52% Turnout Predicted for Primary

Secretary of State Bill Jones predicted Thursday that 52% of California’s registered voters will cast ballots on election day.

If he’s right, turnout Tuesday would be the highest for a presidential primary in the state in 16 years. It also would set a record for the largest number of people participating in a primary election in California history.

Jones based his prediction partly on the experience of states that already have held primaries and saw turnout shatter previous records.

In Michigan and South Carolina, turnout was double that of the last presidential contest. In Virginia, long lines of waiting voters stretched out onto sidewalks.

Analysts say it is not difficult to grasp what is motivating the allegedly apathetic electorate: a close presidential contest--and the implication that every vote counts.

Supporters of Texas Gov. George W. Bush are eager to get his core GOP voters to the polls, while Arizona Sen. John McCain is attracting maverick Republicans, independents and crossover Democrats.

Although a similar dynamic exists between the contenders for the Democratic nomination, Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, analysts say the GOP race deserves most of the credit for the turnout spike.

Jones said the earlier date of the primary also will swell turnout, because it means California is a player in the nominating sweepstakes.