GOP Facing the Forces of Contentment

This is what persuades me it’s going to be a good year for Democrats: Nearly half the Americans surveyed in a Times poll expect that when they grow old, their lives will be better.

Fewer than one in eight think things will get worse.

And here’s the clincher: About two-thirds of people age 60 and up believe they look younger than their years.

These attitudes especially prevail on the West Coast.

Talk about being upbeat and content! Forget the politicians’ traditional measurements of satisfaction. But I checked those too, from the Times exit poll in last month’s primary.

By 2 to 1, voters believed that “things in California are generally going in the right direction.” Also, half said they are better off financially than four years ago--the famous Ronald Reagan question to voters in 1980. Fewer than one in eight felt they are worse off.

The public seems pacified. Not even high gas prices are riling them. That bolsters incumbent officeholders. And in California, most holders of partisan office are Democrats.

Moreover, when voters aren’t fretting about the economy--and Americans aren’t fighting wars or riots--their thoughts turn to Democratic issues: education, health care, Social Security, the environment. They become more generous with tax dollars. Voters approved four of five state bond issues on the primary ballot.

“This economy is good for incumbents,” notes Republican analyst Tony Quinn.

“Clearly, there’s a Democratic undertow,” says Democratic consultant Bill Carrick.

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Vice President Al Gore is a quasi-incumbent. He’s also a California camper, having spent a lot of time here, often as a deliveryman bearing gifts from the Clinton administration.

The Democratic candidate is more in tune with Californians than is Texan George Bush on litmus test issues such as abortion, gun control and the environment. Polls show Gore with leads in the 10-point range here.

But that’s practically meaningless seven months before the election, Republicans insist.

“Let ‘em think it’s a slam dunk,” GOP consultant Ken Khachigian says of Democrats. “They’re talking smack, as the kids say. Trying to intimidate Republicans.”

GOP strategist Steven Merksamer opines: “It’s the year of the centrist. This is going to be a run to the center. Whoever gets to the center first in the public’s mind wins. It’s as simple as that.”

Bush was running to the center last week in Sacramento. The Republican governor visited a suburban elementary school and surrounded himself with racially diverse educators, talking edu-speak and platitudes. Pretty dry. It mattered not. The subliminal message flashed across TV screens and newspaper pages was: Bush--school reformer.

California Republicans need Bush more than he needs California. He can win the presidency in other states. But the California GOP needs him to be competitive here to turn out voters for congressional and legislative candidates.

Bush swears he won’t abandon California as his father did in 1992. And maybe he won’t. After all, he has a logistical advantage his dad didn’t: He doesn’t have to fly across the continent to get here; his plane takes off from Texas.

But the truth is, neither Bush nor Gore will decide their California campaign commitments until after the national conventions. Then they’ll make hard-nose judgments about what’s needed to win the presidency. Forget some forlorn congressional candidate.

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One Democratic incumbent it’s hard to envision losing is U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, assuming she doesn’t become Gore’s vice presidential running mate, an unlikely event. Running for both offices, voters might wonder which she really wanted--and give her neither.

Barring that, Feinstein’s Republican opponent, San Jose Rep. Tom Campbell, had it right last week when he told the Sacramento Press Club that she’ll win if voters want “steady as you go.” Campbell is a respected centrist, but he admits to being “unusual and a bit iconoclastic.” He advocates a 20% national sales tax to replace the income tax and distributing illegal drugs to addicts in rehab.

Democrats now hold both U.S. Senate seats, dominate the California congressional delegation and control both legislative houses. Nobody’s predicting they still won’t after November.

“It’s going to be a status quo year,” says Republican consultant Ray McNally.

Here’s another measure of contentment from the Times poll: A majority of people 60 and over say they’re satisfied with their sex lives. Only one in 11 isn’t.

Sex, money, looks, comfort. When people are content, they’re not clamoring for change.