Gore Maintains Solid Lead Among California Voters

In a survey that underscores California’s continuing Democratic tilt, Vice President Al Gore leads Texas Gov. George W. Bush among likely voters here by 7 percentage points with a spare two weeks to go before election day. Gore holds a broad edge over Bush among women and is only narrowly behind among men--two deviations from national trends that have made the overall race a dead heat.

Gore benefits from a muscular hold on Democrats and liberals--where he matches Bush’s grasp of Republicans and conservatives--and he is particularly aided by strong support among moderates, according to a new Los Angeles Times Poll.

Gore sweeps Bush when it comes to handling specific issues--except for national defense--and to the character traits that voters tend to ascribe to the winning candidate. Bush does better only when voters are asked which candidate is more likable.

Even then, there are limits to their ardor. Those limits illustrate how difficult it has been for Bush to crack the California code: Overall, voter impressions of Bush in California are negative--51% have an unfavorable impression and only 46% a positive one--whereas Gore’s are strongly favorable, 62% to 37%. Voters are far more certain of Gore’s goals for the Oval Office than of Bush’s. And although Republicans have spent weeks calling Gore a liar, voters here say Gore is the more honest candidate.

The 48%-41% lead for Gore defies a $6-million television ad campaign mounted by the Republican Party on Bush’s behalf. Blatantly confident about their hold on the state, Gore and the Democratic Party have not spent a penny on television ads.

In recent weeks, however, as Gore’s once-double-digit lead narrowed, Democrats here have agitated for ads or the candidate’s presence; neither has been forthcoming. The poll suggests that despite Gore’s absence he still maintains connections to California voters.

Much of the success Gore enjoys appears to be based on President Clinton’s popularity and still-robust views about the economy. Fully two-thirds of Californians say they approve of how Clinton has done his job as president, including 4 in 10 Californians who strongly back him.

Asked if they want to maintain, change slightly or change dramatically Clinton’s policies, only 20% of voters say they favor substantial change. Twice that percentage say his policies should remain intact.

Separately, almost 3 of 5 voters say the nation is headed in the right direction--a critical indicator for the reelection of an incumbent or the success of his lieutenants.

It was clear from The Times Poll that voter perceptions of the economy have helped Gore: Of the strong majority who think the country is on the right track, 67% are in Gore’s corner and only 23% side with Bush. Of those who think the country is going in the wrong direction, however, two-thirds back Bush and only 1 in 5 say they would vote for Gore.

Overall, the poll suggests that Gore has constructed a framework for victory here if he can manage to get his voters to the polls--always a big “if” in a state where few live and breathe politics.

“Gore has been in California many times over the last seven years, bearing gifts during the state’s disasters, and apparently voters haven’t forgotten that,” said Times Poll director Susan Pinkus. “His favorability rating is high, and he is on the same side of the issues that many voters here are.

“California voters firmly believe that the nation and the state are going in the right direction, and these voters say they will back Gore . . . . It all hinges on turnout.”

Politically, California Is a Different Place

The Times Poll interviewed 1,304 Californians, including 852 likely voters, from Thursday through Monday. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

For all of its political bulk--the state controls 54 electoral votes, the most in the nation--California has not always been central to the election of a president. But this year, Gore must win the state to accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency. The Bush campaign has tried to keep the pressure on here, hoping either to pull Gore away from more competitive states or to actually win.

More than anything, The Times Poll illustrates how different California is politically from the rest of the country. The demographics of Gore’s backers are utterly different here.

In recent weeks, for example, Gore’s expansive national lead among women has shrunk. But not in California, where he maintains a 20-point margin among women, 56% to 36%. Nationally, there is an avalanche of male support for Bush; in California, he leads Gore among men by a comparatively small margin of 47% to 38%.

Part of the reason for Gore’s better standing among men here is his ability to hold on to single men, who side with him 42% to 38%, while married men go for Bush, 54% to 33%.

Even more tellingly, Gore has a narrow edge among married women--47% to 43%--infiltrating a group that has strongly embraced Bush in national polls. Stay-at-home mothers, another Bush group nationally, back Gore in California by a 14-point margin, 53% to 39%. Like their male counterparts, single women here side with Gore, 72% to 22%, much as they have nationally.

Although much of Gore’s support among women nationally has been fueled by minority women, he shows strength across the board in California: Anglo women back the Democrat by a 52%-40% margin.

“Abortion and gun control are not big issues; they don’t come up high on the radar screen,” Pinkus said. “But just knowing Bush is against abortion, and many forms of gun control, hurts him in California, where voters--women particularly--are on the same side of those issues as Gore.”

