Still-Uncertain Voters Could Hold the Key to Mayor’s Race

Richard Volpert is a decisive man. A full partner in a prominent Westside law firm, the 65-year-old Encino resident routinely navigates complicated legal issues, serves on corporate boards and consults with some of the most powerful people in the city. But ask him how he’ll vote in tomorrow’s mayoral election and he gets all wishy-washy.

“I haven’t made up my mind yet,” he confesses, his voice laced with frustration. “I’m thinking of three candidates, Hahn, Villaraigosa and Soboroff. . . . I’m also considering Wachs.

“I don’t like last minute-itis,” Volpert adds. “I’m surprised at my own position. What you’re hearing in my voice is honest uncertainty.”

Even on the eve of the mayoral election, undecided voters are likely to make up a formidable bloc of the electorate. A Times poll last week showed that 15% of likely voters had not settled on a mayoral candidate. In the 1993 election, the last mayoral race that was this close and had a field this crowded, exit polls found that 41% of voters chose their candidate within one week of voting, and 21% made up their minds within 24 hours of voting.

The election Tuesday appears destined to be a close one, with at least three candidates--Soboroff, Hahn and Villaraigosa--seriously vying for two spots in a runoff. Three others--Wachs, U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra and state Controller Kathleen Connell--have waged significant campaigns and still hope to pull off upsets on election day. If none gets a majority in that election--and none is expected to--a runoff election will be held on June 5.

For all of them, undecided voters could be key.

The reason for Los Angeles’ indecision vary. Some say this year’s crop of candidates is so well qualified that it makes little difference who gets voted in at a time when Los Angeles is relatively prosperous and crisis-free. Others complain that the various campaigns have been bland, short on details and indistinguishable from one another. Only two of the 20 people contacted for this article saw or heard any of the mayoral debates broadcast on television or radio during the campaign. But most undecided voters said they are still wavering because they don’t know enough.

Melissa Carter, a Los Feliz screenwriter, is undecided but has someone in mind--or just out of mind. “I forget what his name is. . . . Rick? . . . He’s the Latino guy,” she gropes. “I’m sorry, I have a baby. That’s my excuse. Ask me about astrophysics, anything else.”

Carter soon determines that she means Antonio Villaraigosa, the former speaker of the state Assembly. She’s also considering “that Hahn guy. . . . I’ve seen his ads.”

Indeed, the ads by each candidate are their primary vehicles for reaching people like Carter and Volpert, those who might still be swayed.

The mayoral candidates have ratcheted up their efforts in the final days of the campaign. But many undecided voters say the television ads, the reams of mailers and the last-minute public appearances have amounted to little more than a flurry of glancing blows, none strong enough to sway them one way or another. Although some undecided voters say they have relied on print media and the Internet for information about the candidates, most have turned to the electronic media and been sorely disappointed.

In many cases, undecided voters hope that by the time they close the curtain behind them, half-read fliers and articles, television spots glimpsed out of the corner of their eyes and chats with family, friends and strangers will congeal into an opinion, a feeling, a vibe that’s worth a vote.

Of course, the majority of registered voters probably won’t even make it to the ballot booth. In 1997, only 32% voted. But in an election as close as this one promises to be, turnout could surge. In 1993, a similarly close election drew 45% of eligible voters to the polls. Still, Los Angeles elections routinely draw smaller crowds than those in comparable cities--in part, no doubt, because Los Angeles elections occur in odd-numbered years without higher-profile races on the same ballot.

Los Angeles’ attitude toward its elections, however, may be an extension of the populace’s blase attitude about public space, public transportation, public schools and all things civic.

Asked which issues will inform her decision on the mayoral race, Carter, walking with her husband and 6-month-old son in Los Feliz, is stymied.

“Hmmm, what’s wrong with Los Angeles?” she asks, a little embarrassed. Carter mumbles something about education and keeping schools open, but it is evident that her heart isn’t in it. “One reason I’m not focused on a lot of the issues is that our lives are happy. We’re doing all right.”

Says GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum: “Voters don’t get up every morning and think: ‘What’s the most important issue in Los Angeles?’ No. If you’re commuting from the [San Fernando] Valley you might say transportation is the most important issue. If you’re a poor family and you all live in an apartment you might say housing is the most important issue. Or if you have kids, maybe education. Everybody has a different idea in Los Angeles.”

USC political scientist Sheldon Kamieniecki says the election has not fired voters’ imaginations because “there’s no big, burning issue right now. Even the energy crisis is not that upsetting because DWP has insulated us.

“It’s strange--this is the best talent I’ve ever seen in the mayoral race and there’s no burning issue. It’s almost a waste.”

Vicki Curry, a producer of the KCET public television news show “Life and Times,” has been intimately involved in her station’s coverage of the mayoral race and even attended a debate among the candidates.

“That didn’t help me decide at all,” she says. “With me it’s just an intangible energy thing that I want.”

Sitting in a Crenshaw district barbershop, Internal Revenue Service worker Charlie Brown says he has done his homework. He reads one daily and two weekly newspapers. He’s read the campaign literature. He’s even searched the Internet for information on the campaigns’ donors--but he’s still confused and he still can’t get all of the candidates straight. He calls Kathleen Connell “McConnell.”

“Los Angeles is a very complex place with a diversity of economic backgrounds, cultures and a lot of different issues,” says Brown, the electric clippers humming over his voice. “I still haven’t found anyone with that kind of”--he makes a broadly circular gesture with his arms--”vision.

“I’ll probably go into the booth without a definitive answer,” he adds, “with just a gut feeling.”