For White Males, Bush Is Their Guy

By HECTOR TOBAR

Sept. 11, 2000 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

DAYTON, Ohio —

George Hulshult sits behind home plate at the new downtown ballpark here and tries to explain how men and women see things differently, and why George W. Bush is so popular among a certain kind of male voter.

“Gore looks like he’s been babied,” explained Hulshult, a 32-year-old cook who voted for Clinton in 1992, but not in 1996. “Bush looks like someone who’s been around, who’s seen things. I picture Gore crying. He seems very emotional. He looks like he’d break down more often.”

Although Gore is narrowly leading in the race nationally, Bush has the loyal backing of voters like Hulshult, a member of a key voting bloc that makes up about 40% of the electorate--white men.

Recent polls--including one released Thursday--show Bush holding a wide lead among white males even as he trails overall. In recent history, only Ronald Reagan has held white male voters in such thrall. If Bush beats Gore this November, it will be thanks in large measure to the combined force of this gender and race gap.

If you go to the “guy” places in this Midwestern industrial city in a highly competitive state, and ask the white men you encounter why Bush is their guy, they’ll give you a variety of answers.

A few raise familiar resentments about affirmative action. Many confess to knowing little about Bush the younger--he is a vague figure to them, not nearly as familiar as his father. They say they’ll vote for Bush because they like the Republican platform, and also to spite a certain boomer president whose very name sends them into paroxysms of anger.

“Bill Clinton spent eight years lying to America,” said Carl Lillis, 46, a retired police officer, downing a beer with buddies at a local watering hole. “Women are taken in by his [expletive]. They’re willing to forgive him. The men see through him and know him for the lying [expletive] he is. Gore spent too many years with him. He’s tainted by that. You can’t wash that off.”

A few minutes later, Lillis and two of his buddies were off to catch the opening pitch of the minor league Dayton Dragons’ last game of the regular season, against the Burlington (Iowa) Bees. An informal survey of two dozen white men around the ballpark found a breakdown in loyalties similar to those in the national polls, with a conspicuous majority backing Bush.

Tom Stodd, a 38-year-old registered Republican, gave three reasons for voting for Bush that neatly summarized the GOP candidate’s appeal to white men here: “Basically, the Republican values is what I like, that’s how I vote. . . . I’m ready for a change [from Clinton]. . . . And I respect what Bush’s father did, too.”

Stodd picked a winner the last time he voted, siding with Clinton over Bob Dole in 1996. Voters in Ohio’s 3rd Congressional District, centered on Dayton, have gone with the winner in the last five elections.

The city has been famous as a bellwether of political trends since the 1970s, when political commentators Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg argued in “The Real Majority” that national elections are won by those who conquer the center. Their typical “middle voter” was a “47-year-old housewife from Dayton whose husband is a machinist.”

Bush, Gore Hope to Gain Voters in Dayton

This year, both Gore and Bush have visited Dayton, a gritty factory town whose fate has long been tied to the ups and downs of car companies like General Motors and Chrysler.

Older and middle-aged men in Dayton have seen the world they knew as young adults fall apart and, now, come back together again. The booming national economy has brought high-tech jobs to the region and the hope that the city’s aging downtown might see a renaissance.

The new 7,000-seat stadium of the Dayton Dragons is the cornerstone of those hopes. Set amid aging warehouses and factories, it’s designed in the nostalgic style of Baltimore’s Camden Yards, with a brick front entrance and old-fashioned scoreboard.

The sense of optimism and good times here is Gore’s biggest ally, strengthening his support among blue-collar men, most of whom are union members with traditional ties to Democrats.

“I’ve been real comfortable with Clinton,” said John Wacaster, a 50-year-old printing press operator. “Let’s face it, the country has benefited from his administration. I see my situation has improved. So I’m for the carry-over. I see all my friends, they all have work. They seem to be happy with their situation too, even though deep down they’re Republicans.”

A plurality of white men have voted for Republican candidates in every election since 1980, when Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by a 2 to 1 ratio, according to Times exit polls. Since then, only Clinton has come close to narrowing the gap, winning 35% of the white male vote to Dole’s 41%.

The gender gap has become a chasm in this year’s race. This week, a Reuters poll found women supporting Gore by 21 percentage points, and men supporting Bush by 11 points. Gore had a lead among all voters of 6 points.

Bush was leading among all income groups of male voters, but his margin increased with the respondent’s wealth. A survey by The Times taken before the Democratic National Convention found Gore fares best among white men from middle class and union households, although he still trailed Bush in all financial categories.

Neither Candidate a Perfect Match

Besides questions of style and demeanor, white men here are drawn to Bush by his (and his party’s) stand on a number of issues, including gun control.

