McCain’s Last Stand

Texas Gov. George W. Bush’s sweep last Tuesday stabilized his campaign, restored his psychological momentum and leaves Arizona Sen. John McCain facing a dire scenario heading into Super Tuesday, when California’s 162 delegates could well decide the nominee.

McCain’s maverick campaign has been a daring balancing act: trying to lay claim to Ronald Reagan’s torch while inspiring a variety of new voters to participate in GOP primaries. He has a three-pronged strategy: 1) continue to describe Bush’s negative South Carolina tactics as unfair, directed against his personal heroism and divisive; 2) blast self-proclaimed leaders of the religious right (Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell) as hijackers of the GOP to forge a coalition of moderates, secular conservatives, independents, Catholics and new voters; and 3) appeal to Republicans who did not vote in past GOP primaries. Will this strategy, so promising just 14 days ago, deliver on Tuesday, or is cross-pressuring the GOP establishment a recipe for disaster in California?

Assessing the underpinnings of this strategy, a troubling trend emerged on the heels of McCain’s impressive Michigan win: an inability to secure votes of partisan Republicans. Only in his home state of Arizona was McCain supported by a majority of registered Republicans. In Virginia, he was smashed by the GOP base: 28% to Bush’s 69%.

McCain lost Virginia by the same margin he trailed by before he attacked Robertson and Falwell in an appeal to moderates and independents. Put another way, McCain’s strategy probably increased turnout of his coalition but also spurred cultural conservatives to vote. Yet, McCain’s plan may still appeal to voters in Super Tuesday states with significant Catholic populations--California, Missouri, Ohio, New York and Massachusetts.

McCain is now in the precarious position of needing to significantly boost his performance with GOP regulars to win delegates in closed primary states (i.e., California), while maintaining his margins with new and less-traditional voters so he can continue to claim to be the stronger candidate against Vice President Al Gore. This is a tall order.

Furthermore, two undisciplined moves by McCain have hurt his situation and forced him off message: initially pulling out of the California debate, and quarreling with Michael Reagan.

Is it too late for McCain in the Golden State? In the remaining time before Super Tuesday, the McCain campaign needs to make sure it has accounted for the following checklist, an uncertain proposition given the difficult balancing act required by his game plan:

* Effectively clarify his stance with regard to the religious right and emphasize that Christian conservatives are welcome in his “tent.”

* Resolutely pronounce his view of what the GOP should stand for in the coming years: “We are the party of Ronald Reagan, not Pat Robertson. We are the party of Theodore Roosevelt, not the party of special interests. We are the party of Abraham Lincoln, not Bob Jones.”

* Use his story in Vietnam to portray his deep, inspiring personal faith.

* Target fiscally conservative GOP voters by characterizing his tax plan as responsible because it pays down the debt, shores up Social Security and provides tax relief.

* Appeal to California Republicans not active in past primaries by defining how his agenda is right for the future and connects with their daily concerns. This means addressing the nagging question: “If your campaign is symbolized by reform, why haven’t we heard about education reform and health-care reform?”

* Finally, McCain and Bush have each campaigned as a “Reagan Republicans.” McCain must demonstrate this by clearly articulating a message of integrity, fiscal conservatism, inclusive politics and an appeal to America’s greater spirit.

This time, it probably is true: California will decide our nominee. The winner will be the candidate who delivers his message and accounts for the complexities of a 22-million voter electorate made up, in part, by Republicans of all stripes. As a Navy pilot and tactician, McCain should understand it’s imperative to adjust strategy in the face of battle and quit fighting past skirmishes.