At 100 Days and Counting, Bush’s Star on the Rise

When George W. Bush entered the White House 100 days ago, he faced a daunting challenge.

The 43rd president won his office with just 48% of the popular vote, his election secured only by a controversial U.S. Supreme Court ruling. Demonstrators jeered his inaugural parade; comedians lampooned him as a lightweight.

But last week, when a television interviewer asked Bush how he felt about his first three months on the job, the president replied cheerfully: “Pretty darn good.”

The doubts about Bush’s legitimacy are gone now; even his most zealous Democratic critics in Congress acknowledge that.

His policy agenda is making slow but visible progress, beginning with a 10-year tax cut plan that will likely exceed the $1.3 trillion Bush first proposed in his presidential campaign (even if it falls short of the $1.6 trillion he asked Congress to pass).

There have been missteps along the way (“Part of the newness of governing,” aide Karen Hughes concedes) but no blunders big enough to derail Bush from his main priorities: the tax cut, restrained federal spending, education reform and conservative policy shifts on the environment and energy.

And even as he has pursued conservative ends, Bush has preached a conciliatory message. The most important achievement of his first 100 days, the president has said, is “a change of attitude,” a start at making Washington “a better place.”

After only 100 days, the depth and durability of those first steps remain debatable. But Bush’s popularity, already solid among Republicans, has inched up among once skeptical independents and moderate Democrats. A Los Angeles Times poll released today found that 57% of the public approves of Bush’s job performance, about the same level as his immediate predecessors, Bill Clinton and George Bush, 100 days into their presidencies.

“This has been an administration of astonishing professionalism, very remarkable,” said Fred I. Greenstein, a presidential historian at Princeton University.

After a nationally polarizing election campaign and an equally divisive recount and legal battle, he said, “Bush hit the ground running. He’s made a pretty strong start.

“So far, the results are uneven. . . . But if he gets what he’s shooting for, it could be comparable to the first year of Ronald Reagan,” the most successful conservative president of modern times.

Only a few weeks ago, the diagnosis would not have been so upbeat. In March, Bush wrestled with bad economic news, mounting criticism from Democrats about his swing to the right on environmental issues and grumbling from Senate Republicans about his inflexible approach to budget negotiations. His popularity ratings began to sag.

But then the administration, learning from its worst misstep, tightened ship in a way that helped prevent further embarrassments.

On March 20, Environmental Protection Agency chief Christie Whitman announced that the administration had decided to revoke one of Clinton’s last regulatory actions, a tougher standard for arsenic levels in drinking water. Coming after several similar reversals of Clinton policies, the arsenic decision was widely interpreted as a dramatic abandonment of public health concerns.

Inside the White House, Bush’s political aides were “apoplectic,” said one official who attended that morning’s staff meeting chaired by chief of staff Andrew H. Card Jr.

“We were all surprised by the arsenic story,” Hughes said. “It was the first indication that there were things out in the bureaucracy that we didn’t know about. . . . We had to get on top of this.”

Quick Reactions

Hughes, Card and senior political advisor Karl Rove convened a series of emergency meetings to get the message to every federal agency: Regulatory changes had to be coordinated with the White House. Hughes addressed a full meeting of the Cabinet, one of only three Bush has held, to make sure officials understood the need to avoid blindsiding the boss.

Only a week later, another regulatory time bomb surfaced: a proposal in the Agriculture Department to scale back inspections of ground meat for salmonella, a longtime demand of the meat industry. This time the White House quashed the idea in less than a day.

There followed, in the two weeks before Earth Day, a series of highly visible pro-environmental actions by Bush, capped by a telegenic Rose Garden ceremony to announce his embrace of a hitherto obscure treaty to ban 12 lethal chemicals.

“Now a Republican administration will continue and complete the work of a Democratic administration,” Bush said, flanked by his two most moderate Cabinet officers, Whitman and Secretary of State Colin L. Powell. “This is the way environmental policy should work.”

Hughes and other Bush aides insist Bush didn’t change his course on any decisions to blunt criticism of his environmental rollbacks. But they acknowledge that they deliberately gave his more “centrist” actions a higher profile than they might have received otherwise.

The episode--which one aide described as an organizational “turning point”--reflected two central facts about the Bush administration. First, it is fundamentally conservative in outlook; March’s regulatory changes came partly from conservative activists that the White House installed in federal agencies with instructions to undo Clinton’s policies.

Second, it is run by a cohesive, experienced cadre of political managers, many of whom worked for Bush when he was governor of Texas, piloted his successful presidential campaign, moved with him to Washington--and knew how to act fast when a course correction was called for.

