Sanchez’s Popularity Higher Than Ever

Despite the fireworks caused by an ill-fated Playboy Mansion fund-raiser, voters are happier than ever with Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who is cruising with a commanding 21-point lead in her reelection bid, a new poll reveals.

Voters showed little hesitation to forgive and put aside the Playboy incident and Sanchez’s subsequent cancellation of an event with President Clinton, according to a poll by Baldassare Associates for the Los Angeles Times’ Orange County edition.

Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) is favored by 52% of voters, compared to 31% for Republican challenger Gloria Matta Tuchman, a telephone poll of 500 likely voters conducted this past week in the central county district shows. Democrats hold an 11-point lead among registered voters in the 46th District, 47% to 36% for the GOP, according to the latest figures available.

More than half the voters gave Sanchez high job-performance ratings. Latino voters and Democrats were far and away the most loyal, with nearly eight in 10 saying they approve of the job she’s doing in Congress.

The rosy numbers come despite agreement across gender, age and ethnic lines that Sanchez erred in August by planning a fund-raiser--which she later moved--at the Playboy Mansion during the Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles. About four in 10 voters said it made no difference to them.

Voters were more disapproving of her decision last month to cancel a private fund-raiser with President Clinton because he couldn’t stay long enough to have dinner with the guests as originally planned.

“Voters see more good in what she’s done than bad, and they’re pleased with the positive image she’s brought to Latinos,” pollster Cheryl Katz said. “They’re willing to forgive her a couple of fumbles.”

It is Sanchez’s commitment to the district and “giving back to the community” that won over 18-year-old Jenni Ceja, who graduated in June from Middle College High School in Santa Ana. Sanchez is a good role model, she said, despite an uneasy feeling that “the stuff she’s been doing lately is a little weird.”

“I would tell her, ‘Watch what you do really closely,’ because what she does really reflects on all of us,” said Ceja, who works for a telecommunications company. “Think beyond the donors. Money comes and money goes but the impression people have lasts forever.’ ”

The fund-raising flaps made no difference to Robert Palacios of Santa Ana, another 18-year-old voting for Sanchez in his first election next month.

“She had her reasons,” he said. “Most people my age have thought that voting is a waste of time, but we’re thinking it’s better to get our voices heard. We’ve heard a lot of good things about her.”

The 46th Congressional District was targeted early in the campaign by state and national Republicans eager to topple Sanchez, who pulled off a stunning upset in 1996 by narrowly defeating longtime conservative Republican Robert K. Dornan. She beat him handily again two years later when he tried to regain his seat.

Tuchman, who got 56% of the vote in the district in 1998 during an unsuccessful run for state schools chief, was seen as potentially competitive, especially in a district where 30% of the voters are Latino.

But it is Sanchez who is favored by 71% of the Latino voters in the district while Tuchman, a Santa Ana teacher, hovers at 15%. Some 54% of voters had no opinion of Tuchman, indicating little traction from her 1998 race.

“Tuchman hasn’t made much of a mark in this race, she hasn’t really established herself,” Katz said.

The Tuchman campaign said other polls show the race “much closer” and said she will continue aggressively campaigning until Nov. 7.

“We have a strong grass-roots organization and we’ve walked over 130 precincts” out of 256 in the district, campaign manager Jarryd Gonzales said.

Brent Tuominen, 34, a Democrat from Orange, said he is voting for Tuchman because Sanchez is too liberal for his tastes.

“I like Tuchman’s positions on schools much better; she’s opposed to bilingual education and she’s in favor of vouchers,” the father of four said. “My heart is with the Democratic Party. I just don’t like the solutions they come up with.”

He said the fund-raising dust-up made “not a particle of difference” in his assessment of Sanchez.

“I just thought it was silly,” he said.

Fund-Raising Lead Even Bigger for Sanchez

Though the Tuchman camp had hoped for an infusion of GOP money, Sanchez has lapped her several times over in terms of fund-raising. By September, the incumbent had $1.5 million--a 10-to-1 edge in campaign money.

