Common Bonds Don’t Tie Women to Hillary Clinton

During a recent visit to a Rotary Club in suburban Westchester County, Hillary Rodham Clinton joked that when she drove past a nearby Saks Fifth Avenue store, “my heart started to beat. If I talk a little faster and leave a little early, you’ll know where to find me.”

The comment might have seemed like a throwaway line, but there was also calculation behind it: In her tight race for the U.S. Senate, virtually all the polls have shown Hillary Clinton trailing among white female voters, especially in affluent suburbs. Although she has tried to prove that she is one of them--in this case by presenting herself as a passionate shopper--many spurn her.

Closing the gap will be a major task for the first lady today in Buffalo, when she squares off in the first of several debates with her opponent, Republican Rep. Rick Lazio. But accomplishing her goal may prove difficult for Clinton, given the skeptical views that many women, including supporters, voice about her campaign.

“One of the dirty little secrets of American politics is that women judge female candidates much more harshly than male politicians,” said GOP political consultant Jay Severein. “And when it comes to Hillary Clinton, the issue is magnified. She’s a very polarizing figure, so many view her with suspicion.”

Lazio has problems of his own. Indeed, the boyish-looking Long Island moderate who entered the contest in May after New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani dropped out has yet to define himself to many voters. That has left him open to attacks as a right-wing Republican out of touch with voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic state.

Polls consistently have shown Clinton and Lazio essentially deadlocked for the last four months; the latest survey by Zogby International gave the first lady the barest of leads, 47% to 45%, among likely voters.

“Both candidates hope this first debate will unlock them in the polls,” said veteran Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf. “But she’s got a particularly big problem now because the Senate race has become a referendum on her.”

No trend underscores this more than Clinton’s continuing dissonance with suburban white women, who in some surveys oppose her by margins as large as 56% to 36%. The flip-side for Clinton--and what helps her remain competitive--is her overwhelming support from African American women, which has totaled 83% in several surveys.

White Women the Largest Voting Bloc

However, white female voters are crucial in a tight election, and not just because they constitute the state’s largest single voting bloc, said New York pollster Maurice Carroll, who directs the Quinnipiac Poll. Their turnout rate is high, he said, and they often cross party lines. In a state where Democrat Al Gore has a double-digit lead over Republican George W. Bush in the presidential race, the closeness of the Senate campaign suggests that many Democratic white women do not plan to vote a straight party line.

Clinton formally took her place Tuesday as the Democratic Senate nominee, easily winning the party’s primary (Lazio was designated the GOP nominee at an earlier party convention). As their race enters the final weeks, it appears destined to set a new fund-raising record for a U.S. Senate campaign, with both sides expected to spend a combined $60 million.

Most voters appear to have made up their mind long ago: Clinton leads among voters in New York City, trails Lazio by a small margin in traditionally Republican upstate New York and is running poorly in Westchester, Long Island and other suburbs that her husband carried handily in the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns.

With these patterns seemingly set in place, vast amounts of money will be spent on TV ads and other appeals targeting the small number of swing voters, people like Kelly Chase.

“I still don’t know if I’m going to vote for her or not,” said Chase, a physical therapist from Westchester County, as she shopped near the Saks Fifth Avenue store that Clinton mentioned. “I’ve got a lot of big questions.”

Inauthenticity Cited by Some About Clinton

Like other women interviewed in the upscale Westchester Mall, Chase ticked off a litany of concerns: Clinton seems rigid and inauthentic, an overly ambitious carpetbagger who defended her husband during the Monica S. Lewinsky scandal mainly to boost her own career.

Other women said it was inappropriate for a first lady to use her office as a political springboard and deeply resent that Clinton is attempting to climb the electoral ladder so fast.

“There’s something to be said for starting in the mail room and working your way up,” said Amy Scher, a public school science coordinator who lives in nearby Pleasantville. “She’s coming on so strong, so fast. But can she really do the job?”

The polls have shown such attitudes particularly prevalent among middle-age and older white women. In part, these reactions are brought on by Clinton’s particular chemistry with voters. Ever since she made her controversial comments in 1992 about not wanting to be a woman who stayed home to bake cookies, she has been wrestling with a public identity that has sparked a backlash among some women.

“I think there’s a perception that she is hugely ambitious and will do anything to advance her career,” said Cindy Tague, a Bronxville attorney who lives in a community near the Clinton’s Chappaqua home. “We all know she’s very smart and determined, but there’s something about her that doesn’t ring true. And it makes me uneasy.”

Champions Hail Her Stance on Key Issues

To be sure, Clinton has ardent champions, both in New York and across the nation. They hail her aggressive advocacy on issues such as abortion rights, health care and education, and say those are the key issues facing voters in the New York race.

“How, as a smart, professional woman, could you not vote for Hillary Clinton?” asked actress Morgan Graham, as she window-shopped near the Saks store. “Is it a crime to be politically ambitious? Men are ambitious all the time.”

But not in the same way, caution some political experts. Clinton’s campaign is setting a new and uncomfortable precedent for some voters, especially women, according to Nora Bredes, director of the Susan B. Anthony Center for Women’s Leadership at the University of Rochester.

“Many women find an incongruity when someone who has assumed a nurturing role, like first lady, suddenly tries to take on a leadership role,” said Bredes. “There’s great ambivalence about this, and it’s magnified in Clinton’s case. The women who have held her position have been the Bible holders at American inaugurations--but they have not been the ones who put their hands on the same Bibles.”

When Clinton formally launched her campaign last January, press spokesman Howard Wolfson said she would succeed in her effort to win over disaffected women. Her failure to do so has opened a window of opportunity for Lazio, but so far he has failed to capitalize on it.

Some media critics have labeled him “The UnHillary,” a candidate who simply runs against her instead of offering a coherent alternative. The strategy worked up to a point because Lazio went from being a virtual unknown in May to a well-funded candidate who has pulled even in the polls.

“But this only gets you so far,” said Sheinkopf. “If he’s going to reach out to women voters, he’d better get started.”

Just ask Joan Wiener, a retiree shopping near Saks in the Westchester Mall. She doesn’t have any intention of voting for “what’s his name,” as she refers to Lazio, even though she has plenty of harsh things to say about Clinton.

“I don’t like her because she’s not a warm person,” said the longtime New Yorker. “But then I think about the Supreme Court and who she’d vote for on the abortion issue, and I think, maybe I’ll wind up voting for her after all.”

Wiener makes a sour face and adds: “It reminds me of what [former New York Mayor] Ed Koch once said about Jimmy Carter. I’ll probably vote for Hillary Clinton--holding my nose.”