Record Air Travel Anticipated
Record numbers of airline passengers are bracing for what could be a tumultuous Thanksgiving travel weekend marred by more airline labor disputes--only months after consumers endured a seemingly endless summer of airline cancellations and delays.
Thanksgiving, with its four-day weekend for many, historically is the year’s busiest travel period. But the stakes are higher than ever this year, as a record 20.5 million people are expected to board U.S. airlines to reach Grandma’s house and other destinations, a 3.2% gain from 1999, according to the Air Transport Assn., the airlines’ trade group.
And they’ll be flying just as labor problems are growing more bitter at several airlines. Disputes at United, Northwest and Delta are already causing some flights to be canceled or delayed, and they threaten to strand scores more starting today.
Even so, planes are expected to be crowded. Flights on average are projected to be roughly about 73% full today through next Tuesday, with Sunday--the heaviest travel day--spiking to an extremely high 85%, the ATA forecast.
Meanwhile, the Automobile Assn. of America (AAA) predicts that more than 31.6 million motorists will avoid airports and hit the highway instead for trips of 50 miles or more over the Thanksgiving holiday. More than 2.3 million of them will be Southern Californians.
Americans appear to be undeterred by gas prices that have risen about 30 cents a gallon since last November, or by air fares that have crept up roughly 13% during the same period, according to figures compiled by AAA.
On Monday, stalled contract negotiations between United, the nation’s largest air carrier, and its mechanics’ union appeared to have stranded as many as 73 of its scheduled 2,300 daily flights, the airline said.
United on Friday won a court order preventing the mechanics from staging a work slowdown over the busy holiday week. The airline alleged that for the past several days mechanics have grounded hundreds of flights for unnecessary maintenance in protest over the pace of negotiations, which have been underway since July.
The International Assn. of Machinists denies the allegations. And the union Monday asked federal mediators to release it from the contract talks and declare a 30-day cooling-off period after which they could legally strike--potentially during the Christmas and New Year’s travel seasons.
As many as seven United departures from Los Angeles International Airport were scrapped Monday, but airline spokesman Matt Triaca didn’t know how many of those had been pulled for maintenance reasons. Triaca confirmed both sides met Monday with federal mediators in an effort to break the impasse.
A labor fight at United Airlines, involving its pilots, also contributed to this year’s miserable summer of airline travel that also was hobbled by more weather-related interruption than normal, air-traffic-control woes and record-high passenger counts.
On Monday, United’s flight attendants passed out leaflets at LAX and 11 other airports nationwide, calling on the airline to raise wages for new cabin-crew employees.
While there had been concern the flight attendants could ground even more United flights this week with random sickouts, union spokeswoman Dawn Deeks said their action was merely informational and not intended to disrupt flights.
Likewise, American Airlines’ attendants intend to conduct an “informational picket” at LAX today after dismissing the carrier’s latest contract offer. But the airline and the union maintain that flights will operate as scheduled.
Delta, meanwhile, warned Monday that it too is vulnerable to labor-related flight delays and cancellations while the carrier and its pilots await federal mediation in their own contract negotiations.
Delta spokeswoman Peggy Estes said no labor-action-related flight cancellations have occurred so far, but she said Monday that “some selective flight delays and cancellations may occur” if pilots decide not to work overtime during this week’s crunch travel days, such as today, Saturday and Sunday. Estes said the pilots’ contract allows them to refuse overtime at their own discretion.
There also is concern that mechanics at Northwest Airlines, likewise miffed at the glacial pace of contract talks, could stage flight-disrupting job actions of their own this week.
Northwest spokeswoman Mary Beth Schubert said Monday no such actions had so far occurred. However, late Monday a federal court also granted Northwest’s request for a temporary restraining order against the mechanics’ union. The carrier sought the ruling on grounds that there is “clear evidence” that the mechanics are organizing a job slowdown that could disrupt travel for thousands of passengers.
The Aircraft Mechanics Fraternal Assn. said it has warned its members not to engage in any job actions during contract talks.
Looking ahead, most travel industry observers agree that Thanksgiving is just a kickoff for a holiday travel season that by the first week of January will have seen nearly 85 million travelers in transit. The figure represents a 3% increase over last year, according to the Travel Industry Assn. of America, an advocacy organization for travel-related businesses.
Despite the prospect of disgruntled customers, the nation’s airlines can expect to be thankful for healthy revenue increases this November. Last year, record Thanksgiving travel helped boost November “revenue passenger miles”--the industry’s revenue yardstick--by 8%. Given the jump in air fare and passenger volumes this November, the industry can expect to see an additional increase of at least 4% this year, ATA spokeswoman Diana Cronan said.
The Thanksgiving travel crowd has spread its bounty to local businesses as well.
Linda Oda, co-owner of the Silver Lake Travel in Los Angeles, said her phone lines in September and October were abuzz with people looking to book air reservations for this week: “Everyone goes home for Thanksgiving.”
(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)
Taking Wing
The numbers show what air travelers already know--more people than ever are flying these days. The number of passengers boarding U.S. carriers for domestic and international flights has risen 36% over the past decade--and more than 1,000% since 1960.
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Yearly figures on numbers of passengers who board planes, in millions:
Projection for 2000: 654.4 million
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Source: Air Transport Assn. of America
