McCain, Bush Tied in Pivotal S.C. Race

With voters starkly dividing along lines of ideology and partisanship, George W. Bush and John McCain are battling to a standstill in the pivotal South Carolina Republican primary, a Times Poll in the state has found.

As the campaign charges toward Saturday’s vote, Bush drew 42% in the survey and McCain 40%, a finding well within the poll’s margin of error. Conservative social activist Alan Keyes lags with 5%.

At its core, the poll suggests, the race is becoming a struggle between McCain’s efforts to build a coalition of the political center and Bush’s drive to mobilize the state’s formidable conservative Republican base. The poll found Bush dominating among South Carolina Republicans (particularly conservatives) and McCain leading among Democrats and independents--who can participate in the primary and may vote in large numbers, according to the survey.

As that suggests, one critical question in this increasingly bitter struggle could be who turns out to vote. Equally important, the Times survey also finds that many potential voters are still wrestling with their choices. Nearly 1 in 7 say they are undecided. And a quarter of each of the two candidates’ supporters say they could switch before the vote.

Reflecting the acrimonious tone of the two men’s daily exchanges--and the barrage of attack ads pulsing across radio and television--the race is increasingly polarizing South Carolina voters. Overall, both McCain and Bush are viewed favorably by about three-fourths of those intending to vote. But a quarter of Bush voters now say they have an unfavorable view of McCain, and even more strikingly, 42% of McCain voters view Bush unfavorably.

For both Bush and McCain, the stakes in the South Carolina contest are enormous. McCain’s support around the country has surged since his sweeping victory over Bush in New Hampshire earlier this month. If McCain adds to his momentum with an upset in South Carolina--a state Bush’s campaign has touted as a “firewall”--the ensuing wave could threaten to swamp the Texas governor. Conversely, if Bush breaks McCain’s charge here, the challenger will have more difficulty overcoming Bush’s continued lead in the polls in most states--especially given the front-runner’s enormous financial advantage.

South Carolina voters appear aware of the implications. The poll found a large number of registered voters saying they intend to participate--with independents and Democrats making up almost half of those who say they are likely to vote. Democrats and independents may be more likely to participate in the GOP contest because Democrats will not hold their caucuses until March 9, when their party’s nomination could already be decided.

For that reason, Bush could be in a stronger position if turnout runs lower than this poll projects. An alternative calculation, assuming turnout closer to the level in the 1996 South Carolina primary, puts Bush’s lead at 5 percentage points: 49% to 44%. That’s largely because if turnout is low, the independents and Democrats bolstering McCain appear likely to drop off in greater numbers than would the core Republicans backing Bush.

The Times Poll, supervised by poll director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,047 voters intending to vote in the South Carolina Republican primary; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. The survey was conducted Feb. 10-12.

Looking at the electorate that appears likely to vote, the survey found the two leaders relying on contrasting coalitions of support. In South Carolina, a state whose center of gravity tilts right, Bush is holding the Republican base (especially conservatives) much more effectively than he did in New Hampshire. (A Times exit poll showed McCain and Bush splitting the votes of partisan Republicans in New Hampshire almost evenly.)

“I like Bush’s stance on most of the issues,” said Kathryn Updike, a Republican in the small South Carolina town of Tega Cay who was interviewed in the poll. “McCain sounds to me like a Democrat . . . [with] his tax package and the way he tries to circle around the issues. On abortion, it seems to change every time you hear him.”

Reflecting those sentiments, Bush leads McCain among Republicans by 55% to 30%. By contrast, Democrats planning to vote in the primary give McCain a 34 percentage point lead, and independents prefer the senator by 46% to 36%, the poll found. Between them, the poll projects, independents and Democrats could cast as many as 45% of the votes in the primary, with Republicans accounting for the remaining 55%.

Independent voter Jesse Odle, who lives near Charleston, said: “McCain is talking about the tons of money coming into the people that are already in office. This is payola, and he might be guilty of it his own self, but in my short lifetime, he’s the only who’s said it exists.”

Yet the story is more complex than a simple divide between Republicans (for Bush) and non-Republicans (for McCain). Sorting the electorate along a scale that measures both ideology and partisanship shows that both factors are intertwining to shape the race. Bush’s coalition leans right, across party lines; McCain’s is defined by centrism.

