The Make-or-Break State

A powerless giant in Republican presidential primaries the past 36 years, California now becomes the make-or-break state in the bitter fight between Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain. The winner in the March 7 primary will take all of the state’s 162 voting delegates to the Republican National Convention in Philadelphia this summer.

Bush may be able to win the GOP nomination without carrying California, in part because of friendly territory ahead in Texas and Florida, but for McCain a loss here would be devastating. That’s why he’s spending seven of the next 11 days in California.

After a crushing defeat in South Carolina Saturday, McCain revived his campaign with victories in Michigan and Arizona Tuesday. All last year, scores of GOP governors, senators and other pillars of the party establishment hitched themselves to Bush’s star largely because they saw him as a winner.

But seven weeks into the campaign, McCain has won three contested primaries and Bush just one. McCain now leads in committed delegates 95 to 57, forcing Bush to move to the far right and dimming his prospects as a sure winner.

Bush can claim he has handily won the Republican vote while McCain has had to rely on independents and Democrats to cinch his victories. McCain can say he’s the candidate who can pull together the coalition needed to win in November, but the campaign trail suddenly becomes uphill for the Arizonan.

The primary season is basically an intraparty affair. With some exceptions--especially in the early primaries--Republicans alone select their nominee and Democrats alone pick theirs. McCain’s big challenge is to make himself more to California Republicans than a maverick party member cozying up to Democrats and independents to win.

California has a new open primary in which any voter can cast a ballot for a candidate of any party. But only Republican votes will be counted in the allocation of GOP delegates, and only Democratic votes for theirs.

The looming battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party in California is reminiscent of the California Republicans’ last decisive GOP primary, Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater’s 1964 defeat of New York Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller. It was a nasty fight, and Goldwater went on to win the nomination.

California Republicans have become increasingly conservative--and electorally unsuccessful--in recent years. In this contest, McCain must convince GOP voters that he’s a Ronald Reagan conservative who can build the party by reaching out to moderates and independents.

The state’s leading Republican, Secretary of State Bill Jones, jumped the Bush camp last week, saying McCain has the right message for California Republicans. Bush, already campaigning in California, vows he will still win, and on paper the odds favor him. He leads McCain comfortably in recent California polls. But this is a wild political year. Forget the odds, the political wisdom and yesterday’s polls. Wednesday was day one of a California battle that could decide it all.