Handicapping the Breakout

Here’s a look at some films that opened last year in limited release and their chances of reaching a wider audience in 2000.

Best Bets

“The Hurricane”

Total to date: About $600,000, 11 screens, one week.

Goes wider: Today on about 125 screens and then upward of 1,500 on Jan. 14.

Handicap: Except for its star Denzel Washington, reviews were mixed and news stories have pointed out inaccuracies in the film.

On the other hand: This triumph-over-adversity tale was very well received in its initial weekend. The likelihood of an Oscar nomination for Washington and perhaps the film should bring in even bigger audiences.

“Cider House Rules”

Total to date: About $5 million, 332 screens, three weeks.

Goes wider: Today to 800 screens.

Handicap: The adaptation of the popular John Irving novel has no big box-office names, and reviews, while good, were not ecstatic.

On the other hand: The film’s sweet, touching tone plays well with mainstream audiences and Miramax knows how to lay the groundwork for a platform release expansion better than any other studio.

“Girl, Interrupted”

Total to date: About $500,000, nine screens, two weeks.

Goes wide: Jan. 14, 1,800 screens.

Handicap: Except for co-star Angelina Jolie, this distaff “Cuckoo’s Nest” received mixed notices.

On the other hand: The combo of Winona Ryder and Jolie will be a big draw to the young female audience, for whom there is nothing much in theaters over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend.

“The End of the Affair”

Total to date: About $1.3 million, 58 screens, four weeks.

Goes wider: Jan. 21 on about 800 screens.

Handicap: Lack of box-office names and sophisticated subject matter would seem to limit this film’s mainstream appeal.

On the other hand: Received numerous Golden Globe nominations, improving its Oscar chances. And there’s always room for a sexy love story in the marketplace, especially one with Ralph Fiennes.

“Magnolia”

Total to date: Almost $1 million, nine screens, three weeks.

Goes wide: Today in 1,000 theaters.

Handicap: Three-hour-plus running time; downbeat and confusing story line.

On the other hand: Tom Cruise steals every scene he’s in and appears to be a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination as best supporting actor.

Tough Sells

“Snow Falling on Cedars”

Total to date: Approximately $150,000, three screens, two weeks.

Goes wide: Today on about 1,100 screens.

Handicap: The novel adaptation didn’t get the kind of send-off reviews that this kind of art-house type film needs to succeed with upscale audiences.

On the other hand: Universal is selling it as a tragic love story, prominently featuring young actor Ethan Hawke, which should at least bring in the female and date-night audience.

“Cradle Will Rock”

Total to date: About $800,000, 38 screens, four weeks.

Goes wider: Jan. 21 on an additional 150 screens.

Handicap: The reviews on this Depression-era ensemble drama dampened expectations.

On the other hand: Sophisticated audiences are keeping this slice of ‘30s theatrical history alive in major markets.

“Angela’s Ashes”

Total to date: About $200,000, six screens, two weeks.

Goes wider: Jan. 21 in about 600 theaters.

Handicap: The reviews for this downbeat Irish tale were mixed and it got very little year-end attention. With no box-office names in the cast, it could slip through the cracks.

On the other hand: Frank McCourt’s novel was a sensation.

“Mansfield Park”

Total to date: About $2.2 million, 148 screens, seven weeks.

Goes wider: Holding in art-house theaters.

Handicap: This feminist interpretation of Jane Austen’s novel sharply divided critics and most of its cast is unknown even to art-house audiences.

On the other hand: Miramax knows how to target audiences for period pieces like “An Ideal Husband,” which became a solid art-house hit over a period of several months.

“Liberty Heights”

Total to date: About $2.5 million, 115 theaters, seven weeks.

Goes wider: Jan. 14 in 10 additional markets.

Handicap: Warner Bros. may have waited too long to capitalize on the excellent reviews for this small period drama with a mostly unknown cast.

On the other hand: The film is holding steady in big cities boasting cross-generational appeal.

“Topsy-Turvy”

Total to date: About $170,000, one theater in New York, three weeks.

Goes wider: Four L.A. theaters on Jan. 14, a handful of major markets on Jan. 21.

Handicap: A highly sophisticated, slow-moving film that would seem to have little multiplex appeal.

On the other hand: Critical hosannas and the New York Film Critics’ award for best picture have helped break records in New York and should help bring in the upscale movie crowd around the country. And don’t forget the Gilbert & Sullivan faithful.

“Boys Don’t Cry”

Total to date: Almost $3 million on 90 screens in a little less than three months.

Goes wider: Around Oscar time with no more than 200 runs.

Handicap: Tough subject matter for the suburbs.

On the other hand: Stellar reviews, a sweep of critics’ awards for star Hilary Swank and very strong word of mouth are keeping it alive in urban areas.

“Titus”

Total to date: About $100,000 in two theaters, two weeks.

Goes wider: Jan. 21 and Jan. 28 in major markets.

Handicap: Reviews were mixed for this bloody Shakespearean tale and it runs almost three hours.

On the other hand: A name cast headed by Anthony Hopkins and Jessica Lange and a wild-looking trailer should bring in the art-house crowd in big cities.