Doubts and Opportunities

The death of Syria’s President Hafez Assad brings new uncertainties along with new opportunities to the country he ruled for nearly 30 years and to the region where his influence vastly exceeded the military and economic resources at his command.

The uncertainties stem from the threat to stability that arises when any autocrat dies. In his final years Assad acted to assure a dynastic succession, grooming his son, Bashar, to follow him. But ambitious men long in Assad’s shadow may have their own ideas about who should succeed the late president. Assad’s death offers Syria a chance to reorient his policies, not just to make peace with Israel but to revive its stagnant and corruption-riddled economy, ease decades of repression and end its political isolation.

Bashar Assad, 34, is literally the accidental heir to power. If the president’s eldest son, Basil, had not died in a car crash in 1994 Bashar would probably still be pursuing a quiet career as an ophthalmologist. Though he has had greater visibility in the last few years, his political skills remain largely untested. That is certain to change very soon.

Bashar will have to move quickly to nail down the loyalties of the armed forces, Syria’s many and competing security services and the ruling Baath Party. He must also guard against a comeback by his uncle, Rifaat, stripped of power after attempting a coup against Hafez Assad in 1984 but still retaining some supporters in the military and intelligence services. The challenge facing Bashar has religious as well as political elements. The Assads, along with many who have benefited from the late president’s rule, belong to the small and secretive Alawite sect, whose dominance has long been resented by Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority.

Credit Hafez Assad with being a shrewd political tactician who was adept at leveraging Syria’s modest strength to win inordinate attention and influence. But it wasn’t these skills that secured his iron grip on power. He endured because he was a ruthless dictator whose intolerance of all dissent was enforced with a brutality indistinguishable from that of Saddam Hussein, his ideological rival in neighboring Iraq. Hafez Assad ruled by fear and torture and killing, and the graves of many thousands of Syrians are the signposts of his reign.

Bashar Assad is of a different time and apparently of a different outlook--more worldly, more pragmatic, less burdened with the dead weight of the past. If he achieves and can consolidate power there’s probably a good chance that Syrians will begin to see a better life, and a reasonable chance that the peace process with Israel can in time be completed.