“I want to keep my guns,” said Michael Ernst, a 36-year-old machinist. “If Gore gets elected, he’s going to really try to take our guns away.”

Still, Ernst is not completely happy with Bush either. He worries that big money has taken over politics. “It costs $10,000 to $20,000 to actually talk to a candidate,” he said, echoing the theme that Arizona Sen. John McCain made the hallmark of his presidential campaign last spring. “It’s not free speech if it costs money.”

Late into the game, sitting behind home plate, Ernst mused about his real dream ticket. Not Bush-Cheney, but “Ventura-Nugent,” as in Minnesota Gov. (and former pro wrestler) Jesse Ventura and rock star-cum-gun rights advocate Ted Nugent.

Michael Hayes liked his friend’s choice for vice president. “I think he’d be a hell of a running mate.”

But with Ventura and Nugent off the radar screen this year, both Ernst and Hayes seemed resigned to the Democratic candidate winning the election. “I bet you, the gays and the women will vote for Gore,” Hayes said as the Village People’s “YMCA” started to blare over the stadium’s public address system.

The sense that white men are losing out to the voting power of “special-interest groups” was shared by others at the game. Some look at Bush--whose views on “diversity” and affirmative action are moderate by Republican standards--as the lesser of two evils.

“I don’t think there’s a party out there right now that represents the middle-class white male,” said Gary Tipton, 49.

What seemed to rile Tipton most as he discussed the election and his choices were the affirmative action programs he says have favored women and minorities at his place of employment, the Dayton Police Department.

“You don’t pass over people who’ve paid their dues just so we can achieve ‘a better reflection of society,’ ” he said in a mocking tone. “I have nothing to do with what my forefathers did to various people. For me to be punished is unfair.”

A moment later, however, he hedged his remarks a bit. “I have five sisters-in-law, three sisters and two daughters. So I know what the glass ceiling is.”

But the two buddies who accompanied Tipton to the game were not willing to give women voters any breaks.

Carl Lillis could barely conceal his disgust as he recounted the female callers he heard recently on Rush Limbaugh’s radio program. “They said they were switching to Gore because of what they call ‘the kiss.’ To me, picking a presidential candidate because he kissed his wife is absurd.”

Larry Simmons, 48, delighted in the backlash vented by male callers to Limbaugh’s program: “People were saying, ‘Why did we ever give them the right to vote?’ ”

Many See Bush as a Strong Leader

Most people at the game were not quite so angry and vociferous. They said they would vote for Bush mostly because they see in him a reflection of their own values--respect for family and personal honor, especially. Gore loses on these points thanks in large part to his link with Clinton.

“I’m leaning toward Bush, because I’m assuming he’s going to follow his father’s beliefs,” said John Fisher, a software consultant, as he stood on a walkway behind the center field fence. It was his 12-year-old daughter’s birthday, and he was waiting to see her name flash on the scoreboard. “What I know about Gore, I don’t like.”

Fisher said he just didn’t see Gore as a strong leader. Many men share this belief, as shown by a number of recent polls.

A recent Gallup survey found that in the weeks after the Democratic convention, Gore had not only failed to significantly increase his vote among men, he also failed to meaningfully improve his image. The percentage of men with a favorable opinion of Gore rose only from 48% before the convention to 51% after; by contrast, Gore’s favorable standing among women soared by 18 percentage points.

And in the post-convention survey, men by more than 2 to 1 were more likely to consider Bush a strong leader than Gore--an advantage just as lopsided as in Gallup’s pre-convention survey.

Why do more men see the leader in Bush but not in Gore?

“Bush is a guy’s guy. He’s from Texas, so he’s more of a he-man, a leatherneck type,” explains Matt Randall, a 22-year-old with a tattoo on his biceps, creeping out from under a sleeve. “You think Texas, you think guns, that sort of stuff. Gore, he’s sensitive. He’s supposed to be for the environment. He’s always talking about kids and families.”

As it happens, Randall is leaning toward voting for Gore. His reservations about the Republicans’ conservative social platform--”I’m young and I tend to lean toward liberalism”--outweigh his concerns about Gore being “wishy-washy.”

And besides, Randall adds, how much can the average voter really know about the men behind the image? “All we get is what the media tells us,” he said. “So it’s kind of like stabbing in the dark.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

BLOC BY BLOC

Key Voting Group: White Men

In the last five presidential elections, white men nationwide have supported the Republican candidate, and polls indicate they will strongly favor Republican George W. Bush in the 2000 race.

2000 POLL

George W. Bush (R): 55%

Al Gore (D): 31%

Ralph Nader (Green): 6%

Pat Buchanan (Reform): 2%

PAST ELECTIONS

1996

Bob Dole (R): 1%

Bill Clinton (D): 36%

Ross Perot (Reform): 11%

1992

George Bush (R): 41%