A Visit to a Recalcitrant Land

The United States has made long strides toward reshaping its relations with Vietnam from that of an enemy to that of an economic partner. It has lifted economic sanctions against Hanoi and established diplomatic ties, and earlier this year it signed a far-reaching trade agreement. But while attitudes in Washington have changed since the Vietnam War ended 25 years ago, they remain unmoved in Vietnam. In Hanoi’s rhetoric, the United States is still an imperialist country bent on destabilizing the Communist regime. President Clinton’s unprecedented visit to Vietnam later this week is unlikely to produce radical changes. But he is right to undertake the trip.

Vietnam is little changed since the war ended, and most of its 78 million people have no memory of the conflict. The reforms the government promised 15 years ago are still on paper. The hard-line Communists tolerate no political dissent and suppress religious freedoms with an iron fist. They manage--mismanage is a better word--the economy by arbitrary rules administered by corrupt officials.

Clinton’s visit, the first by a U.S. president since the end of the war, is part of the administration’s engagement policy, which remains aimed at bringing Hanoi out of communism and into the global economy. Pressure on Vietnam for a full accounting for the more than 1,700 Americans missing there has worked to U.S. satisfaction.

The promise of change once held hope. The early years of Hanoi’s program of economic reforms, or doi moi, followed by lifting of U.S. sanctions in 1994 and the resumption of diplomatic ties a year later, led to double-digit economic growth. Investors, attracted by the large consumer market and young, well-educated work force, started to pour in.

But the reforms never took hold. The economy is still run from the center through state enterprises that couldn’t survive without massive government subsidies. Red tape and crooked bureaucrats and business partners chased most Western investors out. Now the economy is nearly stalled.

Nor are the Communists looking toward the United States as an economic model. They admire America for what it has accomplished but mistrust its intentions. Washington’s support for religious freedom in Vietnam, for example, is seen as a maneuver to trigger rebellion among ethnic minorities.

Hanoi’s model is China, which, despite its Communist form of government, has been able to maintain a steady economic growth with the help of tens of billions of dollars of foreign capital.

Washington’s ability to influence Vietnam’s policies through economic development is limited. Still, Clinton was right in engaging Vietnam on a score of issues, including MIAs, human rights and trade. But his visit will be largely symbolic. Changes in Hanoi will be slow in coming.