Gore Follows Formulas of Davis, Clinton

Fundamentally, Gore has attracted the support of many of the same demographic groups that ensured the election of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in 1998 and of Clinton--albeit on a far more vulnerable scale. He has courted women’s votes but not utterly alienated men, and curried favor with minorities without offending Anglo voters.

But there are some successes for Bush, although not enough as yet to offset the state’s Democratic bias. (Democrats hold the governorship and the two U.S. Senate seats and control both houses of the state Legislature and the congressional delegation.)

By targeting Latinos in his campaign events and advertising, Bush has managed to drag down the percentage of Latinos siding with Gore, to 58% from the 75% who backed Clinton in 1996 and 71% who favored Davis in 1998.

But those voters have not committed to the Texas governor. Instead, they have taken up residence among the undecided. So far, Bush has the support of 26% of Latinos, a better showing than Republican Bob Dole’s 18% in 1996, but not much better, given his efforts, than Dan Lungren’s 23% in the 1998 governor’s race. (Because they make up a smaller percentage of the electorate than Anglos or Latinos, the poll could not calibrate the views of other minority groups.)

Bush has, however, wrested control of some voter groups desired by Democrats. He has campaigned hard in the Central Valley, a swing area much coveted by moderate Democrats such as Davis, and he leads there by a 2-1 ratio, the poll found.

He also appears to have had some success in peeling off voters who supported Clinton but have less of an affinity for Gore. Of those who think favorably of Clinton’s service as president, 17% are voting for Bush. Still, 7 in 10 back Gore. Conversely, those who disapprove of Clinton were far more uniform, with 89% supporting Bush and a mere 5% backing Gore.

But those appeared to be the easy marks for Bush, compared to the far larger group of moderate voters whose support dictates California’s winners and losers.

Among those who consider themselves moderates, for example, 3 in 5 side with Gore, who also predictably wins liberals while Bush takes conservatives. Although Gore loses 14% of moderate Democrats to Bush, he picks up 28% of moderate Republicans from the Texas governor.

Bush’s emphatic efforts to paint himself as a different kind of Republican--a “compassionate conservative” unaligned with the more polarizing forces that have dominated his party recently--have clearly paid off in his ability to draw closer to Gore than, say, Lungren did against Davis.

But that does not yet translate into gains when it comes to whom likely voters favor on either issues or personal characteristics.

Gore Leads on List of Characteristics

Gore bests Bush--and does better than his national numbers--when California voters are asked who cares most about people like them, who has the most experience, who shares the same moral values, who would be the stronger leader and, strikingly, who has the honesty and integrity to serve as president.

He also ranks ahead of Bush when it comes to who voters thought would better handle education, Social Security and health care--the big three California issues this year--as well as prescription drugs and the economy.

Bush is judged the more likable and better able to ensure a strong national defense. But he is 10 points behind Gore on the issue of education, on which Bush has fought Gore to a draw in national polls. And voters also back Gore’s budget, Social Security and health care plans over Bush’s.

To a large extent, the national race has come down to a yet unresolved dilemma for voters: Which do they fear most--Bush’s relative inexperience or Gore’s misstatements? In California, at least, voters have come to some tentative conclusions.

Asked whether Gore could be trusted to keep his word as president, 52% say yes to 39% no, a more positive declaration than the 47% yes to 40% no when the question is asked about Bush.

In the matter of background, the Democrat, with 25 years of government experience, clearly trumps the Republican, with six years of executive expertise. Four of five likely California voters say Gore has the experience and intellect to be president, a majority so large that it incorporates many Bush voters. Less than 1 in 5 say he does not. In Bush’s case, voters are ambivalent--47% say he has enough experience and intellect, whereas 44% say he does not.

Neither their performances in the debates nor their vice presidential selections appeared to shift perceptions among California voters, leaving the outcome dependent on which man manages to persuade more of his voters to show up Nov. 7.

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What They Like

Does this apply more to Al Gore or George W. Bush?

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Gore Bush Cares about people like me 53% 32 Will be a strong leader 51% 38 Has the honesty and integrity to be president 46% 38 Shares my moral values 44% 37 Is personally likable 35% 42

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Source: Los Angeles Times Poll, among likely California voters

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Californians Prefer Gore

California voters think Al Gore will be a stronger leader than George W. Bush, and they also think he has much more experience and intellect to be president. The vice president’s proposals on education, health care and Social Security are all favored by the state’s voters.