Winning Back His Base

On paper, winning a presidential race is easy. First, you firm up your base among party loyalists. Then, you go after persuadable voters, 20%-25% of the electorate that has little allegiance to either political party. Finally you turn out your base in large numbers on election day. Simple enough. Simple, that is, unless you’re Vice President Al Gore.

As the presidential campaign enters the convention phase, the base-firming work of a presidential campaign should be over. Texas Gov. George W. Bush, unless he picks a pro-choice running mate, has already secured the Republican base. But Gore is still working on his. The picture last week of Gore in front of the teacher unions is one we should have been looking at months ago. But the fact that Gore still feels obligated to pursue loyal Democratic constituencies like teachers tells you pages about his problems among traditional Democratic voters.

There is no single reason why Gore is in this situation. For each Democratic constituency, his problem is specific. Among labor, his steadfast support of the North American Free Trade Agreement and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization still dogs him. Despite AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney’s public position that Gore had no other choice and labor remains fully behind him, among the rank and file it is a different story. These blue-collar Democrats, many former Reagan Democrats brought back to the party by Bill Clinton, still resent Gore’s trade record. Beyond that, Gore’s personality is not well-suited to laborites.

Among blacks and other minorities, Gore is also suffering. Despite Bush’s appeal to Latino voters (which I predict will fade in the fall), Gore should be doing extremely well among African Americans. With this group it is not a matter of issues (any Democrat wins on issues) but rather a matter of style. Clinton is adored in the African American community because he feels comfortable with them, and they with him. Interestingly, the two most successful Democratic presidents among African Americans have been Clinton and Jimmy Carter, both Southern governors.

White Southern Democrats seem to understand black culture better than their fellow politicians in the rest of the country. Why a Tennessean like Gore doesn’t seem to connect to blacks is difficult to explain. Just look at him in a black church on Sunday and then look at Clinton. Clinton can sing “Amazing Grace” and swing with the best of them. Gore tries and looks like the proverbial fish out of water.

Even among environmentalists, where Gore should find his greatest strength, he has problems. But here, Gore’s problems are of his own making. For years, Gore has taken the lead on environmental issues. But in his efforts to move to the political center, he has purposely left environmental issues off the table to avoid being tagged an enviro-liberal. Normally, this would be strategically wise, but environmentalists see in Gore’s silence a wavering on his environmental positions.

So what can Gore do? Not much. What will energize the Democratic base is Bush. Gore has to depend on Bush and the GOP’s record scaring the Democratic base back into line. Bush is doing everything possible to avoid this. But the key is to expose Bush and his “compassionate conservatism” for what it is: a convenient cover for right-wing GOP programs that hurt base Democratic voters.

Labor, for example, needs to understand that Bush is not only a NAFTA and WTO lover as well, but a right-to-worker of the worst sort. If ever there was a candidate with a history of kowtowing to big bidness, it’s little George. His record in Texas on behalf of working people has been, at best, a “D,” but give that boy an “A+” for his work on behalf of bidness interests in the Lone Star State!

As for environmentalists, the Gore campaign need only point its nose toward the Texas Gulf Coast and the smell of corporate pollution that has made Texas one of the most polluted states.

Among African Americans, and Latinos for that matter, Bush’s record and the appalling modern history of the GOP are key to an energized minority Gore vote. They need to be told Texas has the largest number of children in poverty in any state; the largest number of uninsured children in America; and, despite Bush’s vaunted education claims, many public schools in Texas are disgraceful. Who is most affected by all the above? Minorities, both Latinos and blacks.

So, for Gore, the key to fortifying his base is to expose Bush. Since the economy is working in Gore’s favor, he’ll find that attacking Bush and his record will also go a long way toward attracting persuadable voters.

Bottom line: Two-thirds of Gore’s winning strategy lies with Bush. Any wonder why this will be a negative campaign? *