Twists of Fate Put Majorities in Congress at Stake

When a prominent Democratic senatorial candidate was killed in a plane crash last month, the party’s chances of winning the Senate were widely assumed to have been lost.

But as the titanic battle for control of both chambers in Congress reaches its climax Tuesday, this unpredictable political year has been marked by yet another surprise: The Senate remains up for grabs.

It was clear from the start of this election cycle that the battle for the House, with its slim Republican majority, was going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight--and that’s just how it has turned out. The outcome is likely to depend on a small number of tossup races scattered across the nation, including a handful in California. And whichever party wins the majority, the margin may be less than the GOP’s current seven-seat advantage.

Control of the Senate, by contrast, had been seen as a longshot for Democrats--and the odds seemed to get longer with the death of Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, who was running a strong race to defeat GOP Sen. John Ashcroft.

But a variety of recent developments has Republicans concerned about the fate of their 54-46 Senate majority.

In Missouri, Carnahan’s widow is spearheading a strong campaign to beat Ashcroft. In Delaware, 79-year-old Republican Sen. William V. Roth Jr. fueled the view that he may not be up to another term when he lost his balance and fell twice in recent weeks--once before television cameras. In Montana, an underdog Democratic challenger to Sen. Conrad R. Burns has crept to within 1 percentage point in recent polls.

Republicans remain favored to retain a Senate majority, though it may well be less than their current four-seat edge. And enough Senate races remain neck-and-neck that a Democratic takeover is not as far out of reach as most analysts once thought.

New York Could Make History

In the battle for the Senate, one contest stands out for its marquee value: New York, where voters have the potential to make history by electing a sitting first lady to represent them. Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has enjoyed a lead in the polls over GOP Rep. Rick Lazio, but recent surveys showed the race tightening as Tuesday’s election approaches.

A Clinton victory in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan would establish her as a leading voice for the party’s liberal wing. But a Lazio win would provide his party with a key gain in the fight for the Senate.

In three states, the campaign season has provided bracing reminders of how politics can be buffeted by forces far beyond the control of any candidate or political strategist. Aside from the fatal crash in Missouri, the deaths of two senators changed the political outlook for a state and the nation.

When Republican Sen. Paul Coverdell of Georgia died in July, he was succeeded by former Gov. Zell Miller, a popular Democrat. That reduced the GOP Senate majority by one, and Miller is heavily favored to retain the seat in Tuesday’s vote.

When Republican Sen. John H. Chafee of Rhode Island died in October last year, his son Lincoln was appointed to fill the seat until this month’s vote. That gave Lincoln Chafee the advantages of incumbency he would not have had, and he is favored to hold the seat for the GOP in an otherwise Democratic state.

In Missouri, when the small plane piloted by Carnahan’s son and carrying the governor and an aide to a campaign event crashed Oct. 16, most political analysts--as well as Democratic officials--assumed that Republican Ashcroft could count on winning reelection. And that looked like the end of all Democratic hopes for the Senate, given the status of other races at the time.

Sympathy, and a Surge in the Polls

But the outpouring of sympathy for the Carnahan family was accompanied by a surge in the polls for the deceased candidate. Under state law, it was too late for Carnahan’s name to be removed from the ballot and be replaced by another candidate’s. But the Democratic acting governor announced he would appoint Carnahan’s widow to the Senate if Carnahan won on election day. Ashcroft has narrowed the gap in recent surveys, but he has been constrained in how aggressively he can campaign.

Meanwhile, Democratic fortunes were improving in other states.

In Delaware, Roth has been fighting the toughest reelection battle of his 30-year Senate career. His Democratic opponent, Gov. Thomas R. Carper, has been reluctant to openly make the case that Roth is too old to serve another term. But voters were reminded of Roth’s physical limits when, in mid-October, he collapsed in front of television cameras, the second time this fall he has fallen during a public appearance. His staff said he has an inner ear problem that gives him vertigo and his doctors gave him a clean bill of health, but the TV footage was not flattering.

In Montana, Democratic rancher Brian Schweitzer is finishing strong in his Senate bid against the GOP’s Burns, who had been considered in good shape for reelection just a few months ago. Schweitzer has campaigned effectively on health care issues, but Burns enjoys a heavy financial advantage and Schweitzer will have to overcome the large margin by which Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush is expected to carry the state.

At least one key race has evolved true to form. In Minnesota, freshman Republican Sen. Rod Grams was viewed as one of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents. And even though Democrats were disadvantaged by a contested primary that kept the party divided until September, the long-awaited nominee--millionaire businessman Mark Dayton--has opened a significant lead in the polls.

A White House Win Hurts Senate Gains

Even Republicans now concede the race is Dayton’s to lose. “If [Grams] were to win, he would be the new comeback kid,” said Stuart Roy, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Tossup races in Michigan, Washington and Florida give Democrats other opportunities for gains. But Democrats also are near certain to lose a Senate seat they hold in Nevada, where former GOP Rep. John Ensign is expected to succeed retiring Democrat Richard H. Bryan.

A Democratic seat also is at risk in Virginia, where incumbent Charles S. Robb is locked in a close race with former GOP Gov. George Allen. Democrats concede this is a potential loss and see the contest as an early bellwether on election night for the party’s hopes of capturing the Senate.

“Without Robb, it’s hard to do,” said a Democratic Party strategist.

Democrats also face the prospect that winning the White House will hurt them in the Senate. That’s because Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph I. Lieberman resisted calls that he not also seek reelection to his Senate seat in Connecticut. Lieberman, a prohibitive favorite to win reelection, will resign if Democrat Al Gore captures the presidential race. Lieberman’s successor will be named by Connecticut’s GOP governor, who presumably will pick a Republican.

In the House, Democrats are ending the campaign by spotlighting the impasse concerning the federal budget that kept Congress in session closer to election day than any time in U.S. history, and will force lawmakers to return after Tuesday’s vote for a lame-duck session. Democrats believe the stalemate underscores their argument that a “do-nothing” GOP Congress should be replaced.

“I think the American people are noticing plenty,” said House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.). “And I think they are seeing the same kind of mismanagement that we have seen” since the GOP won control of the House and Senate in the 1994 election.

Most Incumbents in House Looking at Wins

But Republicans believe their efforts--though unsuccessful--to pass their own versions of bills dealing with Medicare prescription drug benefits, reform of health maintenance organizations and tax breaks undercut the Democratic argument. They also doubt that the public is perturbed by the current budget fight.

The battle for the House is being fought in only about two dozen competitive districts, as most incumbents are coasting to reelection. A road map to the most competitive seats is written in the schedules of top party officials in the campaign’s closing days of the campaign.

Virginia Rep. Thomas M. Davis, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, set off Friday on a tour with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) that called for them to visit 24 battleground districts in four days. President Clinton has been stumping for House candidates in California, where at least four Republican seats are ripe for Democratic picking, as well as Kentucky and Arkansas. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy of Rhode Island, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is swinging through Florida, West Virginia, New York and New Jersey.

Republicans are encouraged by signs that they have managed to put in jeopardy some House Democratic incumbents who previously had been considered safe, including Rep. Sam Gejdenson of Connecticut and Bill Luther of Minnesota.

But there remain more Republican incumbents fighting for their lives than Democrats. Most analysts predict that Democrats will pick up seats on election day, but not necessarily enough to achieve a majority.