‘Outsiders’ Are on the Outs Now in House Races

He seemed a classic candidate in the Jesse Ventura mold: Jon “the Illustrious” Stewart, another professional wrestler who tried to make a virtue of his political inexperience while running for Congress.

But Stewart’s campaign fizzled. After spending a mere $1,600, he dropped out of a crowded Republican race for an open House seat in Illinois and the GOP nomination went to a political insider in the state’s primary this week.

Stewart’s fate is emblematic of a broader trend in this year’s intense battle for control of the House: The 1990s phenomenon of “outsider” candidates running for political office--a fad that may have reached its zenith when Ventura won Minnesota’s governorship in 1998--has faded from view.

Instead, the roster of House candidates in key contests around the country, including California, is packed with political pros.

Even as John McCain’s presidential bid stoked the flames of anti-establishment fervor, this might be called the Year of the Insider as far as House elections are concerned. It is, in many ways, a return to a long-standing tradition. Political novices have long been the exception rather than the rule in a political system that has increasingly turned public service into a profession.

But the dearth of strong outsider candidates also reflects some unique crosscurrents. These include, ironically, the effects of term-limit laws. In California and 17 other states, veteran lawmakers with their careers now capped in Legislatures are eyeing Congress to preserve their political careers (term limits do not apply to federal offices).

Hostility Toward Incumbents Cools

Two other factors also are at work:

* While McCain’s campaign tapped into a rich vein of anti-Washington sentiment, hostility toward incumbent House members is nowhere near as intense as it was in the early to mid-1990s--in large part because of the booming economy.

* Faced with soaring campaign costs in the relatively small number of tightly contested House races this year, the political parties have put a premium on recruiting candidates with established fund-raising bases.

As a result, this fall’s election is likely to produce a class of new House members that looks little like the class of 1994, when Republicans took control of Congress and about half of the 87 members never had held elective office before.

“Citizen legislators making their way into public life are one of the casualties of exceedingly good economic times,” said Rep. Marshall “Mark” Sanford (R-S.C.), a real estate investor who was elected in 1994 and is retiring from the House to keep his term-limits promise. “The idea of electing a different kind of person so we can change this place is not going to reverberate when people like the way things are.”

The trend is especially evident in California. The top three Democratic prospects for toppling House Republican incumbents, for example, are a state senator, a former House member and an assemblywoman.

In another race--the fight for the San Jose-area seat that GOP Rep. Tom Campbell gave up to challenge Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein--Republican hopes of holding the district rest with a state assemblyman. His Democratic opponent is also an assemblyman.

To be sure, there is a smattering of candidates this year with nonpolitical backgrounds who could end up in the House. In Nebraska, Tom Osborne--the renowned former football coach at the University of Nebraska--is considered a shoo-in for an open seat. And in California, Rep. Calvin M. Dooley (D-Visalia) is facing a stiff challenge from television broadcaster Rich Rodriguez.

But most other political newcomers running for the House--such as Republican Jerry Doyle, an actor challenging Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)--are considered longshots.

Few Beginners Expected to Win

Many states have not yet voted in their congressional primaries. But interviews with political analysts and a review of candidates running in the nation’s most hotly contested House races indicate that precious few political beginners will be showing up in the House in January.

Of the 16 House races identified by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report as tossups, only three seem certain to feature candidates with no previous electoral experience--and two of those are sons of former governors.

“It does seem like it’s a more experienced batch of candidates that’s running, said David Canon, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin who has written a book on political newcomers in Congress.

The climate for such candidates was different a few years earlier, when anti-Washington sentiment was rampant, fueling Ross Perot’s 1992 independent presidential campaign and the term-limits movement. The label “career politician” became a slur. Even people with political credentials often campaigned as outsiders, pledging to shake up Washington.

That dynamic was especially strong in 1994, when sweeping Republican gains in Senate and House races gave the party control of both chambers. Some of the 1994 House GOP freshmen were, in fact, politically experienced activists exaggerating their outsider status but the class still included a large number of true novices. They included a veterinarian (John Ensign of Nevada), a former football player (Steve Largent of Oklahoma) and a physician (Tom Coburn of Oklahoma).

Sanford, the South Carolina congressman, played up his outsider status heavily by campaigning in hunting garb, declaring “open season” on career politicians.

The 1996 election brought in another, smaller crop of House members who had never held political office, including Democrat Walter Capps, a professor from Santa Barbara (who died in 1997 and was succeeded by his widow, Lois Capps, a nurse), and Ellen Tauscher of Pleasanton, Calif., a business executive.

The 1998 election brought few outsiders to the House, but Ventura’s election created a stir that some thought might echo in 2000. Not only did Stewart launch his ill-fated campaign in Illinois but another wrestler, Bob Blacklund, decided to run as a Republican against Rep. John Larson (D-Conn.). In Los Angeles’ San Fernando Valley, GOP leaders urged Jeff “Skunk” Baxter, former lead guitarist of Steely Dan and the Doobie Brothers, to challenge Sherman. In the end, however, Baxter said no and Blacklund remains a longshot.

With the economy booming, the old advantages of experience have reasserted themselves, political experts say. Stewart, as he reflected on his failed candidacy, sounded almost nostalgic for the days of a sour economy and alienated voters.

“Had this been a bad fiscal year for America, had the stock market been down, I would have had a groundswell,” he said.

Experience Counts

In the current environment, a key reason elected officials make good candidates is simply that they have done it before.

“They have experience raising money and putting together the right endorsements,” said Jill Schroeder, press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Having a ready-made list of donors is particularly important in the tightly contested races that will determine whether the GOP holds on to its narrow House majority. With that at stake, each of these contests will be unusually expensive.

“You have a much better chance of beating an incumbent or taking a seat if you have a political network to draw on,” said Erik Smith, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

He cited California Assemblyman Mike Honda, whom the Democrats recruited to run for Campbell’s open seat. “For anyone else, the idea of raising $1 million would scare a lot of people out,” Smith said. “But for Honda--this is a guy who raised half a million dollars when he ran for the Assembly.”

Honda’s GOP opponent, Assemblyman Jim Cunneen, should be similarly well-funded.

Elsewhere in California, the three most vulnerable House Republican incumbents confront experienced and well-positioned Democratic rivals:

* Rep. Brian P. Bilbray of San Diego faces Susan A. Davis, a six-year Assembly veteran who previously served on the San Diego Unified School District board.

* Rep. Steven T. Kuykendall of Rancho Palos Verdes won an open seat two years ago when Democrat Jane Harman ran unsuccessfully for governor. Now Harman is trying to win her old seat back.

* Rep. James E. Rogan of Glendale squares off against state Sen. Adam Schiff, whose district includes the boundaries of the House seat. “The best campaign I have is the service my district office provides,” Schiff said.

The supply of state legislators in the candidate pool seems to be getting a boost from term limits even if, as in Schiff’s case, the forced departure date is a few years away.

State Sen. Hilda Solis (D-El Monte)--due to give up her seat in 2002--caught the attention of political analysts nationwide with her defeat of Rep. Matthew G. Martinez (D-Monterey Park) in California’s March 7 primary. Martinez so far is the sole House incumbent to lose a primary contest.

Sandy Maisel, a political scientist at Colby College in Maine, said a review of House candidates in early primary states with term limits indicates that more state lawmakers are running for Congress this year.

“Even if they are not term limited out of office yet, state Legislatures are no longer the place you can make your career,” Maisel said.