In Political Game of Inches, an Everest of 1,850 Absentee Votes

At least one thing is undisputed in the nation’s fractious and drawn-out presidential election: upward of 1,850 Florida absentee ballots from overseas military personnel and expatriates will be tabulated Friday by election officials across the state, and their impact will be huge.

While the election has been fought on a far bigger battlefield, with about 104 million votes cast, the relative handful of late-arriving overseas absentee ballots loom large, with Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican nominee, holding a tenuous 300-vote lead in Florida over his Democratic rival, Vice President Al Gore.

A Times county-by-county survey found that, as of Wednesday, 1,850 absentee ballots are in the hands of election officials but not yet counted. The ballots have trickled in, and the total is expected to rise modestly before midnight Friday, the deadline for absentee votes to be counted.

The Times survey also found that of all the absentee ballots received by Nov. 7, election day, Bush received about 62% to Gore’s 38%, suggesting that the remaining absentee votes could likewise be in Bush’s favor.

That would be consistent with the 1996 presidential vote, when Republican Bob Dole--who won only 42% of Florida’s total turnout--received 54% of the 2,227 Florida absentee votes counted after the election.

If that pattern holds--and if myriad legal fronts seeking manual recounts in Florida counties fail--the overseas absentee ballots point unmistakably to a Bush presidency.

Around Pensacola, the election has been a hot topic.

“This showed everyone, not just those of us in the military, that every vote counts,” said Charles White, a petty officer first class who trains naval electricians. “I think Bush will win. That’s always been the trend in the military, to go Republican.”

But changing demographics as well as Vice President Al Gore’s service in Vietnam have shaken up the mix a bit.

William Shorter, who spends his workdays strapping bombs to military aircraft, trudged to the base commissary Wednesday evening, talking up Gore’s chances with overseas ballots.

“There’s 12, 15 enlisted men for every officer flying a plane over there, and enlisted seem to tend toward Gore,” said Shorter, himself a Gore supporter. “It will be close. Really, really close.”

Outside of the military vote, Democrats hope their efforts to woo Jewish voters living in Israel can counter the usual Republican advantage abroad.

With the polls whipsawing for months before election day, both parties took aggressive steps to boost the overseas election tally.

Republicans bought ads in the International Hearald-Tribune and other foreign publications. The prime argument: Bush would boost expatriate tax breaks. Gore also advertised abroad, even offering the services of a voting assistance officer in Israel.

The importance of such efforts has only been magnified in the week after the close of the polls, as neither candidate has the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. But either would be put over the top by Florida’s 25 electoral votes.

Under Florida law, absentee ballots issued to people within the United States must be returned to county election offices by the close of the polls on election day. However, absentee ballots issued to overseas voters can be received as late as midnight Friday, as long as they are filled out by election day, verified by a dated postmark or by a witnessed and dated signature.

County canvassing boards will review the ballots Friday, looking at postmarks and dates of signatures, to determine whether they are eligible to be counted. Those accepted will be certified Saturday.

A simmering issue in Florida involves who gets to vote by absentee ballot in the first place.

Florida law holds that absentee ballots are for Florida residents who cannot make it to the polls on election day. Yet over the years, absentee ballots have been filed by people who no longer live in Florida. And a preelection mailing by the state Republican Party encouraged party faithful to request absentee ballots so they could vote “from the comfort of your own home.”

The process is based on the honor system, down to how people register in the first place. There is no requirement to prove residency when registering to vote. “Whatever address they put down, they are swearing to an oath that everything on the form is correct and that that is their legal residence,” said Wilma Davio, a worker in the Escambia County supervisor of elections office, Florida’s northwesternmost county, which includes Pensacola.

Hans von Spakovsky, a Georgia election official and advisor to the national Voting Integrity Project, an anti-voter-fraud organization based in Arlington, Va., described Florida’s voting laws as looser than most other states.

But, he said, he had seen no indications of fraud in this election.

“I don’t see anything going on,” said Von Spakovsky, a Republican member of the Fulton County, Ga., elections board. “What I have seen is a PR battle being waged.”

Abuses have occurred in Florida absentee voting in the past, though. Three years ago, a state judge threw out the results of a Miami mayoral election after witnesses testified that signatures were forged or that they had been pressured to sign absentee ballots.

In Escambia County here, election officials sent out 1,802 overseas ballots, received 626 before the close of the polls Nov. 7--they have all been counted--and have received another 203 absentee ballots since then, Davio said.

Davio said the results of the 626 overseas ballots already counted were not available. But, she said, 373 were returned by Republicans, 130 by Democrats and 123 by independents or voters registered in other parties.

“It will definitely be Bush,” predicted Kenneth Carroll, a petty officer second class originally from Yucca Valley, Calif. “That would definitely make me happy.”

