‘Frogs Could Horn In on Bowl Series Plans

We’ve crunched the numbers; tabulated, formulated and triangulated them.

We’ve taken inventory, thrown out the top score and divided by seven, adjusted for variants and even considered the win-chill factor.

And we have concluded: The school with the best chance of finishing the season without a loss, without a doubt, is Texas Christian.

What’s more, if it ends as the nation’s only undefeated team, TCU has no frog-legged chance of playing for the national championship in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl.

After two years of escaping serious wrath, the bowl championship series may have some explaining to do if the BCS formula dictates two one-loss schools play for the title and undefeated TCU gets dusted.

Why? Because outsider TCU has a chance to get close enough in the final BCS rankings to muck up the machinery.

“We haven’t given it a great deal of thought,” TCU Coach Dennis Franchione said this week by phone from Fort Worth. “We’re 5-0, we know in order to even think about it we’ve got to win some more games and put ourselves in a position to think about it.”

Until then, Dennis, allow us to do the thinking.

Schools from outside the six, BCS choke-hold conferences have been easy to dismiss in the first two years of the BCS-ratings era.

In 1998, undefeated Tulane emerged from Conference USA to finish 10th in the final BCS ratings, yet no one argued the Green Wave deserved to be in the title game ahead of Tennessee or Florida State.

Last year, undefeated Marshall of the Mid-American Conference finished 12th in the BCS standings, but there was no hue and cry because two other undefeated teams, Florida State and Virginia Tech, played for the national title in the Sugar Bowl.

But in a season in which there appear to be no dominant teams, TCU may be able to make a strong case for at least being considered for one of two lucrative, at-large BCS bowl berths (Note: Independent Notre Dame is guaranteed a BCS at-large berth if it finishes 9-2).

The Horned Frogs are 11th in this week’s AP poll, but eight of the 10 schools ahead of them have remaining games against top-10 opponents, meaning TCU can expect to make up significant ground as long as it keeps winning.

The five remaining undefeated Division I-A schools are No. 1 Nebraska, No. 2 Virginia Tech, No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 5 Clemson and TCU.

Nebraska has to play Oklahoma, Kansas State and possibly the Big 12 title game.

Virginia Tech is at Miami on Nov. 4, the same day Clemson plays at Florida State in Bowdens II.

TCU finishes with Tulsa, Rice, San Jose State, Fresno State, Texas El Paso and Southern Methodist.

TCU will be punished by pollsters and the BCS schedule-strength component because it plays in the weaker Western Athletic Conference.

But TCU, unlike Kansas State, is not trying to manipulate the system by scheduling weak opponents.

TCU came to its place honestly. The Horned Frogs were coming off a 1-10 season when Franchione took over in 1998.

“When you inherit 1-10, you’re not thinking much about the BCS,” Franchione said.

In fact, one of Franchione’s first acts was to opt out of a game at Nebraska scheduled for the 2000 season.

“In retrospect now, we kind of wish maybe we hadn’t,” Franchione said, “but there’s no way you could have predicted this kind of success.”

In two-plus seasons under Franchione, TCU is 20-9. In Year One, his team stunned USC in the Sun Bowl and last year TCU beat East Carolina in the Mobile Alabama Bowl.

Led by LaDainian Tomlinson, the nation’s leading rusher and a top-shelf Heisman candidate, TCU is a BCS contender and owes a bit of gratitude to those who fought for the cause.

In 1996, after 13-1 Brigham Young was snubbed from a big-money BCS bowl, the WAC threatened legal action and earned new rights when the BCS was formed.

Because of BYU, any school that finishes in the top six in the final BCS is guaranteed a spot in either the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta or Orange Bowls.

Because of BYU, any school that finishes in the top 12 can be considered for a BCS game.

In fact, the Fiesta Bowl has already sent “jackets” to scout TCU.

The irony is that TCU, looking to upgrade, is leaving the WAC after this year to join Conference USA.

How good is TCU? How good is anyone this year?

But a win at Tulsa this week will give TCU its first 6-0 start since 1938.

In the only nonconference measuring-stick game, TCU crushed Northwestern, 41-14.

“It proved we were good,” Tomlinson said of that win. “I don’t think people started realizing it until Northwestern started beating up people in the Big Ten. It was a big win for us, but we knew we were good.”

