Bush, Gore Hold Edge as Iowa Caucuses Near

Iowans appear poised to open the 2000 presidential race next Monday by bolstering each party’s front-runner, though Democrat Al Gore may be on track for a more emphatic send-off than Republican George W. Bush, a Times poll has found.

Drawing strong support among traditional Democratic constituencies such as union members, women and working-class voters, Gore has opened up a commanding 58% to 35% lead over former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey in the Democratic race, the survey found. Despite intense personal campaigning and a barrage of television ads this month, Bradley trails among every demographic group except his stronghold of men with college or graduate degrees.

Bush is also attracting consistent support across the breadth of his party in the GOP contest. But in a more splintered field, the survey found Bush’s margin is somewhat narrower than Gore’s: the Texas governor draws 43%, compared to 25% for publisher Steve Forbes. Conservative activist Alan L. Keyes has moved into a solid third with 10%, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who is not actively competing in the state, runs fourth with 8%. Gary Bauer has 7% and Sen. Orrin G. Hatch of Utah 1%.

The Times Poll, supervised by poll director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 571 likely Democratic and 557 likely Republican caucus-goers from Jan. 12 through Jan. 16. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points in each party.

Iowa will begin the voting in the battle for the parties’ presidential nominations on Monday, as activists gather for 2,142 precinct caucuses around the state. Partisans assemble in small meetings to state their preferences for president. Over the last quarter-century, the caucuses have played a significant role in winnowing the field.

Because the caucus turnout is small--only about 100,000 people historically have participated in each party--the results can sometimes be unpredictable, especially if bad weather further depresses the number of participants. But the size of the leads for Gore and Bush--not only in this survey, but others released recently in the state--suggest the only suspense this year may be over the front-runners’ margins of victory.

Although the poll finds that some opinions remain fluid, most voters look to be locking in on their decision. Two-thirds of Bush backers and 70% of Gore supporters say they are certain to vote for their man. Slightly smaller percentages of those backing Forbes (64%) and Bradley (62%) say they are certain of their choice. Only 6% of likely Republican voters and 7% of Democrats say they are undecided.

In a state where presidential politics has become a nearly permanent sideshow, it isn’t surprising that large numbers of likely caucus-goers said they watched the recent presidential debates here. But almost 9-in-10 in both parties said the encounters did not affect their choice. One candidate who has benefited from the exposure, though, is Keyes, the sometimes volcanic social conservative: A plurality of 26% of Republican voters who watched said Keyes struck them as “the most knowledgeable.”

Agriculture’s Influence Fading

Another surprise in the survey is the limited role of agriculture, which has drawn intense attention from the candidates--especially the Democrats over the last few weeks. Not too surprisingly, the two Southern candidates--Tennessee’s Gore and Texas’ Bush--hold substantial leads over their rivals from New Jersey (Bradley and Forbes) when voters were asked which candidate could do the best job handling farm problems.

But the changing nature of Iowa’s economy is measured in the finding that only 7% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans list agriculture as one of the major issues they want to hear candidates discuss. For the most part, voters here are concerned about the same issues as voters elsewhere: education, health care, Social Security and taxes (in that order) for the Democrats, and taxes, education and abortion (in order) for the Republicans.

In another striking finding, Bush appears to be benefiting here from one of the most controversial moments in the campaign: his declaration, in an Iowa debate last month, that Jesus Christ is the political philosopher who has influenced him most. Fully 61% of Iowa Republican voters said they believe that a candidate’s “relationship with Jesus Christ should play a part in his campaign”; only 36% disagreed. (Suggesting the difficulties that response might present for Bush in a general election, 78% of Democrats said religion shouldn’t play a role in the campaign.)

Sharon Verploeg, a Newton homemaker who responded to the poll, was considering Forbes but switched to Bush when he picked Jesus in the debate. “He seemed very sincere and that seemed to me a good sign,” she said.

The two races present very different profiles. The Democratic contest is marked by sharp demographic divides in attitudes toward the contenders. In the Republican race, support for the leading candidates is distributed much more evenly across the party.

There’s virtually no gender gap: Bush leads Forbes by 45% to 25% among men and by 40% to 25% among women. Even those numbers may be influenced more by the showings of the other candidates than by the intrinsic appeal of the two front-runners.

