Mayoral Hopefuls Race Toward Finish With 3 Clearly in the Lead

Los Angeles voters will go to the polls Tuesday to select just the third new mayor in more than a quarter-century, a decision complicated by the city’s relative political equilibrium and by the presence of a capable field of candidates tested in a long and increasingly contentious campaign.

Recent opinion surveys, including the Times Poll, suggest that most voters are coalescing around three candidates--City Atty. James K. Hahn, former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and businessman Steve Soboroff. Only two can qualify for the runoff, which will be held June 5 if no candidate gets a majority Tuesday.

Each draws his support from a different slice of the city’s political geography. And their biographies emphasize the range of choices they offer as Los Angeles contemplates the selection of its first mayor of the 21st century.

There is Hahn, the temperate administrator and scion of one of the region’s best-known political families. Then there is Villaraigosa, the passionate, up-from-nowhere Eastside coalition builder. And, finally, there is Soboroff, the roll-up-your-sleeves businessman and protege of outgoing Mayor Richard Riordan.

They are not alone, however. Trailing but still commanding significant chunks of the Los Angeles electorate are three other credible candidates: state Controller Kathleen Connell, the only woman among the top six candidates and a capable debater who has consistently cast the city government as desperately in need of overhaul; City Councilman Joel Wachs, a nimble campaigner who has turned his quick wit against the special interests he says dominate local affairs; and U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles), a well-educated lawyer who has run a gentle campaign directed at revitalizing Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Those three each hold out hope--though fading--of elbowing their way into a runoff against one of the favorites.

As they make their final push, however, it is the front-runners who have made the most apparent progress in the essential task of Los Angeles politics: assembling a base and then moving beyond it.

Hahn first stakes his claim among African American voters in South Los Angeles, just like his father, the late county Supervisor Kenneth Hahn, who represented the area for four decades. He then appeals to liberals and moderates across the city--similar to the alliance created by the late five-term mayor, Tom Bradley.

Soboroff’s formula begins just where Riordan’s did--mostly with white conservatives and some moderates in the San Fernando Valley and on the Westside.

And Villaraigosa gets his best footing among liberals, Latinos, Jews and voters on the Westside--a new coalition that some believe could be even more potent in the future, as Latino voting strength continues to grow.

“The most interesting factor in the election thus far is the emergence of the Latino community,” said Raphael Sonenshein, a Cal State Fullerton political scientist who has written extensively about politics in Los Angeles. “They may be creating a new, third route to power. And that affects the way everyone else is running, too.”

While some things change in politics, some remain the same. The split in the candidates’ fortunes in large measure reflects their differing abilities to raise money. Hahn, Villaraigosa and Soboroff have far surpassed their rivals in that regard--in Soboroff’s case, in part because of his personal contributions to his campaign.

Yet no candidate for mayor has been able to break away from the field. The level of engagement by key voting groups will be crucial on election day, with a number of questions still unanswered:

* Hahn will visit six African American churches today, hoping to whip up turnout among his key supporters. But will black voters turn out in large numbers to vote for Hahn or because of another competitive race on the ballot, the campaign to fill the late Julian Dixon’s seat in the Congress?

* Latinos have long been looming as a political force in the city in which they will soon become a majority. They surpassed blacks in number of voters for the first time in the 1997 mayoral election. But to succeed, Villaraigosa hopes to boost that 15% Latino turnout to at least 20%. Will that happen without immigration, affirmative action or other hot-button issues for Latinos on the ballot?

* Moderate and conservative white voters shook up the city’s Democratic status quo by electing Riordan, a Republican venture capitalist, in 1993. Is the city’s psyche such that those voters will again be determined to vote for a white, Republican businessman and outsider--Soboroff, the former Recreation and Parks commissioner?

Even slight variations in the answers could determine the outcome in what most experts predict will be an extremely tight finish. Only about half a million people are expected to vote on Tuesday in the city of nearly 4 million. The result of that apathy: just over 100,000 votes should be enough to win a trip to Round 2.

Many Changes in One Year

A year ago, many of the city’s political pundits predicted it would not be nearly so close. Only Hahn and Wachs seemed to have profiles and political bases substantial enough to be the next mayor.

The coalition of powerful insiders backing Hahn, in particular, seemed secure that he could coast into a runoff, a prediction Hahn himself comfortably espoused. Other political professionals and pundits had no doubt: On his third try, Wachs would finally win his way into a mayoral runoff.

A lot can happen in a year.

A sleepy election that had long been searching for a central theme has gained fire only in its final days. Early favorite Hahn--his support significant but stalled, according to polls--has been transformed from amiable to combative. Wachs failed to gain momentum, and his strangely lackluster campaign has never advanced in the polls.

Much of the other conventional wisdom has also been upended: Villaraigosa, once thought to be a long shot because of the presence of another Latino candidate, has proved to be a strong contender. Soboroff has advanced from 1% in the polls to within striking range of the lead. Connell has failed to gain a footing, even with women voters, a development that has surprised her opponents.

