Remade Michigan May Help Remake McCain’s GOP Fortunes

When Gov. John Engler signed a bill last year giving Michigan one of the nation’s earliest Republican primaries, he did so with confidence that the vote would seal the nomination of George W. Bush and, perhaps, secure a spot in a Bush White House for himself.

But now that the contest for the Republican nomination is really a contest, Engler’s state could instead wind up being a catapult for Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

On Tuesday, the race arrives here, its first industrial state and the first with a Republican governor. But if the backdrop has changed, the script appears much the same as New Hampshire and South Carolina, where the next primary is scheduled Saturday.

Michigan features Bush and the party apparatus running neck and neck with McCain, the maverick, in an open primary that invites independent and Democratic voters to participate in the GOP selection.

Partly for that reason, the outcome of Saturday’s vote in South Carolina “could have a massive effect here,” said David Rhode, a political scientist at Michigan State University. “Even just a bounce for one candidate could have an impact here, let alone a true shift.”

Experts say this once-rusting state boasts a radically remade and robust economy, with all the attendant and little-understood shifts in voter attitudes.

The number of union workers has diminished, followed by the predictability of that vote. And sizable pockets of maddeningly independent-minded Republicans, as well as the legendary and much sought-after “Reagan Democrats,” are shifting, and perhaps growing.

The race here also plays host to a series of quirks and intrigues, including the recent resignation of the state Republican chairman; Democrats mobilizing for McCain in an effort to slap down Engler and the fact that McCain’s strategist, Mike Murphy, helped pilot Engler’s campaigns for years.

Seasoned pollsters and strategists who have studied the new terrain agree on little--except that it will all come down to turnout. A sizable showing, complete with independents and Democrats, will favor McCain, the outsider. A low turnout will swing the odds to Bush.

While the race is close, Bush appears to be reclaiming some of the ground he lost here after his 18-point whipping by McCain in the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 1. The Texas governor dominates the airwaves here, with ads attacking McCain on everything from the senator’s campaign finance reform plan to their conflicting ideas about the budget surplus.

Bush Ads Dominate Michigan Airwaves

The Texas governor has a volunteer coordinator in each of 300 communities, more money, and his ads outnumber McCain’s by at least 2 to 1.

Last week, a Detroit News poll taken over five days gave McCain a 9-point lead. But the Arizona senator held a 13-point advantage on the first day of the poll--when the Bush ads began to air--and slipped to a 1-percentage-point advantage by the final day.

“I’ve never seen a candidate collapse as fast as Bush did or turn it back around as fast as Bush did,” said Steve Mitchell, whose firm, Mitchell Research & Communications, conducted the poll. “His negative ads really started to kick in by Friday.”

Economically, Michigan was nearly crippled in the 1980s by the upheaval in the auto industry. But not only has the state rebounded, it has ridden the nation’s current economic boom higher than just about any other state when you consider its starting point.

What this new economy and expanding professional work force will mean Tuesday is debated endlessly, although many observers say it is increasingly independent minded.

In 1998, Republicans captured both the state House and the state Supreme Court, the first such GOP domination in nearly half a century. In presidential races, Michigan has almost mirrored national political trends. Its vote was within 1% of the national split between Democrats and Republicans in 1984, 1988 and 1992. In 1996, it was slightly more Democratic than the rest of the country.

Both McCain and Bush are focusing heavily on a handful of economically evolving areas that have shown signs of swinging to either party.

Voters in historically conservative Oakland County, in Detroit’s northwest suburbs, helped elect Democrat Jennifer Granholm to the attorney general’s office in 1998. Another area of interest is here in Macomb County, just east of Oakland, and a hotbed of moderate Democrats who voted for Ronald Reagan in 1980.

“The key battlegrounds--we know where they are and the Bush camp knows where they are,” said Peter DeMarco, McCain’s Michigan press secretary. “We’re going to be fighting for the same voters.”

McCain’s camp has been delighted that the race has increasingly focused on character and is thereby more welcoming of the Vietnam War hero’s insurgent campaign. McCain’s popularity has attracted a growing legion of volunteers. Meanwhile, the Bush campaign enjoys the backing of Engler, a considerable force in national Republican circles and a massive force here.

Gov. Engler’s Increasing Role

Now in the midst of his third term, Engler has championed successful reforms on fronts ranging from welfare to education, along the way slashing property taxes and turning a budget deficit into a $428-million surplus.

In a 30-year political career that began with a seat in the Michigan House, Engler has never lost an election. And he has all but staked his career on delivering Michigan, lining up Bush endorsements from the secretary of state, the lieutenant governor and 80% of Republican state legislators.

As the race has tightened, however, Engler has ceased describing Michigan as a “firewall” through which Bush contenders would never pass.

“I’ve been sweating since the beginning,” Engler said. “This was never going to be easy. Michigan is always a state that’s competitive. That’s just how it is.”

But, he added, “I think this has been a very good week for George Bush. Just as we’ve seen [the momentum] move in South Carolina, it’s moving here.”

Engler’s control of the party has been questioned recently since state party chair Betsy DeVos resigned earlier this month, citing “petty intramural disputes” with the governor. But she made clear her dispute was with Engler, not Bush, whom she has since endorsed.

Bush supporters are also watching with some nervousness as Detroit Democrats have urged their party members to rebuff the governor by voting for McCain.

“What we’re seeing is Democrats crossing over not because they think John McCain is the better candidate, but because they want to deliver a defeat to Gov. Engler,” said Del Chenault, executive director of Bush’s Michigan campaign.

Such spoiling tactics rarely impact a contest of this magnitude, analysts say. Then again, they concede it’s possible in a revamped state with an early, open primary.

“Who shows up is now the most important consideration,” said Michigan State’s Rhode. “Second most important is what happens in South Carolina.”

“Oh, yes,” he mused. “This one is a horse race.”

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Times researcher John Beckham contributed to this story.

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Profile: Michigan

Population: 9.8 million (1998 est.)

Population by race and ethnicity:

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Latino population is 2%. Latinos may be of any race, so their totals may overlap with white or black racial categories. Numbers do not add up to 100% due to rounding.

REGISTERED VOTERS

6,915,613 (1998)

(No party registration)

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1996 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Bill Clinton (D) . . . . . 1,989,683 (52%)

Bob Dole (R) . . . . . . .1,481,572 (39%)

Ross Perot (I) . . . . . . . . .336,681 (9%)

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1992 PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Bill Clinton (D) . . . . . 1,871,182 (44%)

George Bush (R) . . . .1,554,940 (36%)

Ross Perot (I) . . . . . . . .824,813 (19%)

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Republican convention delegates: 58

Democratic convention delegates: 129

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Source: Almanac of American Politics, 2000