Study: Seniors Will Be Nearly 25% of O.C. Population by 2020

Senior citizens will soon be the largest age group in Orange County, jumping to nearly a quarter of the population by 2020, a study released Wednesday shows.

As the baby boomers who spurred the county’s growth during the last decades reach retirement age, they will require health care, social services and housing that the county is not prepared to provide, the Chapman University report says.

People 60 and older now constitute about 14% of the county’s population. By 2020, that will rise to nearly 23% or about 733,000 people, the study predicts.

James L. Doti, president of Chapman University and the study’s author, said the effects of this shift will reach deep into the county. Government agencies, large companies, even mom-and-pop businesses will be forced to adjust.

The population change “is largely being ignored,” Doti said. “But it needs to be given attention by just about everyone.”

Supervisor Cynthia Coad said the county is in only the early stages of addressing the looming need for increased funding. She said the Board of Supervisors is working with the area’s aging agencies to identify where help will be needed most.

“I can see that it needs to get a lot more interest,” she said.

Health care agencies in particular will face increased demand for services from seniors who want to remain independent but will need some type of in-home care. Agencies are already struggling under its current caseload, officials with the county’s Council on Aging said.

Government funding has been especially tight in past years, said council director Pamala McGovern. While allotments are increasing, the agency must be aggressive about fund-raising to help those in need, she said.

Even home building will be affected, according to the study, which predicts a drop in demand for family housing and a sharp increase in housing for seniors.

Small businesses will need to change their products to make them appealing to seniors in order to remain competitive, Doti said.

Though the increase of the senior population is a national trend, Doti said, its effects will be felt more acutely in Orange County because of its growth patterns.

Those who settled in Orange County during its booming 1950s are now over 60. Nowadays with less room in the area available for new, young families, the county’s annual growth rate has fallen to less than 2%, down by 12% since the ‘50s, Doti said.

The study’s conclusion that the county is ill-prepared for the demographic change has some baby boomers worried about their future.

“Baby boomers are used to having a nice lifestyle,” said Mary Kavli, 53. “This [reality] is going to have a big impact on a lot of people.”

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Senior County

The number of senior citizens in Orange County will grow significantly by 2020, representing nearly a quarter of the population, according to a report released Wednesday.

Source: Chapman University