TCU ranks first nationally in total defense and is among the top 20 in scoring defense, rushing, passing, total offense, scoring offense, kickoff returns, punting and punt returns.

Franchione isn’t ready to file court papers to get his team in the national title game.

“We have a nice ball club,” he said. “We’re playing fairly solidly in just about every area.”

MORE ON LT

Tomlinson is a spectacular player. He led the nation in rushing last season and leads this year with 194.8 yards a game. Two weeks ago, Tomlinson carried 49 times for 294 yards against Hawaii.

But, in part because he plays in the WAC, it probably won’t be enough to snatch the Heisman from Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick, who remains the front-runner despite some less-than-stellar performances.

“That’s just how it goes,” Tomlinson said, “the media is just there, always covering Vick, anything he does. Even if it’s not special, he’s going to get the media attention. He’s been the leader for the trophy since day one. It’s just something that goes along with it. In order for him not to be the leader, he has to lose some games.”

Tomlinson is on track to become the first 2,000-yard rusher from a ranked school not to win the Heisman.

“That’s something I can’t control,” Tomlinson said of his race with Vick. “I just have to play better.”

HURRY-UP OFFENSE

It was only a matter of time, right? There is now an Internet site called fireyourcoach.com. Incredibly, one of the links is FirePaterno. Just for the record, despite Penn State’s 2-5 start, Joe Paterno is still 231 games over .500 in his career. At last check, the FireHackett link was still under construction but soon to be operational. The Web site’s organizers state in the pious home page literature that they really wish all coaches success but that they must be accountable for their actions.

Stat of the week: Navy, averaging 8.9 points a game, was listed earlier this week as a nine-point favorite over Rutgers.

How explosive is Virginia Tech’s offense? The Hokies have attempted two field goals this season, making both.

Brace yourself for the return of the Bootlegger’s Boy. Former Oklahoma coach Barry Switzer was leading cheers last Saturday in Manhattan after the Sooners’ 41-31 win over Kansas State. It was OU’s first win in Manhattan since 1987, when Switzer’s marauders tattooed Kansas State with a 59-10 loss. “I was in that dressing room 13 years ago,” Switzer said. “We won then. What’s different?”

Alert the Authorities, Part II: If Oklahoma and Miami win out, the Sooners and Hurricanes will stage a rematch of the 1988 Orange Bowl, when No. 2 Miami upset No. 1 Oklahoma.

Not that anyone’s keeping track, but Kansas State Coach Bill Snyder is now 1-18 against top-10 schools.

Where are they now, the quarterback update: Jason Thomas, the former USC quarterback who transferred to Nevada Las Vegas, is the nation’s second-leading passer this week with an efficiency rating of 179.6. Thomas, however, sprained an ankle in Saturday’s 20-19 loss to Colorado State and his doubtful for this week’s game against Wyoming.

J.P. Losman, who transferred from UCLA to Tulane because--um, why did he transfer again?--has completed 40 of 80 passes in relief of superstar starter Patrick Ramsey.

More on UNLV. Two missed extra points last weekend cost the Rebels a victory at Colorado State, prompting John Robinson to announce he is relieving senior Ray Cheetany of PAT duties and going with Dillon Pieffer, a walk-on from Colorado Springs, Colo.

It was reported here recently that not even Nostradamus could have predicted the rise of South Carolina football this season. In fact, one e-mailer reports, Nostradamus may have had the Gamecocks in mind when he allegedly wrote, “In the first year of the second millennium, there shall be an uprising of a tumult fowl, who shall be King of his roost of the southern states.” What could be better than No. 18 South Carolina playing at No. 8 Florida on Nov. 11 with the Southeastern Conference East Division at stake? How about Oregon State at Oregon on Nov. 18 with the Rose Bowl on the line?

ABC would prefer you tune in for the officially-sanctioned drum roll, but there is no need to wait for the unveiling of the first BCS ratings at halftime of next week’s “Monday Night Football” broadcast. The unofficial but accurate BCS formula is already being tabulated weekly at collegerpi.com. Nebraska and Virginia Tech are 1-2 in this week’s ratings. As only the two top two teams meet for the national title, the important battle is for the No. 2 spot. This week, No. 3 Oklahoma trails Virginia Tech by 1.95 points.