Ranks of Independent Voters Rise Sharply

By AMY PYLE

Nov. 26, 1999 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

SACRAMENTO —

More and more California voters are shying away from the major political parties and declaring their electoral independence, according to a new state report.

That trend accelerated after state voters decided in spring 1996 to open primary elections to voters from all parties, the secretary of state found. Since then, “decline to affiliate” registration has risen sharply to nearly 2 million of the state’s 14.6 million voters, or 13.5%. An additional 5% belong to third parties, such as American Independent and Green.

Secretary of State Bill Jones attributed the change to a “competitive, candidate-driven state whose voters are not motivated strictly by partisan ideology.”

Before California’s blanket primary law, people could cast a ballot in a primary only if they were registered with a party that was running a candidate. To be sure of a chance to vote, they had to be Democrats or Republicans.

After voters approved the blanket primary initiative, there was less incentive to pick sides.

The shift forced political consultants like Allan Hoffenblum, a Republican strategist, to discard their beliefs that independents were generally disinterested in politics.

“When I started in this business 30 years ago, we never paid any attention to independent voters,” Hoffenblum said. “The primary was purely a family feud and all our efforts in the general were going after the . . . blue-collar Democrats to get them to cross over.

“Now,” he said, “independents are studied as much as any other voter bloc.”

The proportion of voters refusing to affiliate with any political party grew slowly for 16 years, from 8.3% in the 1980 primary election to 10.5% in 1996, according to the secretary of state. By the 1998 primary, they were drawing notice because they had increased to 11.9% and then, this year, to 13.5%.

Independent voters are a puzzle for consultants, requiring deep research into demographic and voting trends to determine their leanings. Are they are like independents living near colleges and universities--who tend to be liberal--or more like suburban Riverside independents, who tend to be conservative?

Independents figure particularly heavily in coastal California, especially in San Diego County, which ranks in the state’s top 10 counties for independent voters.

A cursory look at Democratic Assemblyman Howard Wayne’s San Diego district, for instance, would give any Republican hope: 39% Republican vs. 37% Democrat. But the 17% of independents tend to lean liberal and have kept the seat Democratic for a decade.

California’s most liberal county, San Francisco, also is home to the highest proportion of independent voters--22%--while Los Angeles County had 13% and Ventura and Orange counties each had 14%.

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More Independent Voters

New state voter registration tallies show more people choosing not to affliate with the Democratic or Republican parties.

Party: Democratic

% of state voters: 46.32%

Change since 1996: -1.4%

Party: Republican

% of state voters: 34.99%

Change since 1996: -1.8%

Party: All other parties

% of state voters: 5.17%

Change since 1996: 0.1%