Conservative Republicans (by far the single biggest group in the electorate) provide the core of Bush’s support: They give him a 35 percentage point advantage over McCain. Bush’s next best group is independents who consider themselves conservatives. In New Hampshire, these voters preferred McCain; but in South Carolina they give Bush an 11-point advantage.

Republican moderates divide almost exactly evenly between the two men, with Bush at 42% and McCain at 41%. McCain leads among independents who consider themselves moderate or liberal (who give him a 31 percentage point lead over Bush) and Democrats of all sorts, who prefer the senator by well over 2 to 1.

Bush leads among evangelical Christian voters--a group that is far more important here than in New Hampshire. White Christian fundamentalists make up more than one-third of those who say they are likely to vote, and they prefer Bush by 49% to 35%. (Though Keyes has targeted this group, he draws just 5%.) Two-thirds of likely voters say abortion should be illegal most or all of the time, and they prefer Bush by 9 percentage points.

No demographic factor affects the race nearly as much as ideology or partisanship. McCain runs slightly better among senior citizens and with voters who have recently moved into the state. Bush runs slightly better with voters younger than 45, those with a high school education or less and lifelong residents. But these tend to be narrow differences. Likewise, men and women differ little in their preferences.

More dramatic are the divergent strengths that voters attribute to the two leading contenders. The contrasts emerged when the poll asked voters to directly compare the candidates on 10 measures--ranging from personal qualities such as the ability to get things done, to their ability to handle issues such as education.

Bush held clear leads on three of these measures. His biggest advantage came when voters were asked who would be the GOP’s strongest nominee in November: 58% said Bush, 34% McCain. (Among Republicans Bush’s margin swells to 45 points.) Bush also led when voters were asked who “would do the best job of enacting a conservative Republican agenda” and held a decisive edge on the question of which candidate could best handle education.

“I read some of the things he’s done about education in Texas, and I think he’s done a good job,” said Theresa Lubbers, a middle school librarian in Charleston backing Bush. “And if he’s done a good job as governor, I think he’s going to look at the whole country in that way.”

Finally, voters gave Bush a slight 6 percentage point advantage when asked which candidate could best get things done.

McCain’s advantages flowed from his campaign themes. He led Bush 49% to 33% when voters were asked which candidate could best handle foreign policy. McCain also led on questions that evoked a desire for reform: He led Bush by double digits when voters were asked which candidate would be least influenced by special interests and who could bring “needed change to Washington.”

These findings, and interviews with poll respondents, suggest that each candidate is being defined in significant measure by the contrast with the other. To McCain’s supporters, Bush appears more as a typical career political when compared with their man even though he’s held public office for only a third as long as McCain.

“I realize McCain has been in the Senate, but I don’t consider him in that same political group--he comes from a real-life life,” says Greg Farley, a Republican firefighter in Sumter backing McCain. “When I think of George Bush, I just think of a professional politician, his whole family, and that’s what I am trying to stay away from this time.”

Similarly to some Bush supporters, the ideological comparison with their man makes McCain appear as a moderate--even though he’s amassed a staunchly conservative voting record in Congress. Overall, 44% of all South Carolina voters--and a majority of Bush supporters--describe McCain as a moderate or a liberal. By contrast, 63% of all voters, and nearly three-fourths of his own supporters, call Bush a conservative.

As in polls elsewhere, a majority of likely voters sides with McCain on the central policy disagreement in the GOP race--taxes. Only 35% of those polled agree with Bush’s call for a large tax cut; 57% agree with McCain that the surplus should be devoted largely to paying down debt, and bolstering Social Security and Medicare. But when asked who could better handle the surplus, voters divided evenly between the two men; similarly, McCain held an advantage only within the margin of error on handling Social Security.

On an even more divisive issue, exactly half of likely primary voters say South Carolina should take down the Confederate battle flag from its state capitol. But 70% of voters (including 80% of partisan Republicans) say that the presidential candidates should not express an opinion on the controversy--the position that both Bush and McCain have taken.

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The South Carolina Primary

George W. Bush and John McCain poll nearly even among those

likely to vote in next Saturday’s Republican primary.

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Asked of those likely to vote in the GOP primary. Self-described party affilliations. “Don’t know” responses not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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The Best Candidate?

Notes: Questions were asked of likely GOP primary voters. Numbers do not total 100% where some answer categories are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll

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Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll.

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

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The Times Poll contacted 1,047 South Carolina primary voters likely to vote in the Republican primary on Feb. 19. The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 10-12. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all possible exchanges. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the entire likely voter sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.