Both Keyes and Bauer run better with women than men--a finding that reflects the strength of the anti-abortion movement among Republican women in Iowa. (GOP women are much more likely than men to cite abortion as a factor in their choice,) Also, McCain, who has proved a magnet for men’s votes in New Hampshire, is not competing here--which leaves more men available to back Bush. Even without an active campaign, McCain still draws 11% of men likely to attend the caucuses.

Unexpectedly, conservative and moderate Republicans don’t differ much in their preferences either. About three-fourths of Iowa GOP voters call themselves conservative: They prefer Bush over Forbes by 44% to 25%, with Keyes now third at 12%. More moderate Republicans prefer Bush over Forbes by 40% to 26%. In that group, McCain runs third with 16%.

Similarly, Bush’s lead is the same among younger and older voters. His lead among voters earning $40,000 or less is only slightly smaller than his advantage among the more affluent.

By contrast, the two Democratic contenders have assembled much more distinct coalitions of support. Across the board, Gore is pounding Bradley among traditional Democratic constituencies, isolating his rival to a few beachheads among better-educated and more affluent voters, especially men.

Bradley is competitive among men, drawing 41% to Gore’s 51%. But Gore crushes Bradley 64% to 29% among women. Gore’s supporters in the survey included women like Jill, a Des Moines-area state employee who declined to give her last name. “He has a proven track record, he has experience, and he has been there for Iowa the past eight years,” she said of Gore.

Gore also benefits from a lopsided 63% to 29% advantage over Bradley among union households, which cast about one-fourth of the Democratic votes here. As elsewhere, Bradley’s strongest group is voters with college or graduate degrees: They prefer Bradley over Gore by 47% to 45%, a finding within the margin of error. (Bradley actually leads only among college-educated men, who give him a 17-point advantage; he trails by 12 points among college women.)

But Gore is flattening Bradley by 68% to 24% among voters with a high-school degree or less. Bradley runs slightly better among high-school educated men, but attracts microscopic support among women with only high school diplomas. Voters with some college, but not a four-year degree, likewise prefer Gore by just over 2-to-1.

Ideology, Income Have Modest Effect

More modest divisions are visible by ideology and income. Though Gore still leads with all of these groups, Bradley runs almost 10 points better with more affluent voters than with those earning less than $40,000 and slightly better with liberals than with more moderate Democrats.

William Melton, a retired teacher in Eldora, is one of those liberals drawn to Bradley. Originally, Melton says, he was leaning toward Gore, but as the vice president attacked Bradley’s health care plan as too expensive he shifted allegiance. “Gore talked like a Republican when he was discussing Bradley’s health care plan,” Melton says.

Attitudes toward President Clinton are also rippling through the contest. An overwhelming 88% of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers approve of the president’s job performance: Those voters prefer Gore by 2 to 1. “I don’t like what Clinton did as a person,” says Laura Stevens, a teacher in Milford who backs Gore, “but I think Gore has the good personal side and integrity that Clinton doesn’t have, plus he would continue along with the good side of his administration--the policies.”

Stevens notwithstanding, Gore’s position is generally much more tenuous among Democrats who personally dislike Clinton. Half of Iowa Democrats say they don’t like the president; those voters tilt toward Bradley, 48% to 44%. Gore leads by more than 3 to 1 among the other half of Democrats who personally like Clinton.

Asking voters why they support their candidates produces revealing insights into the contrasting nature of their appeals.

More than half of voters backing Forbes cite one reason: taxes. (Nearly half of all Republican voters say they would be more likely to support a candidate who backs the flat tax--Forbes’ signature issue.) Forbes also appears to be drawing support from social conservatives disappointed by Bush’s refusal to say he would require his running-mate and judicial appointments to be abortion foes.

“I think Bush has waffled a little bit on that,” says Judy Vogel, a speech instructor in Ankeny who is backing Forbes.

Bush voters give much more diverse reasons for supporting him. About one-fifth cite morals, 1-in-6, taxes; 1-in-7, the ability to win; and 1-in-9, experience. “It’s the entire mix of what he offers: the strength of character, the integrity . . . and he’s got the best record of all the candidates,” says Ben Furleigh, a City Council member in Clear Lake who backs Bush.

Plus, Furleigh adds, Bush has “the best chance” to win in November. He’s not alone in that sentiment: Regardless of who they support, a head-turning 75% of Iowa GOP voters say Bush would be the party’s strongest general election nominee. (Strikingly, even one-fourth of Democratic voters say they expect Bush to win in November.)