*

Times staff writers Meg James and Scott Gold in Florida and Times researchers Lianne Hart, Massie Ritsch, Edith Stanley and Anna M. Virtue contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Tallying Overseas Ballots

More than 100 million votes were cast in the presidential election, but with no declared winner yet, the final result may rest on absentee ballots still uncounted in Florida. These late-arriving ballots--at least 1,800 of them--are from Americans living overseas. Election officials in Florida’s 67 counties will tally them Friday.

*

*--*

Overseas Overseas allots ballots Overseas Overseas already received ballots ballots tallied and but still not County mailed reported untallied received ALACHUA 422 203 56 163 BAKER 10 4 1 5 BAY 736 338 75 323 BRADFORD 17 8 3 6 BREVARD 1,379 1,054 82 243 BROWARD 1,623 522 37 1,064 CALHOUN 3 0 0 3 CHARLOTTE 204 160 9 35 CITRUS 119 51 47 21 CLAY 457 176 211 70 COLLIER 584 444 unknown 144 COLUMBIA 32 23 6 9 DESOTO 6 0 3 3 DIXIE 4 4 0 0 DUVAL 1,621 675 161 785 ESCAMBIA 1,802 626 203 973 FLAGLER 79 62 5 12 FRANKLIN 12 7 2 3 GADSDEN 43 21 5 17 GILCHRIST 9 6 0 3 GLADES 1 0 0 1 GULF 8 6 1 1 HAMILTON 12 7 3 2 HARDY 17 9 6 2 HENDRY 13 11 0 2 HERNANDO 97 49 19 29 HIGHLANDS 87 75 5 7 HILLSBOROUGH 1,584 1252 58 274 HOLMES 21 15 1 5 INDIAN RIVER 170 142 7 21 JACKSON 24 19 3 2 JEFFERSON 3 3 0 0 LAFAYETTE 7 3 0 4 LAKE 174 130 3 41 LEE 376 283 46 47 LEON 400 105 40 255 LEVY 31 14 5 12 LIBERTY 2 1 0 1 MADISON 23 16 1 6 MANATEE 434 191 121 122 MARION 313 235 20 58 MARTIN 150 124 5 21 MIAMI-DADE 1,699 1,138 156 405 MONROE 212 181 11 20 NASSAU 83 59 8 16 OKALOOSA 1,500 unknown 60 0 OKEECHOBEE 26 18 2 6 ORANGE 1,164 897 76 0 OSCEOLA 169 85 0 84 PALM BEACH 1,030 515 44 471 PASCO 268 137 15 116 PINELLAS 1,405 1,161 96 148 POLK 460 296 38 126 PUTNAM 87 52 20 15 ST. JOHNS 220 171 16 33 ST. LUCIE 149 121 10 18 SANTA ROSA 687 504 50 133 SARASOTA 630 455 57 118 SEMINOLE 386 0 164 222 SUMTER 36 29 0 7 SUWANEE 20 14 3 3 TAYLOR 22 16 2 4 UNION 4 3 0 1 VOLUSIA 434 299 38 97 WAKULLA 19 16 0 3 WALTON 101 79 10 101 WASHINGTON 19 11 1 7 TOTAL 19,752 11,202 1,873 6,949

*--*

*

Sources: County election offices, St. Petersburg Times

Compiled by Times researchers Lianne Hart, Massie Ritsch, Edith Stanley and Anna M. Virtue

*

Votes From Abroad

In Florida, overseas absentee ballots still trickling in may ultimately decide who will be elected president. Here is how Floridians abroad voted in past elections.

*

1988

George Bush (Rep.): 2,288

Michael S. Dukakis (Dem.): 850

*

1992

George Bush (Rep.): 1,529

Bill Clinton (Dem.): 1,047

Ross Perot (Ref.): 58

*

1996

Bob Dole (Rep.): 1,212

Bill Clinton (Dem.): 902

Ross Perot (Ref.): 94

Source: Florida Office of Secretary of State, AP

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Escambia County, Fla.

Its people...

* Population is 291,926.

* 70% are white, 23% are black, 3% are Latino and 3% are Asian.

* Median household income is $35,414.

* The military employs more than 12,000 people, primarily at the Pensacola Naval Air Station.

Its politics...

* Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans, 78,439 to 69,724. About 22,200 voters did not provide their political affiliation or are registered with minor parties.

* The county voted for Republicans Bob Dole in 1996 and George Bush in 1992.

* For this election, the county distributed 1,802 absentee ballots to voters who were overseas on election day. About a third of those ballots had been received and counted by election day’s end, and more than 200 have arrived since. Those ballots will be reviewed Friday--the deadline for arrival--before being counted.

Sources: Claritas, Escambia County supervisor of elections

*

STATE RACE ECHOES FLORIDA

Central Valley contest hinges on just a ffew hundred votes. A3

ANGRY BUSH BACKERS

Republicans rally at CNN building, allege media bias. B3