Primaries Force Candidates to Show They Have ‘What It Takes’ to Lead

At a news conference the day before his resounding victory in South Carolina, George W. Bush was asked whether three months ago--flush with money, laden with endorsements, lionized as the inevitable nominee--he had any inkling that he’d be locked in such a fierce battle with John McCain.

“I knew there would be some tough moments,” Bush said. “But that’s when we get to find out what the candidate’s made out of. That’s when we get to find out what the future president is made out of.” Bush got it just right. Once again the presidential primaries are doing exactly what they are supposed to: showing us whether the men seeking the White House have what it takes for the job.

“What It Takes” was the title of Richard Ben Cramer’s epic history of the 1988 presidential primaries--a book that is to most political journalism what Moby Dick is to the fish story. In his compelling, novelistic narrative, Cramer offered a provocative thesis: For all their craziness and chaos, the primaries serve a valuable function by placing the contenders in a crucible of almost unbearable physical and mental pressure--and measuring who has the determination, skill and resiliency to survive. In the trials of the primaries, Americans get to see who has what it takes to handle the trials of the presidency.

The primaries have provided that kind of test again this year. Vice President Al Gore faced his sternest challenge early last fall, when polls showed him sagging against Bill Bradley, especially in New Hampshire. Gore showed the nerve to revamp his campaign operation, the creativity to fundamentally change the way he campaigned (trading in the president-in-waiting entourage for a town-meeting style), and the ruthlessness to pound away at the weak spots in Bradley’s agenda.

It’s reasonable to ask whether all of Gore’s charges against Bradley were entirely fair, but the vice president displayed the determination and sheer will to win that are indispensable for success in a president. Bradley, by contrast, initially looked noble, but then ineffectual and finally petulant, as he first failed to respond to Gore’s issue critique and then launched personal attacks on his rival. Presidents need to be both tough and thick-skinned; Bradley seemed neither, and now is running a campaign on life-support.

On the Republican side, the testing has been even more severe. The contest between Bush and McCain has evolved into a heavyweight title fight. It’s common for voters to complain that they are left selecting the lesser evil, but in the Voter News Service exit poll, fully 88% of those who voted Saturday in South Carolina said they were satisfied with the choice they were presented--an extraordinary testament to the two bloodied contenders.

Like any great title fight, the Republican race has rolled and swayed through shifting waves of momentum. By far, Bush was the dominant story of 1999. Though he had never before sought national office, he consolidated the Republican establishment with unprecedented success, offered a fresh message of “compassionate conservatism” and soared ahead in the polls.

McCain, as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, survived personal trials before ever stepping onto the campaign trail that were more demanding than anything the other candidates has faced. But the campaign has exposed him to a more revealing political test than he has ever confronted.

Unable to compete with Bush’s money, McCain executed a textbook insurgency campaign. The senator kept himself in the news through 1999 with his hawkish stance on Kosovo and the release of his harrowing memoirs of life as a POW in Vietnam. He forged a powerful reform message and developed a new style of campaigning--with town hall meetings and dawn-till-dark access for reporters--that stood out in brilliant relief against the imperial pretension of Bush’s carefully controlled interactions with public and press. And unlike previous insurgents, McCain raised enough money to plant flags beyond the first contests--laying down enough television advertising to become competitive in South Carolina and Michigan, which votes tomorrow.

McCain’s commanding win in New Hampshire validated his strategy. But in the gut-wrenching 18-day battle for South Carolina, Bush--a man whose life as a president’s son has been mostly cushioned from reversal--showed some unexpected grit too. Like Gore last fall, Bush proved himself both flexible and ruthless. Flexible in that he retooled both his message (accentuating his own, policy-based reform agenda) and style (adapting McCain’s town hall and bus tours).

Ruthless in that Bush showed he could take a punch and give a punch and was willing, if necessary, even to deliver a low punch. Bush may have created later problems for himself by ducking the Confederate flag issue and embracing Bob Jones University. But somewhere the ghost of Lee Atwater, the late hardball guru of South Carolina Republican politics, was smiling when Bush, in a debate with McCain, managed to insinuate (without any evidence) that the senator was the candidate of gay Republicans--not the most popular group in a state with such a powerful network of religious conservatives.

Now, after Bush’s convincing win Saturday, the pressure is on McCain to adapt again. McCain has demonstrated that his reform coalition of independents, Democrats and moderate Republicans can bring him within range of Bush in most places. But, to actually catch him, McCain needs to broaden his appeal to his party’s base; he won’t take many states if he allows Bush to keep attracting nearly 70% of Republican voters, as he did in South Carolina.

McCain’s initial response Saturday night--continuing to emphasize the need for the GOP to change and launching Bradley-style complaints against Bush’s tactics--didn’t seem the most promising approach to converting more Republicans. But it also took Bush several days to find his voice again after New Hampshire. McCain’s problem is that the rush of oncoming primaries doesn’t give him as much time to recover as Bush had in South Carolina. No one has ever questioned McCain’s grit. But flexibility and adaptability are also part of what it takes to win the presidency, and the next few days will test whether McCain has those qualities in sufficient measure to find a way off the mat in this political match for the ages.

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