Viewers Abandoning New Shows for Old Favorites

Prime-time television apparently isn’t much different from politics: Unless presented with a compelling reason to make a change, people usually choose the incumbent.

Much was made as the new TV season got underway of the big ratings for many new programs, demonstrating that the major networks still possess the promotional machinery required to launch series--always a dicey proposition in this age of cable, the Internet and remote controls.

Yet as established favorites have gradually made their debut--many of them delayed by the Olympics, baseball playoffs and presidential debates--a clear pattern has emerged, with many viewers who tried those new shows appearing to bail out just as quickly if a series doesn’t grab them right off the bat.

All but one of the season’s 30 new shows on the six broadcast networks have premiered, and the networks are still feeling reasonably good about people’s continued willingness to sample new programs despite the host of options available to them.

“That remains the No. 1 challenge that we have,” said David Poltrack, CBS’ executive vice president of planning and research, pointing out that the percentage of U.S. homes sampling the average program has dropped by more than 50% since 1980, when most people received just a handful of channels.

Sampling, however, is only half the battle, the rest being whether those viewers who do tune in initially hang around for the long haul. And the tendency now is for people to look elsewhere if a series doesn’t bowl them over right away--especially in time periods where new shows face a well-known franchise on another network.

In short, with so many channels available, viewers appear less forgiving of, and more commitment-phobic toward, new series. “Audiences only give you one or two samplings of a new program before they decide whether to stay or go,” said Alan Wurtzel, NBC’spresident of research and media development, who noted that years ago--when the networks dominated the landscape by default--series were afforded more time to hit their stride.

The atypical, topsy-turvy scheduling this fall has been a boon for new programs. Fox’s sci-fi entry “Dark Angel,” from “Titanic” director James Cameron, twice played opposite presidential debates, which preempted all regular programming on the major networks. That freed millions of young viewers unmoved by politics to take a look at the series, which has received a full-season order.

NBC’s quirky “Ed” also benefited from Fox’s decision to postpone its Sunday night lineup until after the World Series, sparing the show thus far from vying with “The Simpsons” and “Malcolm in the Middle” for younger viewers.

The problem is that people also seem reasonably happy with the shows they’re already watching. Consider “Gideon’s Crossing,” which ABC introduced to impressive numbers while NBC was running the Major League Baseball playoffs. Once the Andre Braugher medical drama had to take on “Law & Order,” millions faithfully switched back to the 10-year-old NBC show.

The same happened to NBC’s “Deadline,” starring Oliver Platt, which opened to 14.3 million viewers but dwindled to just 6.8 million this week--prompting its cancellation--when confronted with the deadly combination of “Everybody Loves Raymond” and “Ally McBeal,” which had been delayed due to Fox’s baseball coverage.

Even CBS’ “Bette,” the belle of the ball at 8 p.m. Wednesdays, no doubt enjoyed being the sole comedy in its time slot--until this week, that is, when Fox tossed an original episode of “The Simpsons” at it. Against that competition, viewing of the Bette Midler sitcom dropped to an estimated 10.7 million viewers--off more than 30%, or about 5 million viewers, compared to its premiere.

“The real test of all these shows is when you get up against the regular schedules and there’s no stunting,” said Bill Cella, executive vice president of broadcasting and programming at the ad agency Universal McCann.

Trying to Create

‘Appointment Television’

CBS is enjoying the most success with new programs this fall, though its results underscore the advantage of avoiding strong incumbents.

In the case of three new CBS series that continue to do well, none competes with a well-established entertainment program in its time slot. Those shows are “The District,” which doesn’t face any network series at 10 p.m. Saturdays, with ABC and NBC offering movies that night; “CSI: Crime Scene Investigation,” where the Friday alternative includes two series with limited allure, ABC’s “Norm” and the WB teen drama “Popular”; and “Yes, Dear,” a comedy sandwiched between “King of Queens” and “Everybody Loves Raymond” on Monday evenings.

By contrast, other series that got off to promising starts--including “Gideon’s Crossing,” “The Fugitive,” “The Michael Richards Show” and “The Geena Davis Show”--experienced serious declines when returning hits such as “Law & Order,” “Providence,” “That ‘70s Show” and “Frasier” made a belated season debut.

Getting shows to take root has become a complex process, with few instant sensations. The buzzwords within the networks is “appointment television”--creating programs viewers make a special effort to see each week.

Yet these bonds generally require time to forge, as evidenced by the gradual growth of such programs as NBC’s “The West Wing” and its other sophomore drama “Third Watch,” which is recruiting viewers this season in a difficult Monday time slot.

The dilemma, as always, is identifying shows that have the poten

tial to become a slow-building hit versus standing by a show that doesn’t possess the broad appeal to truly blossom ratings-wise, such as ABC’s two-season experience with “Sports Night.”

The current environment, Wurtzel said, “puts an incredibly unrealistic burden on programs to besuccesses right out of the box. . . . It takes time. That’s why Broadway shows go out of town. On television, you premiere in front of everybody.”

Of course, focusing on competitive pressure risks ignoring the obvious--that the negative appraisal of most critics coming into the new TV season was accurate, the networks didn’t develop many worthwhile new programs and viewers are rejecting them based on merit.

One network executive, who asked not to be identified, said his long-term fear is people will simply stop showing up for premieres if the network’s programs keep disappointing them.

Still, CBS’ Poltrack argues that network development isn’t always to blame when series don’t make the ratings grade. After all, a new show usually goes into a time period precisely because the network was struggling there, and the average new program is scheduled against at least one established hit.

Wurtzel, his NBC counterpart, agrees. “The frustrating thing today,” he said, “is you can have a great program and it will fail because you can’t get people to sample it.”