have been nominated for best picture, only 12% had a particular movie to suggest. Two percent said “The Truman Show,” while three movies--”Patch Adams,” “There’s Something About Mary” and “The Horse Whisperer”--each garnered the support of 1%. The remaining 7% were split among a variety of films too numerous to mention.

Men and women answered similarly for the most part, though slightly more women backed the two movies set in Elizabethan England (“Shakespeare in Love” and “Elizabeth”). And not surprisingly, younger respondents had seen more of the nominated movies and were more certain of their preferences than their older counterparts.

For example, 58% of adults ages 18 to 29 had seen one or more of the five best picture nominees--the only age group in which a majority of respondents could say that. Compare that to just 35% for respondents ages 30 to 44, 38% for ages 45 to 64 and 24% for ages 65 and older.

When it came to rating actors, those polled tended to pick the best-known American names. Asked who they would choose for best actor, for example, 48% of Americans chose Tom Hanks (for “Saving Private Ryan”), as compared with 5% for Nick Nolte (“Affliction”), 4% for Roberto Benigni (“Life Is Beautiful”) and 1% each for Edward Norton (“American History X”) and Ian McKellen (“Gods and Monsters”). A hefty 41% said they were either unaware or unsure about their choice.

For best actress, the pattern was much the same. Meryl Streep garnered 18% (for “One True Thing”), Gwyneth Paltrow got 10% (“Shakespeare in Love”) and others got a mere smattering of support--5% for Cate Blanchett (“Elizabeth”), 3% for Emily Watson (“Hilary and Jackie”) and 1% for Fernanda Montenegro (“Central Station”). A whopping 61% pleaded ignorance.

Robert Duvall was the leading choice for best supporting actor, with 20% of those polled saying his work in “A Civil Action” was Oscar-worthy. But again, the real winner was no one: 58% opted to make no choice at all in this category, with 8% going for Ed Harris (“The Truman Show”), 6% for Billy Bob Thornton (“A Simple Plan”), and James Coburn (“Affliction”) and Geoffrey Rush (“Shakespeare in Love”) tied at 4% each.

Even more respondents--a Hollywood ego-deflating 66%--were stumped when it came to choosing a best supporting actress. Kathy Bates’ work in “Primary Colors” was the choice of 18% of Americans, as compared to 8% for Lynn Redgrave (“Gods and Monsters”), 5% for Judi Dench (“Shakespeare in Love”), 2% for Rachel Griffiths (“Hilary and Jackie”) and 1% for Brenda Blethyn (“Little Voice”).

Despite the low level of awareness of many of the films and actors up for Oscars, a sizable 41% of those polled said they were planning to watch the televised awards show on March 21. If 41% of all Americans (approximately 105 million people) actually tune in, that would be a record audience for the show. But that could be a stretch: Last year’s telecast, driven by the all-time box-office hit “Titanic” was watched by 86 million viewers, a record for the show.*

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,249 adults nationwide by telephone Feb. 27 and 28. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

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Screened Out

Will the Academy Award nominations send moviegoers streaming to the box office? Not necessarily, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll conducted Feb. 27-28. A sampling of the results (1,249 respondents):

Of the five movies nominated for best picture (“Elizabeth,” “Shakespeare in Love,” “Life is Beautiful,” “Saving Private Ryan,” “The Thin Red Line”), how many have you seen?

None: 61%

One: 18

Two: 13

Three: 6

Four: 1

All: 1

***

If a movie is nominated for an Academy Award, would that make you more likely to see the movie, or would that make you less likely to see the movie, or would that not affect your decision?

No effect: 69%

More likely: 28

Less likely: 1

Not sure / refused: 2

Margin of sampling error: plus/minus three percentage points.