Why Oscar De La Hoya Will ... WIN

Promoter Bob Arum predicts that tonight’s blockbuster welterweight match between Oscar De La Hoya and Felix Trinidad at the Mandalay Bay Events Center will be “a walk in the park” for De La Hoya.

Yeah, Central Park.

At midnight.

With muggers out in full force.

Don’t get me wrong, De La Hoya will win. Because although Trinidad brings to the table more raw power--and the ability to deliver it--than anyone De La Hoya has faced, Trinidad can’t match De La Hoya in any other category. De La Hoya, the World Boxing Council champion, has more speed, better lateral movement, more defensive ability and more experience in big fights and mega-events such as this.

Trinidad can hurt De La Hoya and probably will, but he can’t beat him.

Trinidad, the International Boxing Federation champion, has always been able to stick with Plan A, which is to come forward, wear down his opponent and then win with that devastating right hand or powerful left hook. He has never been in a situation like the one he will face tonight, where his opponent has the ability to nullify his strength and force him to go to Plan B or Plan C. Does Trinidad even have a Plan B or Plan C?

His 35-0 record, 30 knockouts and big reputation have been built at the expense of enough tomato cans to fill a grocery shelf. Other than a washed-up Pernell Whitaker, and Yory Boy Campas and Oba Carr, two solid but not great fighters, whom has Trinidad beaten? His last five opponents besides Whitaker have been Hugo Pineda, Mahenge Zulu, Troy Waters, Kevin Lueshing and Ray Lovato. Wow.

De La Hoya (31-0, 25 knockouts) has also fought his share of has-beens and never-will-bes. But in February against Ike Quartey, a quality fighter in his prime, De La Hoya, despite using an ill-advised strategy, showed his true skill level.

And he will show it again tonight--unless he fights Trinidad the way he fought Quartey. De La Hoya heard about Quartey’s power. He watched tape after tape of Quartey battering opponents. He told the reporters that Quartey had one of the best jabs in boxing.

So what did De La Hoya do in the fight?

He didn’t use his own jab, perhaps the best in boxing, for several rounds, didn’t use his speed, didn’t move. Instead, he stood in front of his opponent and let Quartey use his own potent jab to poke away at De La Hoya. Given a target, Quartey eventually hit the bull’s-eye, knocking De La Hoya down.

De La Hoya got up and, though hurt, was able to stage an impressive rally to get the decision.

But if he tries that style tonight against Trinidad, De La Hoya might not even get up because Trinidad has even more power than Quartey.

De La Hoya has acknowledged he was too cautious with Quartey, too intimidated by what he had heard about him. “I shouldn’t have given him that much respect,” De La Hoya concedes.

De La Hoya insists that won’t happen tonight. Even though he has seen even more praise heaped on Trinidad than was the case with Quartey, De La Hoya says he won’t let it affect him.

So how does De La Hoya beat Trinidad?

There are two possible plans.

One would be for De La Hoya to come out quickly, be as aggressive as he was in his final round against Quartey and Julio Cesar Chavez in their rematch and try to finish off the slow-starting Trinidad before he can get started.

Trinidad, who has been knocked down six times, has a history of going down early. And in a fight like this, bigger in hype, attention and impact than anything he has experienced, Trinidad figures to be tight and vulnerable for the first few rounds.

Still, that plan would be foolhardy for De La Hoya.

It would be like a football team with a better running game, better defense and better special teams than its opponent coming out and throwing bombs in the first quarter. If you have overall superiority, why give your opponent the opportunity to come up with early interceptions that could quickly put you behind?

Yes, De La Hoya might put Trinidad away early, but by exposing himself to Trinidad’s power, De La Hoya would be risking all needlessly.

Instead, De La Hoya must jab early and often. He must double up on the jab and attack off the jab. He must move enough to avoid Trinidad’s power and cause him to be frustrated for the first time in his career. He must make Trinidad alter his attack. He must use his powerful left hand to deliver the body shots that can slow Trinidad. He must be ready to counterpunch when Trinidad throws his right hand, doing heavy damage with his effective left hook. He must use his right hand far more than he has in the past.

De La Hoya will feel Trinidad’s power and he will know he has been in a fight. He may even go down.

But by the 10th or 11th round, Trinidad, bruised, frustrated and out of options, will be defused and ripe for a knockout.

Then and only then should De La Hoya move in to finish off his opponent and claim the victory that surely will be his.

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The Facts

* WHO: Oscar De La Hoya vs. Felix Trinidad.

* WHAT: Welterweight championship fight for De La Hoya’s World Boxing Council title and Trinidad’s International Boxing Federation title.

* WHERE: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas.

* WHEN: Tonight. Card begins at 4:15 p.m. Telecast begins at 6. Main event expected to start between 7:45 and 8:30.

* TV: TVKO Pay-per-view.

TALE OF THE TAPE

DE LA HOYA TRINIDAD

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31-0 Record 35-0 25 Knockouts 30 26 Age 26 147 Weight 147 5-11 Height 5-11 72 Reach 73 1/2 39 Chest (normal) 40 1/4 42 1/4 Chest (expanded) 42 13 3/4 Biceps 13 1/4 12 Forearm 11 31 3/4 Waist 29 1/4 21 Thigh 21 1/2 13 1/2 Calf 14 15 1/2 Neck 15 1/2 7 Wrist 6 1/4 9 Fist 11

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