A County’s Vote Matters

Going into Tuesday’s general election Orange County has more residents registered to vote than at any time in its history. The big questions are how they will vote, whether they will follow the historic patterns of the past, and what those votes will mean. What matters most is that people exercise their franchise.

Republicans hold a sizable lead in voter registration, as generally has been the case, except for a brief period of Camelot for the Democrats in the late 1970s when they held a razor-thin .3% advantage. But Republicans no longer have a majority. This election year their strength has dipped to just 49.2%. Democratic registration also dropped. It’s now at 32.2%, its lowest level in almost 50 years.

What has risen, dramatically in the last several years, is the number of “declined to state” independents and those choosing a minor party, such as Ralph Nader’s Green Party.

Orange County has always been high on the political radar screen. Republicans historically have counted upon it, along with San Diego County, to offset the heavy Democratic votes in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay area in the battle for the state’s 54 electoral votes. In the kind of close presidential election expected this year, offsetting Democratic margins in the state possibly could help determine who occupies the White House for the next four years. Republicans who make up the base appear more energized this year than in the presidential elections of 1992 and 1996. At the same time, Democratic inroads in legislative and congressional races in recent years have focused special attention on the voting patterns of recent immigrants.

With a lower percentage of Republicans and about one in five voters showing no major party preference, can the county be counted upon to deliver so strongly for Bush? Will Nader’s influence, and his sharp criticism of Gore a couple of weeks ago in a campaign stop at Chapman University in Orange, have enough impact here to make as much of a difference as Gore Democrats fear it will in balloting? And will Bush’s “compassionate conservative” approach appeal to the Democrats who threw their support to Ronald Reagan in past Orange County elections?

Those questions take on added significance as the presidential race in California heats up. Gore had a substantial lead in early polls but in the last two weeks his lead began to erode. That has rejuvenated Republican campaigning and brought Bush to California and Orange County last week. Gore and President Clinton also made a swing through the state.

The ballot measures, although nonpartisan, also pose interesting choices for Orange County residents whose preferences traditionally have been a bit more conservative than the rest of the state.

Proposition 39, which would lower the two-thirds requirement for the passage of local school bond measures to a majority 55%, is trailing in the county by a 48% to 37% with 15% undecided in the latest polling by Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Public Policy.

The polling also shows Proposition 38, the school voucher initiative, trailing by a decisive margin.

The controversial local Measures G and H that will determine how Orange County spends the estimated $30 million it will receive annually in tobacco settlement money leads local ballot issues. Measure G would allocate 40% of the funds to reduce the county’s bankruptcy debt. Measure H would give 80% of the money to health care and the other 20% to public safety. The initiative with the highest vote total over the 50% majority will win. If neither gets 50% the issue will go back to the county Board of Supervisors for decision.

Voters also face four local ballot measures in three cities that deal with slowing growth. That involves factors beyond just land use. The decisions will affect all of the county because the outcome will have a domino effect on not only the availability of new homes, condominiums and apartments but on housing costs, the critical need for more affordable housing and the growing traffic congestion and gridlock caused by commuting workers.

That in turn could threaten the county’s economic health. Forcing more people to live outside the county while the job market keeps growing erodes the local labor pool and contributes to labor costs, turnover and absenteeism. That can lead to new firms deciding not to locate in the county--and for some of those already here to move elsewhere.

So residents, regardless of their registration, shouldn’t conclude that their one vote doesn’t mean much. That single vote could help swing a county that swings a state that swings a nation’s choice of president. And it could affect local home prices, health care and traffic congestion in the county for many years to come.

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A complete list of Times ballot recommendations appears in today’s Opinion section.