Company Town Film Profit Report

This report is based on projections of total U.S. box-office gross from a consensus of industry sources and studio financial models. The U.S. returns represent only 20% of a film’s final revenue, which includes income from video, TV and overseas theatrical release. Typical industry marketing costs are factored into this profit analysis. Results for the weekend of June 16-18:

Highlights:

* In what is continuing to be a disappointing summer for Disney, the studio miscalculated the mainstream appeal of its earlier Imax release “Fantasia 2000,” clouding its long-term profit picture, though the studio will reportedly return it to Imax theaters in the fall. Similarly, “Dinosaur” now appears to have sunk from a powerful potential franchise to a break-even proposition--and only after all ancillary markets are in. The studio’s two other releases, “Gone in 60 Seconds” and “Shanghai Noon,” will cross into the black only after international release, in which both films should fare slightly better than in the U.S.

* Paramount has a potentially modest franchise on its hands with the remake of “Shaft.” If it holds, “Shaft” could generate enough of a profit to warrant a sequel and possibly even spawn a TV series.

* For Miramax’s Dimension label, the low-budget “Boys and Girls” will only break even, and that’s only because of its modest budget.

* Fox’s animation gamble on “Titan A.E.” seems unlikely to pay off. Without any promotional tie-ins and merchandising revenue, the studio can only hope to make up some of the deficit in home video. After the relative disappointment of “Anastasia” and the write-off of at least half the budget on “Titan,” it’s unlikely that Fox will continue to produce animated films.

$$Mega-Moneymakers ($50 million or more in profit)

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Box- Estimated office cost, in Movie title Studio rank millions Mission: Impossible 2 Paramount 4 $100 Gladiator DreamWorks/Univ. 8 107 Road Trip DreamWorks SKG 10 16 Big Momma’s House Fox 3 33

Projected U.S. box-office receipts, Movie title in millions Mission: Impossible 2 $200 Gladiator 170 Road Trip 68 Big Momma’s House 98

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$Moneymakers ($10 million or more in profit)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Shaft Paramount 1 $46 $70

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?Tossups ($5 million in profit or loss)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Dinosaur Buena Vista 7 $200 $140 Gone in 60 Seconds Buena Vista 2 90 90 Fantasia 2000 Buena Vista 11 80 60 Shanghai Noon Buena Vista 9 55 55 Boys and Girls Dimension 6 16 20 Small Time Crooks DreamWorks SKG 12 18 17

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Losers (more than $5 million in loss)

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Projected Box- Estimated U.S. box-office office cost, in receipts, Movie title Studio rank millions in millions Titan A.E. Fox 5 $75 $35

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Notes: Cost estimates are for production only. Only half of box-office receipts come back to the studio.

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