Sanchez prevailed in the poll because she has delivered for her working-class district, her spokeswoman said. For example, she has visited every public school in the district.

“She works really hard. She comes home every weekend and that’s not lost on anybody,” said spokeswoman Sara Anderson.

Rather than being foiled by her political missteps, Sanchez’s image has climbed steadily since 1997, leaping 14 percentage points to 53% with a favorable impression today. Seven in 10 Latinos have a favorable impression of Sanchez, and 68% of Latinos think she has helped their image.

Overall, the loyalty from Latinos, a strong voting bloc for Democrats, offsets a more divided sentiment about Sanchez among other ethnic groups, Katz said.

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish from Oct. 9-11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%, with a confidence level of 95%. That means the results are within 4.5 percentage points of what they would be if all likely voters in the 46th District were interviewed. For subgroups, such as gender or party, the margin of error is larger.

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High Marks for Sanchez

Despite her perceived fumbles -- such as the ill-fated fund-raiser at the Playboy Mansion and cancellation of a fund-raiser that President Clinton was to attend--a Times poll shows that Rep. Loretta Sanchez has a 21-point lead over her Republican challenger, Gloria Matta Tuchman, in her bid to win a third term.

Sanchez vs Tuchman

Q: If the election for U.S. congressperson for your district were held today, would you vote for:

C.D. Tuchman 31%

Sanchez 52%

Don’t Know 16%

Other 1%

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Candidate Ratings

A majority of the district’s likely voters have a favorable image of Sanchez, and Sanchez has seen steady improvement in her image over time. On the other hand, Tuchman is largely unknown in the district.

View of Sanchez over time:

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2000 1998 1997 Favorable 53% 47% 39% Unfavorable 33 33 29% Don’t Know 14 20 32%

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Q: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of:

*--*

Sanchez Tuchman Favorable 53% 30% Unfavorable 33 16% Don’t Know 14 54%

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Sanchez Report Card

Despite her perceived fumbles--such as her ill-fated fund-raiser at Playboy Mansion and cancellation of a fund-raiser that President Clinton was to attend--Sanchez’ approval ratings are still high, and they still approve of the job she’s doing representing the district.

Q: During the Democratic national convention, Sanchez drew criticism from Democratic party officials for planning to hold a fund-raiser for Hispanic Unity U.S.A. at the Playboy mansion. Sanchez later changed the event to another location. Do you think it was a good idea or a bad idea for Sanchez to plan a fund-raiser at the Playboy mansion, or did this make no difference to you?

Good idea 11%

Bad idea 47%

No difference 41%

Don’t Know 1%

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Q: Last month, Sanchez cancelled an Anaheim Hills fund-raiser with President Clinton because the president wanted to change the event from a dinner to a reception. Do you think Sanchez should or should not have cancelled the fund-raiser with the president?

Should 24%

Should not 52%

Don’t Know 24%

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Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Loretta Sanchez is doing in representing your district in Congress at this time?

Approve 58%

Disapprove 29%

Don’t Know 13%

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IMAGE OF LATINOS

Most voters perceive Sanchez as having a positive effect on the image of Latinos.

Q: Overall, do you think Loretta Sanchez has helped or hurt the image of Latinos during her term in Congress?

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All Dem Rep Latino White/ Other Helped 56% 68% 41% 68% 50% Hurt 21 11 36 13 25 Both 3 3 2 3 3 Neither 6 5 7 4 7 Don’t Know 14 13 14 12 15

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NOTE: The Los Angeles Times Orange County Edition Poll was conducted by Baldassare Associates. The random telephone survey of 500 likely voters registered in the 46th congressional district, was conducted during the evenings of Oct. 9-11. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of error for the total sample of 500 voters is +/- 4.5% at the 95% confidence level. For subgroups, such as sex or party, the margin of error would be larger.

Source: Baldasarre Associates for the Los Angeles Times Orange County Edition