GOP Survey Offers Hope for Gaining Latino Voters

As the specter of former Gov. Pete Wilson loomed over their heads, Republican Party leaders proclaimed Thursday that the Democrats’ lead in attracting the increasingly important Latino vote is not as large nationally as they had feared, and that the GOP can bridge the gap simply by appealing to Latinos’ traditional social values.

At its annual winter conference here, the Republican National Committee unveiled a survey it said would serve as a road map for future efforts to target Latino voters in California, Florida, Texas, New York and other states with large Latino populations.

It also aired Spanish and English versions of a patriotic new television commercial intended to communicate the message that Latinos are truly Republicans at heart.

The survey found that 60% of Latinos would vote for a Democrat if a presidential election were held today--twice the percentage that would vote for a Republican.

However, it also suggested that only 45% of Latinos were committed Democrats and 30% were core Republicans, leaving 25% of Latino voters up for grabs. Capturing just half of those swing voters, the study suggested, could help the GOP obtain “Reaganesque wins” nationally.

“For years, the conventional wisdom has been that Hispanics would be the property of the Democratic machine,” said RNC Chairman Jim Nicholson. “This survey confirms that they’re more independent--and more conservative--than anybody thought.”

Even so, Democrats have captured most Latino votes in recent years. Bob Dole, the GOP’s 1996 presidential nominee, drew just 21% of Latino votes--down from Ronald Reagan’s 37% in 1984.

The Republican Party billed the “New America Survey” as the most exhaustive examination of Latino political attitudes ever undertaken by a political party.

But its own pollster disputed that assertion, saying it was only one of the largest, and GOP officials refused to disclose all but a handful of the actual survey findings and questions that led to their newfound optimism.

They acknowledged that the results for California were not as encouraging as those for Texas, where Republicans have come to dominate state politics largely by winning the battle for the Latino vote.

Nevertheless, the message was clear: Republicans nationally would embrace the strategy used by Gov. George W. Bush in Texas to lure Latinos into the fold, and would act as if Proposition 187 and other controversial policies pursued by Republicans in California under Wilson had never happened.

“It’s a new day,” said Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla of Texas, repeating one of Bush’s favorite catch phrases.

Proposition 187, which would have denied government services to illegal immigrants and their children, became a call to arms for many Latinos, who felt they were made scapegoats for the state’s recession-related problems. It was approved by voters but declared unconstitutional by the courts, and Democratic Gov. Gray Davis opted not to continue legal appeals.

California Democratic Party spokesman Bob Mulholland immediately dismissed the GOP presentation as Republican politics as usual.

“It’s the latest Republican Party Trojan horse,” he said. “Until they repudiate Pete Wilson and what happened here in California last decade, they are not going to do well.”

Nicholson declined to reveal how large the new GOP advertising push will be, but said it will be a multimillion-dollar campaign featuring commercials in English and Spanish. Some of the commercials will promote state and national Republican candidates, but all will focus on the party itself, he said.

The 60-second ad screened by the GOP leaders features a Laredo, Texas, man, Joe Guerra, and his large extended family as they celebrate the Fourth of July. As family members recite the Pledge of Allegiance, Guerra explains what it means to be an American.

It apparently means being a Republican.

“You know, even my 95-year-old father is today a Republican,” Guerra says. “He passed his values on to me and I passed then along to my children and grandchildren.”