State Will Make Its Mark in March

Come next March, millions of Californians will do something they’ve never done before: vote in a presidential primary that matters.

Thanks to its earliest date ever--March 7--and a drastically truncated nominating process, the California primary is shaping up as the decisive event of the early 2000 campaign.

Moreover, the unique nature of California’s “blanket” primary--pitting Democrat against Republican in a giant free-for-all--means the contest will provide a dry run of the November election, six months ahead of time.

“Never before have we had a primary where all the candidates are listed on the same ballot,” said Tony Quinn, a GOP demographer and California campaign expert. “There’s a lot of theories to be tested and California will give you a chance to do that.”

Will Republican George W. Bush successfully woo Latinos away from the Democratic Party? Can Democrats Al Gore and Bill Bradley make inroads among Republican women?

“You’ll be able to do an awful lot of analysis that will give a good picture of where the rest of the country is going,” Quinn surmised.

The last time California proved decisive in the nominating sweepstakes was back in 1972, when Ronald Reagan was governor and bell-bottoms were hip. George McGovern beat Hubert Humphrey here to effectively clinch the Democratic nod. Not since 1964, when Barry Goldwater bested Nelson Rockefeller, has California counted for the GOP.

“It’s our chance to be New Hampshire in some respects,” Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at Claremont Graduate University, said of the 2000 primaries.

Of course, New Hampshire, which hosts the leadoff primary, remains the be-all and end-all state. Most analysts figure it this way: Anyone who wins both the Iowa caucuses (Jan. 24) and New Hampshire primary (Feb. 1)--and does so convincingly--is pretty much assured their party’s nomination. In that case, a win in California simply seals the deal.

But a split decision in the leadoff states--or a closer-than-expected showing by the second-place finisher in New Hampshire--would probably mean a drawn-out fight, culminating March 7, when voters in 12 states go to the polls. Even with Ohio and New York voting, California remains the day’s biggest prize, offering the largest trove of delegates and the most media attention.

The state’s megaton status is vindication for lawmakers who pushed for years to abandon California’s traditional June primary, which typically brought up the rear in the primary season.

“Voters want to have a say in the process,” said Beth Miller, a spokeswoman for one of those advocates, Secretary of State Bill Jones. She compared the roughly 70% voter turnout in 1968 and 1972--when California held competitive Democratic primaries--with the 46% turnout in 1996. (Although California had a March primary that year, it fell at the end of the month, when both parties’ nominations were already decided.)

This time, efforts by Iowa and New Hampshire to preserve their cherished kickoff status have only enhanced California’s role, particularly on the Democratic side. That’s because the two lead states have pushed their contests up far earlier than anyone anticipated.

As a result, five weeks--and not seven days--will separate the New Hampshire and California Democratic primaries, and there will be no other contests in between.

“You won’t have candidates just showing up at the last minute for a day or two,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. “You’ll have extended periods of campaigning, debates and, most importantly, you may actually have a real [TV advertising] campaign.”

For Republicans, a series of contests will fill the five-week period, the most important ones taking place in Arizona and South Carolina.

But all those are just preliminaries to March 7 madness. Already, political observers note a change in this latest presidential go-round.

“We are seeing something in California that we haven’t seen in 30 years, which is candidates doing things specifically to get media attention,” said Bill Carrick, a Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist. “Both Gore and Bradley unveiled health care plans in California. [John] McCain, Bush, [Steve] Forbes--they have all been making major pronouncements here. No one is taking this state for granted anymore.”

But the biggest change is the blanket primary, passed by initiative in 1996, which lets any registered California voter cast a ballot for any presidential candidate, regardless of party affiliation. Campaign strategists--Democrat and Republican alike--aren’t sure what to expect.

“California is a challenge,” conceded Gina Glantz, a Northern Californian on temporary leave to New Jersey, where she manages Bradley’s campaign. The blanket primary “is something everyone will be experiencing for the first time.”

The wide-open balloting could benefit candidates like former New Jersey Sen. Bradley, a Democrat, and Arizona Sen. McCain, a Republican, who are explicitly appealing to voters across party lines.

But handicapping the California race at this stage is virtually impossible. There will actually be five results coming out of the March 7 primary: the winner of the overall popular vote, the winner of each party’s primary, and the apportionment of nominating delegates based on the primaries.

Oddly enough, although the overall popular vote will have no bearing on the nomination fight, the result could have an important impact on the fall campaign.

Dan Lungren, last year’s GOP gubernatorial nominee, was badly damaged when he finished second to Democrat Gray Davis in the blanket primary. “The message was one of vulnerability and it was perceived that way by the media, by Republican regulars and by Republican contributors,” noted Jeffe. The message for Bush, she said, is that even with a first-place finish in the GOP primary, “don’t assume you’ve ‘won’ California if you come in second overall to [Vice President] Al Gore or Bill Bradley.”

But Karl Rove, Bush’s chief campaign strategist, warns against reading too much into last year’s results.

“Nobody in California has the experience to say how this is going to play out,” Rove said. “Neither do we.”