Remarkably calm and colorless for months, most of the election rolled along without a driving issue. When voters were asked what they wanted in their next mayor, a make-over of the public schools was the most frequent response. Others mentioned public safety, police reform and traffic congestion as key issues.

But when the candidates responded to those concerns, they often sounded frustratingly similar, as all six echoed one another’s calls for more neighborhood schools, expanded after-school programs and beefed-up recruitment of police officers.

A few defining stands finally emerged, particularly on the police issue: Soboroff alone opposed federal court oversight of the Police Department, while Villaraigosa welcomed such intervention and Hahn helped negotiate the terms for it. Wachs said he would fire Chief Bernard C. Parks, while Hahn sent signals that he would be the most likely to keep him.

Soboroff and Wachs supported breaking up the school district. Villaraigosa, Connell and Hahn called for more aggressive spending on public housing.

But much of the campaign was defined by a series of events in which the candidates found themselves suddenly embroiled in the news of the day: the Rampart police corruption case, the state’s energy crisis and the commutation of the sentence of a convicted drug trafficker named Carlos Vignali.

“Some of the most interesting things about the race were those aspects the candidates had the least control of, but hung over the race like an albatross,” said Julie Buckner, Connell’s former campaign manager. “No one set the agenda.”

In late January, several Los Angeles politicians found themselves thrust into the controversy over former President Bill Clinton’s 11th-hour pardons when it was revealed that they had written letters to the White House on behalf of convicted drug trafficker Vignali. Becerra and Villaraigosa--who had both received campaign donations from Vignali’s father--were among those who had asked the White House to review the case. Clinton commuted the convict’s sentence.

Becerra had made the most recent efforts to seek a review of the case. He had to counter the appearance that he had done a favor for a donor, a damaging perception for the congressman, known for his “Boy Scout” image.

And Villaraigosa was forced to contend with questions about why he had written a letter in 1996 to the White House insisting that Vignali had been wrongly convicted.

For the former assemblyman, the furor came at an especially inopportune time, just as his candidacy was racking up a string of major endorsements. Villaraigosa quickly apologized for the letter, saying, “I went with my heart . . . not with my head.” But the unflattering image of a lawmaker urging the release of a major player in a drug ring at the behest of a donor haunted him in the final days of the race.

Another surprise issue was the emergence of energy as a campaign debating point. Just two months ago, candidates were predicting that electric power would not be an issue in Los Angeles, because the city’s Department of Water and Power had been immune from the rolling blackouts and skyrocketing rates that plague the rest of the state.

But as the state’s power crisis deepened, Hahn tried to pin the blame on Villaraigosa, saying the former Assembly speaker’s vote for deregulation contributed to the fiasco. Villaraigosa insisted that he had fought to make sure the city utility was exempted from deregulation, and added that he was one of more than 100 legislators who voted for the change.

A week before the election, a new revelation gave fodder to opponents of Hahn and Wachs. A story in The Times reported that in 1996, City Councilman Mike Hernandez had raised questions in a closed-door City Council meeting about problem officers he had heard described as the “Rampart Reapers.” Two representative from Hahn’s office were at the meeting. So was Councilman Wachs.

Both Hahn and Wachs attempted to deflect blame for that slip-up to the LAPD. Then-Chief Willie L. Williams was present at the meeting and assured elected officials that he knew of no such group of rogue officers. But in the final days, the two candidates were forced to field repeated questions about their responsibility for the deep-seated dysfunction in the LAPD.

Those and other issues in part took on life because outside organizations have weighed in heavily in the race, particularly as election day has neared. From the two major political parties and labor unions to, incongruously, an Indian tribe from the Southern California desert, the independent campaigns helped to tilt the campaign decisively toward the front-runners.

Of all the outside interests, the county labor federation has provided the most visible support to any candidate. Villaraigosa captured that group’s backing at a pivotal Feb. 12 meeting, emerging with a one-vote victory in the endorsement contest.

The federation put thousands of volunteers into play, and the Democratic and Republican parties launched expansive campaigns, blessing Villaraigosa and Soboroff with piles of campaign literature.

Those campaigning without such outside help complained bitterly about it.

“It almost seems now--if you aren’t independently wealthy or the favorite son of one of the two parties--you have a problem on your hands,” said Greg Nelson, chief of staff for Wachs.

Nelson is one of a legion of enthusiasts, professionals and others drawn to the possibilities of this campaign. With election day coming up fast, most are pressing for the finish line, the weariness of the long effort etched in their tired faces.

For some, these last days are competitive and full of promise. For others, those who seem unlikely to make the cut, they are about desperate hopes for a change of circumstance.

Late last week, Nelson noted hopefully that Wachs supporters are truly dedicated. Perhaps the councilman can still prevail, he said, if turnout is down. The weather, he said, might cooperate: It could rain on election day.

“If there is a hope,” Nelson said. “It could be there.”

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