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Despite Jilting at the Polls, Bush Will Pursue California

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TIMES STAFF WRITERS

California snubbed him at the polls. Its Democratic governor is a potential rival. And Texas has long competed with the Golden State for federal dollars.

So how will President-elect George W. Bush treat California? Perhaps better than many states that were kinder to him.

Bush, who lost the state by more than 1 million votes, nonetheless is expected by many analysts to pay special attention to California, lavishing it with money, visiting it often and drawing on it for high-level appointments in his administration. State lawmakers also expect Bush to deliver on a wide range of other issues that vitally affect the state and its citizens, from supporting tax and trade policies important to the Silicon Valley to improving the operation of the Immigration and Naturalization Service.

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“There’s good reason to think that George Bush will want to make an extra effort to look out for California,” said Tim Ransdell, head of the California Institute for Federal Policy Research, which tracks state issues in Washington.

The reason? Given the fragile GOP control of Congress, Bush will need to immediately begin shoring up his political position for the 2002 congressional and 2004 presidential elections (in which prospective Democratic candidates include Gov. Gray Davis).

“It puts pressure on him to look at California very closely and try to court it,” said Marshall Wittmann, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington.

Bush, the first Republican president to win election without carrying California since James Garfield in 1880, has other reasons to care about the state: Its economy is vital to the nation’s overall economic health. And its 52-member House delegation, largest of any state, includes a number of moderate Democrats who could be crucial to his success in the closely divided Congress.

“We’ve already talked among our delegation of how we need to get him to really focus on California,” said Rep. Howard P. “Buck” McKeon (R-Santa Clarita).

California also provides a testing ground for Bush’s pledge to reach out to independent and Latino voters. Indeed, Republicans are counting on him to revive a state GOP that holds just one statewide office and is significantly outnumbered by Democrats in the California Legislature.

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“I fully expect him to continue to show the kind of interest in California as president that he did as a candidate. . . . He understands how important California is,” said state Sen. Jim Brulte (R-Rancho Cucamonga).

All that said, Bush’s relationship with California ultimately will be determined by the policies he pursues.

“Do we get the ‘Bob Jones’ Bush?” asked Bruce Cain, director of the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, referring to Bush’s controversial appearance early this year at the conservative Christian school in South Carolina. “Or do we get the compassionate conservative?”

Democrats say Bush will be courting disaster in California if he pursues some of the policies advocated by conservative supporters or even his running mate, Dick Cheney, who during the campaign said that he might push for a review of the Clinton administration’s designation of thousands of acres of wilderness as national monuments.

“The Republicans have never faced a fundamental reality here, and that is that their political philosophy is out of step with California,” Democratic strategist Bill Carrick said. “Even if this particular president has a more pleasant demeanor than [conservative activists such as House Majority Whip] Tom DeLay, he has the same sort of positions on issues that have gotten Republicans in trouble here: on [abortion] choice, the environment and guns.”

Initially, Bush’s relationship with California will be overshadowed by one basic political reality: Clinton is a hard act to follow.

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Clinton focused on California early and often, traveling to the state 56 times during his presidency. And California loved him in return, showering him with Sierra-high mountains of campaign money and political support.

“The Clinton-Gore administration was fabulous to California,” said Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg (D-Sherman Oaks). “Any time one of their people came out here, they didn’t come out without a check.”

California Republicans want the same treatment from Bush, and many have already drawn up wish lists.

McKeon hopes to see defense spending increases that would allow the B-2 bomber assembly line to roll again in Palmdale. Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach) hopes to see an extension of the Internet tax moratorium. Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) would like the state to retain more of its gas tax revenues for transportation projects.

Rep. George P. Radanovich (R-Mariposa) believes that Bush should scale back the Sequoia National Monument created by Clinton.

But Radanovich’s request is exactly the type of action California Democrats caution against. Bush “can’t take the Texas environmental programs and think they’re going to work in California,” warned Rep. George Miller (D-Martinez).

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At least a few Democrats have wish lists of their own. Rep. Bob Filner (D-San Diego) hopes that Bush will support projects along the California-Mexico border, including establishing a freight rail line running from San Diego to the east. “I’m going to go see him as soon I can,” Filner said.

A Bush administration could have a major effect on the more aggressive role the federal government has played in policing local police.

The Clinton administration has forced a handful of police departments across the country--including the Los Angeles Police Department--to submit to outside monitoring because of recurring problems in their operations. But Bush said during the campaign that he does not think the federal government should be “second-guessing” local departments.

When it comes to policing the police, Bush “sees a role there for the [federal government], but [its] chief value is to put dirty cops in jail when the locals can’t seem to do it--not to tell a local police department how to run itself,” said Joseph McNamara, a former police chief in San Jose who is now a fellow in law enforcement at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

On the ever-volatile issue of water, California officials hope the Bush administration will support Clinton administration efforts to referee interstate disputes involving the Colorado River and to solve environmental problems of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

Because of a dispute over water allocation between farming and environmental interests, Congress this session did not provide additional funds for the state and federal effort to solve the delta’s problems.

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State Resources Secretary Mary Nichols recently said that she looks forward to the federal government again becoming “a full partner” in the so-called Calfed program to save the delta, the largest watershed in the Western United States.

“I think Calfed is troubled,” said Joseph Sax, UC Berkeley law professor and water advisor to outgoing Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt. “The interested parties still haven’t come to terms with each other.”

Along the Colorado River, the Bush administration also inherits several efforts by Babbitt aimed at ending decades of litigation and anger.

While Babbitt often tilted toward Native Americans and environmental causes in the water disputes, Bush’s Interior secretary is expected to be more amenable to the needs of agriculture.

“You’ll see a much more balanced environmental policy,” said political strategist Ken Khachigian, whose clients include Central Valley farmers.

Still, Sax said he doubts “a full scale reversal” of policies will be undertaken by the new administration.

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“Most of the stakeholders [water agencies, environmental groups, state governments, etc.] are committed to the existing set of arrangements” hammered out during eight years of Babbitt’s tenure, he said.

The new administration is expected to continue a Clinton initiative to clean up Lake Tahoe, in part because the program has enjoyed bipartisan support in Congress.

On immigration, Bush pledged in the campaign to create a “new culture of respect” at the Immigration and Naturalization Service. His specific proposals include spending $500 million over five years to reduce to six months the waiting periods to process immigration forms such as work visas, green cards and legal residency status.

Bush’s election likely will mean a shot in the arm for some of California’s defense contractors, particularly with his support for a system patterned after President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative.

“There is going to be an increased commitment to the defense area,” Brulte said. “Our military budget will increase, but it will be to look at the next generation of technology. That could mean a return to California of some of the jobs that were lost . . . [but] it might be a different type of company that benefits.”

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Times staff writers Eric Lichtblau and Tony Perry contributed to this story.

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