Political Shift May Shake Rogan’s Advantage

De Lores Everts voted for Rep. James E. Rogan four years ago, when the 450 people who went to the polls in her north Glendale precinct favored Rogan by a cushy 60-vote margin.

The operating-room nurse voted for Rogan again in 1998, when the Republican congressman squeaked by with a 15-vote reelection margin in the precinct.

But Everts, like many voters in her quiet, tree-lined neighborhood, has been undergoing a political shift. This time, Everts says, things will be different.

Four years of Rogan’s conservative policies have been enough for Everts, who switched registration from Republican to Democrat and plans to vote this November for Democratic challenger Adam Schiff, a state senator from Burbank.

“He lost my confidence,” Everts said of Rogan, citing his opposition to abortion and complaining that he has not done enough on other women’s issues.

And there was Rogan’s role as a House prosecutor in the impeachment of President Clinton.

“I was totally disappointed with Rogan,” she said. “I thought it was a cheap shot. Nobody gives a damn about what the president does in the bedroom. We care more that we have a balanced budget, that there are more jobs, that there is a better quality of life.”

Like much of the 27th Congressional District, Everts’ precinct, west of Brand Boulevard and north of Glenoaks Boulevard, is no longer the bastion of white conservatism that once earned it the reputation of being a little Orange County in Los Angeles.

There has been a large influx of immigrants, and today about a third of the 938 registered voters in the precinct are Asian, Latino or Armenian American, records show.

The shifts have led Rogan to spend the early months of his campaign targeting Democrats and independents in the precinct and in the district as a whole.

“I’m spending considerable time in minority communities, and it shows in my campaign’s ability to attract . . . crossover voters,” Rogan said. “This means I can’t spend as much time at the chambers of commerce and Rotary clubs.”

Transition to Upscale Apartments

Rogan has only recently begun diverting some of that effort to shore up his Republican base in precincts like 2550069A in north Glendale. The eight-square-block area is home to about 2,000 people. Once a neighborhood of mostly single-family homes, in the last few decades, it has seen a transition to upscale apartment buildings and condominiums, a leafy-green haven with a small commercial strip that includes a Korean-owned cafe.

Rogan is counting on voters like Frances Campbell, a staunch partisan in an area of declining Republican loyalty. The percentage of GOP voter registration in the precinct is 41.7%, versus 36.4% Democrat, an anomaly in a congressional district that is 44% Democrat and 37% Republican.

Campbell voted for Rogan in 1996, 1998 and in this year’s primary. She plans to vote for him again in November.

“He just seems more mature than the other guy,” said Campbell, who teaches at a computer lab. “I just like him and the way he has represented me. He stands on principle.”

She agreed with Rogan’s stand on impeachment, even though she voted for Clinton eight years ago, as did many of her neighbors. Clinton won the congressional district in both 1992 and 1996.

“The changes have been very dramatic,” Schiff said. “The opportunity for us is we have a new economy based very much on technology and a lot of young people moving in.”

Schiff’s campaign has targeted the young professionals, many of them Democrats, but also “the younger, more socially liberal Republicans, the more wired workers,” said Parke Skelton, a campaign consultant for the senator.

The Rogan-Schiff race is one of the most closely watched in the nation, as Democrats need to win seven seats to gain control of the House of Representatives. The candidates have raised a combined $7.5 million, and the contest is expected to be the costliest House race in U. S. history. Clinton personally helped Schiff raise $250,000 at a Washington, D. C., fund-raiser June 27.

In Rogan’s 1998 reelection, he won the north Glendale precinct by about 51% to 46%.

But in the March open primary, Schiff won more votes than Rogan, 48.8% to 47.3%, while the incumbent won the precinct by 3%.

Just two months before election day, mailers and television commercials are becoming ubiquitous.

Rogan began his campaign with media buys in May, forcing Schiff to buy time on cable television and send mail months before he was planning to do so, Skelton said.

Schiff’s campaign is spending $21,000 a week on running cable television ads, compared with the $40,000 a week spent by Rogan, according to the respective camps.

“My message to them is look at our track record,” Schiff said. “My opponent has done virtually nothing in Congress for the benefit of the district. We’ve been successful, for four years in the Senate, at proactively representing the district, whether it is protecting open space or bringing light rail to Pasadena.”

Because Rogan can win all of the Republican vote and still lose the election, his strategy until now has almost exclusively targeted Democrats and independents.

“Republicans have got to reach out beyond our comfort zone if we are going to establish ourselves as a permanent majority party,” Rogan said. “That’s where my focus has been.”

Rogan Targets ‘Crossover’ Issues

The congressman has hit Democrats and independents with up to three mailers a week, television ads, phone banking and door-to-door canvassing on “crossover” issues, including education and HMO reform, said Jason Roe, campaign manager for Rogan.

But Rogan received a wake-up call recently with a polling that showed he needed to shore up his Republican base, especially with conservatives.

“We had done nothing with the Republican base,” Roe said. “Our first mailer to Republicans didn’t go out until the convention.”

So Republicans are getting mail highlighting Rogan’s plan to use much of the federal surplus for tax cuts and accusing Schiff of finding new ways to spend government surpluses.

That is working with Campbell, although, as the demographic shift in the district has shown, Rogan may not be able to count on many voters like her for long.

Campbell said she is considering a move to Virginia.

“I loved Glendale 30 years ago. It was much more quiet, residential,” Campbell said. “Now it’s incredibly crowded and noisy, and it’s too expensive. I don’t like it here anymore.”

Campbell said she feels sad about the possibility of contributing to the shift toward a more Democratic district, and she especially worries about Rogan.

“I hope he survives,” she said.

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Precinct Profile

A profile of Precinct No. 2550069A in north Glendale:

* In the March 7 open primary, 329 of the precinct’s 938 registered voters went to the polls.

* Rogan led the tally by 10 votes, 144 to 134.

* In 1996, Rogan was first elected to the congressional seat after winning the precinct by 60 votes--235 for Rogan and 175 for for Democrat Dough Khan.

* In 1998, when 376 precinct voters went to the polls, Rogan won by 15 votes, with 178 votes for Rogan and 163 for Democrat Barry Gordon.

* The 1980 Census said the census tract that includes the precinct was 93.8% white.

* An analysis of the precinct today finds that 4% of the registered voters are Asian, 14.7% are Armenian American and 11.5% are Latino.

* Voter registration in the precinct is currently 36.4% Democrat, 41.7% Republican and 21.7% Independent, other parties and declined to state.

* The 27th Congressional District is 43.6% Democratic and 37.4% Republican. In 1996 the district was 44% Democratic and 43% Republican.