Split Senate Gives More Muscle to Its Members

Call it the tyranny of the individual.

Members of the U.S. Senate have always wielded a lot of power, but this session’s 50-50 split between the parties has enhanced the clout of each and every one. And that is especially true this week, with a handful of senators having the power to plunge a dagger into the heart of President Bush’s domestic agenda.

With a vote scheduled Friday on a budget resolution that incorporates Bush’s plan to cut taxes and slow government spending, GOP leaders are spending their time figuring out every fence-sitter’s price for staying on board.

Consider the unlikely result: Even as the White House confronted international crises that reached from China to Yugoslavia to the Middle East this week, Vice President Dick Cheney, a pillar of the administration’s foreign policy team, had a more urgent mission. He was meeting with an obscure Senate backbencher, Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.).

Chafee has been getting such royal treatment because he is one of a handful of Republicans threatening to vote against the president’s tax cut and budget. Chafee is proving a hard vote to win: During Tuesday’s debate, he joined 49 Democrats in voting to siphon $300 billion from the Bush tax cut to increase funding for a new Medicare prescription drug benefit. His defection created a 50-50 deadlock that led Cheney to cast his first tiebreaking vote.

The GOP effort to woo other lawmakers is a big reason the Senate is expected to add more money than Bush wanted for agriculture programs--to keep senators from farm states happy, including Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska, a possible convert. That’s also why GOP leaders are likely to agree to spend more for education--to keep Sen. James M. Jeffords (R-Vt.) happy. And adding more money for defense could help bring along Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Another byproduct of the 50-50 Senate is that both parties are showing a remarkable degree of party discipline. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) managed to keep all but three Democrats together to support campaign finance legislation this week. Republicans kept everyone--even Chafee--in line to pass a bill repealing workplace ergonomic rules earlier this year.

The threat of defections in the 50-50 Senate is particularly powerful in the debate on Bush’s budget and tax cut because those are defining issues for both parties. “The strongest leverage goes to the holdouts,” lamented one senior aide to the GOP leadership.

This environment creates an opportunity for deal-makers such as Sen. John B. Breaux (D-La.), a centrist who as early as today plans to propose a tax cut alternative of $1.25 trillion--midway between the $1.6-trillion tax cut Bush is pushing and the $900 billion many Democrats back.

GOP leaders, in working to keep their troops together, argue that Republicans owe it to Bush to give his fiscal proposals a chance--and that the vote on them will have long-term implications for his presidency.

“All of us appreciate the importance of this budget and this tax cut proposal to the president and his presidency,” said Sen. Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho).

He predicted: “When this process is over, the president will be able to declare a victory.”

In a private meeting to appeal for united GOP support for the budget resolution, Cheney argued that Republican control of the Senate was also at stake. Defeating Bush’s budget, he argued, would amount to “handing the keys to this place to Tom Daschle,” according to participants in the closed-door meeting who asked not to be identified.

Chafee, for one, has been unmoved by such entreaties that he toe the party line.

After Cheney addressed Senate Republicans last week, Chafee rose and questioned the wisdom of passing the budget by a deeply partisan 51-50 margin. Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas) retorted: Would you rather it lose by 51 to 49?

Chafee’s maverick streak follows in the tradition set by the man he succeeded in the Senate--his father, John H. Chafee. The elder Chafee, who died in 1999, rarely hesitated to break with GOP leaders, especially on cultural issues.

The younger Chafee, while indicating he will vote against the budget resolution, has given his leadership one important concession: He agreed to vote with the party on several crucial procedural matters.

Chafee seemed unconcerned about possible retribution for breaking with the party on the budget resolution. “It’s still 50-50,” Chafee said of the Senate. “They will need me on other votes.”

Others are trying to parlay their fence-sitting position into gains for their causes. Jeffords demonstrated his independence in February when he became the first Republican to express opposition to a tax cut as big as Bush had proposed. But he is now telling GOP leaders he may back the budget resolution if it significantly increases funding for education of the disabled; he is seeking $180 billion over 10 years in guaranteed funding for that program.

Several other Northeastern Republicans have been uneasy about the tax cut because they are unsure whether projected budget surpluses will materialize. They have extracted commitments from GOP leaders to include some mechanism for revisiting or blocking the cut if surpluses are smaller than expected.

With many farm-state senators clamoring for more funding for the Agriculture Department than allowed in Bush’s budget, the GOP leaders are planning to offer an amendment to increase farm aid. That is expected to help solidify the support of Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, the only Democrat so far to announce his support for Bush’s budget and tax cut. It also will appeal to Nelson, the Nebraska Democrat who has been meeting with Republicans and administration officials on that topic.

The administration has been wooing Nelson for weeks. Bush and Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman have visited his home state. Bush gave him a ride on Air Force One. But they are using the stick as well as the carrot: The Republican National Committee sent out an e-mail urging its members to call Nelson about the tax cut, according to Nelson spokesman David DiMartino.

As of Tuesday, Nelson was still holding out. “I’m a maybe,” he said, adding that he preferred Breaux’s $1.25-trillion tax cut alternative. “I think it’s better to have a bipartisan approach.”

Another fence-sitter who has amply demonstrated his power in the 50-50 Senate is McCain, who refrained from taking a stand on the budget resolution while shepherding his campaign finance reform bill through the Senate. The bill was approved Monday, but McCain still is holding back.

He said Tuesday he wanted more money for defense--and may get it before the week is out. Despite reservations about the size of the Bush tax cut, McCain said, “I would lean toward giving the president his budget.”

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Times staff writer Greg Miller contributed to this story.