Be Cautious in N. Korea Talks

The Clinton administration is hailing North Korea’s agreement to suspend long-range missile tests as a contribution to stability in Asia. In return, the administration is moving to lift some of the trade sanctions it imposed nearly a half-century ago, after North Korea’s invasion of South Korea drew the United States into a three-year war. But the pledged moratorium on further testing, reached in Berlin in six days of negotiations after years of effort, is tenuous. It is good only so long as the talks to improve political and economic relations continue. Given North Korea’s negotiating style, that means the talks are likely to last only so long as Pyongyang can wring concessions from Washington, using as leverage its threat to resume testing.

The United States, South Korea and Japan are all eager to see an end to Pyongyang’s long-range missile development. But the new agreement only freezes testing. It does nothing to limit North Korea’s investment in building bigger and better missiles, and it does nothing to curb its sales of missiles and missile technology to states that are in the habit of threatening their neighbors.

It’s of course always possible that further negotiations will produce more substantial results. It’s also possible that North Korea is once again using bluff and bluster to pry favors out of its longtime antagonists while giving up little in return. That’s a game it has played masterfully since 1994, when it managed to get a massive energy development gift worth billions of dollars by manipulating U.S. and regional fears that it was secretly stockpiling nuclear weapons material.

The basic U.S. interest remains to get North Korea out of the missile development and sales business, a goal that remains as elusive as ever. By all means let bilateral talks continue, so long as it’s understood that these must be real give-and-take negotiations, not a demonstration of Pyongyang’s skills at extortion.