On the Democratic side, Bradley voters are more than twice as likely to cite personal traits--such as honesty or candor--as stands on issues when explaining their vote. By contrast, Gore voters mention issues such as education or health care almost as much as personal qualities. By far, honesty is the personal trait Bradley voters cite most as the reason for their support; among Gore backers, it’s experience.

In Iowa, at least, Gore has swayed the jury in the most heated issue dispute of the Democratic campaign. Asked about the candidates’ competing plans to cover those without health insurance, Democrats preferred Gore’s more incremental approach, 56% to 26%.

In recent years, Iowa has trended Democratic in presidential elections, but at the state level, it has grown increasingly ideologically polarized--a dynamic vividly evident in the poll. On virtually every question short of the weather, Iowa Republicans and Democrats now offer antithetical opinions.

A few examples: While 88% of Iowa Democrats approve of Clinton’s job performance, just 21% of Republicans do. More than 4-in-5 Democrats say the country is on the right track; just 2-in-5 Republicans agree. And while 90% of Republicans say Bush is smart enough to serve in the Oval Office, 48% of Democrats say he isn’t.

There is, however, one notable point of agreement. Asked whether they would devote virtually all of the expected federal budget surplus to a large tax cut (as Bush has proposed), or spend it primarily on Medicare and Social Security with a smaller tax cut (as Gore and McCain have urged in different ways), 90% of Iowa Democrats and 56% of Republicans prefer the smaller tax cuts. Even 58% of Bush voters agree with that sentiment.

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Iowa Caucus Matchups

Republicans*

George W. Bush: 43%

Steve Forbes: 25%

Alan L. Keyes: 10%

John McCain: 8%

Gary Bauer: 7%

Orrin G. Hatch: 1%

Don’t Know: 0%

*

Democrats*

Al Gore: 58%

Bill Bradley: 35%

Don’t Know: 7%

*

* Among those likely to participate in the Republican or Democratic caucuses.

Source LA Times Poll

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Iowa Voter Preferences

Both Democratic and Republican likely caucus goers are more inclined to vote for a candidate who supports campaign finance reform. But their views diverge on most other issues that the candidates are addressing, such as handgun registration and school vouchers.

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Who has a clearer vision to lead the country into the new century?

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All likely voters Democrats Republicans Al Gore 28% 54% 2% George W. Bush 20 3 38 Bill Bradley 15 27 3 Steve Forbes 13 6 21 Alan L. Keyes 7 1 13 John McCain 5 3 7 Gary Bauer 4 1 6 Orrin G. Hatch 1 -- 1 All equally (Volunteered) 1 -- 1 None of them (Volunteered) 2 2 2 Don’t know 4 3 6

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Which statement comes closer to your view: “A presidential candidate’s religious beliefs andhis relationship with Jesus Christ should play a part in his campaign,” or “A presidential candidate’s religious beliefs and his relationship with Jesus Christ are personal and should not be part of his campaign”?

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All likely voters Democrats Republicans Should play a part 40% 19% 61% Should not play a part 57 78 36 Don’t know 3 3 3

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Would you be more or less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who...

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All likely voters Democrats Republicans Opposes federal ethanol subsidies? More likely 7% 7% 6% Less likely 39 38 40 Would not affect my vote 51 52 50

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Supports school vouchers?

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All likely voters Democrats Republicans More likely 40% 25% 55% Less likely 29 41 17 Would not affect my vote 28 30 25

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Supports a 17% flat federal income tax?

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voters Democrats Republicans More likely 34% 21% 47% Less likely 36 46 26 Would not affect my vote 21 23 19

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Supports campaign finance reform?

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voters Democrats Republicans More likely 47% 52% 41% Less likely 9 5 13 Would not affect my vote 42 41 43

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Supports registration of all handguns?

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Voters Democrats Republicans More likely 46% 62% 30% Less likely 22 10 34 Would not affect my vote 31 27 34

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Notes: Questions were asked of those likely to participate in the Republican or Democratic caucases. “ -- “ indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where “Don’t know”responses are not shown.

Source: L.A. Times Poll Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll.

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HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Times Poll contacted 1,128 likely Iowa caucus participants, including 571 who are likely to attend the Democratic caucus and 557 who are likely to attend the Republican caucus. Likely participants are those who said they are “pretty sure they will” go or “they know they will” go to their caucuses on Jan. 24th. The poll was conducted by telephone Jan. 12 though 16.Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all possible exchanges. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and registration. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and for both Democratic and Republican caucus goers it is 4 points. For certain other subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.