Summer Falls as a Little Rain Drops

Unless you think speck-sized droplets constitute a downpour, you can put away the poncho and the Paddington Bear hat. Yes, fall arrived Friday, and the clouds say “rain.” But don’t believe them.

Despite short bursts of heavier rain in scattered areas late Friday, serious rain that makes your shoes splash on the sidewalk is a relatively far-off thing, said Stan Wasowski, a National Weather Service forecaster. Friday evening’s misty drizzle in parts of Orange County and other late night or early morning bouts of precipitation are about as close to a torrent as things typically get in early autumn in Southern California.

“We’re really going to have to wait for November or December for any serious rains,” said Wasowski.

In fact, fall will be drier than normal, according to the Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

And strong Santa Ana winds that can bring dry weather and brush fires in the canyons are on their way, Wasowski said. On Oct. 27, 1993, a Santa Ana wind-aided fire destroyed more than 300 homes in Laguna Beach.

“We’re not going to be coming out of fire season any time soon,” Orange County Fire Authority Capt. Paul Hunter said.

Fire departments will call in more firefighters and equipment than normal to fight blazes, particularly in high brush areas, Hunter said.

A key indicator of fire danger is the “live fuel moisture” level in vegetation. This represents the amount of moisture in plants, Hunter said. The more moisture in plants, the smaller the chance that a fire would spread.

“Right now, fuel moisture levels are down, percentage-wise,” Hunter said. “That makes it easier for wild land areas to burn with more intensity. Put a little wind behind the fire and it spreads more rapidly.”

Strong winds can offset the benefits of moisture rather quickly, Hunter said.

“Three days of Santa Ana winds can dry things out and that changes the scenario really quick,” he said.

Cloudy skies should continue until Sunday afternoon, when temperatures will begin to rise through midweek, according to WeatherData Inc., which provides weather forecasts for The Times.

The good news for those who like cooler days is that, beginning next week, nights will become as long as days, causing heat to dissipate more quickly.