A Day for Front-Runners

With primaries faster and earlier than ever, and far more spirited than in most presidential campaigns, the 2000 contest reached a climactic point Tuesday with big victories for Democratic Vice President Al Gore and Republican Gov. George W. Bush of Texas.

More primaries are ahead, but the landscape heavily favors Gore and Bush, particularly in the South next Tuesday. On the Democratic side, Gore energized himself after a rocky start last year, moved his headquarters from Washington to Nashville and went on the attack against challenger Bill Bradley. The shake-up paid off handsomely as Gore won all 11 Democratic primaries Tuesday, including the keystone states of California, New York and Ohio. There is no question now that Gore will become the nominee in Los Angeles in August.

The GOP picture was only slightly less clear. Bush is the almost certain GOP nominee. His victories Tuesday--especially his big margins in California and Ohio--were impressive. But they were shadowed a bit by strong efforts by Arizona Sen. John McCain in New York state and in the popular vote in California.

California’s new open primary aside, presidential nominations basically are intraparty affairs, and McCain never was able to crack the registered-Republican vote, which in California went to Bush by nearly 2 to 1.

McCain won a large number of independents in California but not enough to carry him ahead of Bush in the nonbinding popular vote. That robs McCain of the argument that he would be a stronger candidate against Gore in the fall.

What now? Bradley almost certainly will drop out, possibly today. He was never able to articulate a forceful reason to choose him over an incumbent vice president running in a time of peace and prosperity. Bradley’s message also got lost in the excitement surrounding McCain’s own reform program.

McCain must decide whether to carry his campaign to the convention. He has no chance of winning the nomination, barring some dramatic unforeseen event; if he stays in, he risks being seen as a hard-losing spoiler who can only hurt the GOP in the fall campaign.

As they point toward November, Gore and Bush have their work to do. If Bush is to win, he must broaden his base beyond loyal Republicans. That may be difficult to do after he aligned himself so strongly--and unnecessarily, as it turned out--with the religious right to win the Feb. 19 South Carolina primary. In his speech to supporters Tuesday night Bush was already steering toward the center, with welcoming words for immigrants and declarations of compassion for the poor.

Gore’s job will be to win back the Democrats who voted for Bradley and McCain and to appeal to independents. Did the Democrats defect because they are unhappy with the Clinton-Gore administration? Or were they merely attracted by McCain’s hero image and reform message? As usual, this will be the battleground. The answer may not be known until November.