Support, Confusion Found in New Poll on Measure F

A poll released Wednesday shows Measure F is favored by a slight majority of likely voters, but also found that many remain unfamiliar with the initiative on Tuesday’s ballot.

Conducted by Cal State Fullerton, the poll showed Orange County’s hottest ballot measure receiving 51% support from likely voters countywide, with 28% opposed. A sizable number--21%--remain undecided with election day less than a week away.

The results are similar to a poll commissioned by The Times’ Orange County edition and released earlier this week. It found a larger margin of support for Measure F, with 58% of likely voters supporting it.

If successful, Measure F would require the approval of two-thirds of countywide voters before county supervisors could build an airport, hazardous waste landfill or large jails near residential areas. Opponents of an airport at El Toro want its passage to halt airport planning.

The university’s results, released through the Social Science Research Center, reflected the views of 542 randomly selected voters between Feb. 15 and 29 who said they were likely to vote Tuesday. The margin of error is 3.75 percentage points.

The poll was jointly released by the Orange County Business Council, which opposes Measure F and supports the county’s airport plans. The university’s research center is conducting quarterly polls on a variety of issues for the business council.

Support for Measure F was strongest in South County, where a coalition of eight cities has led the fight against the county’s airport plans for the 4,700-acre El Toro Marine base, which closed in July.

There, 66% of likely voters said they supported the measure. The initiative had a lesser edge in North County, with 45% of likely voters lending their support. The poll found that fully a third of South County voters were unfamiliar with Measure F, while 69% of voters in North County were unaware of its content.

That level of awareness means many voters will be making up their minds in the next few days and will be receptive to last-minute appeals from either side, said Phil Gianos, the university’s acting chair of political science.

About one in five voters told pollsters they had not yet made up their minds. The percentage of undecided voters was higher in North County, which contains about 70% of the county’s registered voters.

“There are people out there without much awareness of the issue,” Gianos said. “A lot of people will make up their minds late. That’s why God invented last-minute mailers.”

Measure F backers called the university poll results “very comforting.”

“It shows what we’ve been saying all along, that Measure F will pass,” said Jeffrey Metzger, chairman of Citizens for Safe and Healthy Communities, the group leading the fight against the airport.

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* For more information on the airport debate, click onto The Times’ newly expanded Web site at https://www.latimes.com/eltoro. The site includes a comprehensive Measure F voter guide, special research sections, interactive bulletin boards, an insider column and the latest news.