Season’s First Big Storm Is Expected to Hit Today

A moist weather system moving south along the coast is expected to bring Southern California its first substantial rain of the season today and Friday.

Amy Talmadge, a meteorologist with WeatherData Inc., said Orange County can expect as much as an inch of rain.

“There will be periods of light showers, starting at noon [today] and lasting through Friday evening,” she said.

An equal amount is expected in Los Angeles, with about twice that much in foothill communities, before the storm system moves east Friday afternoon. Snow is expected at mountain resorts above 5,500 feet.

“There won’t be enough snow in the mountains for skiing, but there should be enough to make people want to go up there and play in it,” she said. “This will be the first nice storm of the year.”

Although little or no precipitation is expected Saturday, a second storm should hit the region late Sunday or early Monday, she said, and that one could bring more rain and snow than the first.

The National Weather Service said a total of 0.34 of an inch of rain has fallen at the Los Angeles Civic Center’s observation area so far this season, which runs from July 1 through June 30. That is a little less than normal for this time of year, but most meteorologists, including Talmadge, expect the total by the end of June to be pretty close to the season’s average of about 15 inches.

Rainfall during the past two seasons has been below normal. Meteorologists say that probably was caused, at least in part, by a continuing La Nina, the oceanic and meteorological counterpart to the drenching El Nino during the winter of 1997-1998. During El Ninos, it’s usually wetter than normal in Southern California. During La Ninas, it’s usually drier.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says La Nina has finally dissipated, and there’s no new El Nino in sight.

Yet to be factored into the equation are new satellite data showing that the Pacific Ocean may be undergoing a dramatic climate shift, much longer than the El Nino/La Nina cycles, that could lead Southern California into decades of abnormally dry weather.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientists in Pasadena predict a major effect. But most meteorologists say that prediction is premature.