Key members are Rove, who chairs a long-range planning council called the Strategery Group, a self-mocking reference to a “Saturday Night Live” sendup of Bush’s verbal miscues; Hughes, the message czar, who turns Rove’s strategy into day-to-day actions and events; Card, who served Bush’s father as deputy White House chief of staff; and Vice President Dick Cheney, who plays a key role as the administration’s most experienced Washington hand.

Part of their mission is to reproduce a Bush strategy that largely succeeded when he was governor for six years: a relentless focus on a small number of key objectives.

Reviewing Defense Plan

In his first term in Texas, Bush focused on education, welfare reform, crime and tort reform. In the White House the list is: tax cuts, education, Social Security and defense policy.

The first few months have been reserved for tax cuts and education reform. But a high-level defense policy review is already underway, and aides say Bush plans to name a bipartisan Social Security commission soon with instructions to report back within the year.

Most other issues are kept off the agenda lest they distract from the main goals. California’s power crisis doesn’t get visible attention from Bush because he doesn’t want to suggest that the administration is responsible for solving it. Riots in Cincinnati didn’t draw a visit, or even a statement, from the president.

Some outside events are too big to duck, especially in international affairs. But Bush won generally high marks in the first test of his ability to manage a crisis, the forced landing of a Navy EP-3 surveillance plane after a collision with a Chinese jet fighter.

After an initial misstep--a statement demanding the immediate return of the plane and crew, with a truculent tone that played badly in Beijing--Bush put the problem in the hands of Secretary of State Powell, who brought it to a successful conclusion. One result: Public approval of Bush’s leadership in foreign policy is now as high as or higher than for his stewardship of the economy or the environment.

In today’s Washington, however, Bush’s careful stewardship of a limited agenda may not be enough to bring it home. His success will depend on two factors largely beyond his control: Congress and the economy.

In Congress, the president declared his desire for bipartisanship--but instead of negotiating toward a middle ground on his tax cut, he traveled to the home states of Democratic senators facing tough reelection battles to whip up grass-roots conservative pressure in his favor.

“He’s been waging a 51-vote strategy,” seeking to peel away just enough Democratic votes to win, complained Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.). “That’s not bipartisanship.”

Once Bush wins some kind of tax cut--and almost everyone agrees he will get one between the Democrats’ $1.2 trillion and his $1.6 trillion--he faces a series of tough fights over spending on federal programs.

The president has said he wants to hold increases in “domestic discretionary” spending--non-defense spending that Congress controls in annual appropriations bills--to 4%. But Democrats have warned that they won’t support his core proposal for education reform unless he agrees to significantly more funding for schools in poor areas, and several Republicans agree. Other legislators want more money for agriculture, energy research, transportation, prescription drug coverage for the elderly and other programs.

Then there’s the uncertain economy, whose course could determine whether Bush serves only one term--like his father, who lost the job by appearing unconcerned about a recession--or two. At least in the short run, the economy is singing the son’s tune.

In his early days in the White House, Bush bad-mouthed the suddenly weakening economy, implicitly blaming his predecessor for its ills and using it as justification for his tax cut. Now he stands to benefit from a rebound--if it takes hold and lasts through election year 2004.

One hundred days, an arbitrary period borrowed from President Franklin D. Roosevelt (who ramrodded his New Deal program through an enthusiastic Congress in 100 days) and Napoleon Bonaparte (who reclaimed the throne of France and then lost it at the battle of Waterloo), is too short a time to measure most presidencies.

“There’s something a little absurd about using it as a standard,” said Boston University historian Robert Dallek, a biographer of President Lyndon B. Johnson. “It’s a reasonable measuring rod only in the way every week is a reasonable measuring rod.”

Still, if it’s too early to arrive at an answer, even historians are already measuring George W. Bush to decide what the right question might be.

If Bush is lucky and skillful, Princeton’s Greenstein said, he could turn out to be “a Reagan without the rhetoric” or another Dwight D. Eisenhower, an underestimated president who managed his job well.

But if he’s not?

“Warren G. Harding,” Dallek offered. “A charming man, but not intellectual, not interested and not successful.”

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Out of the Starting Gate

Notable events in President Bush’s first 100 days in the White House:

Jan. 20

* In inaugural address, promises to govern with “civility, courage, compassion and character”

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Jan. 22

* Bans federal aid to inter-national family planning pro-grams that counsel about or “actively promote” abortions.

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Jan. 23

* Submits education reform legislation, linking federal aid to improvement in student test scores and providing a limited voucher program for students seeking to leave failing public schools.

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Jan. 29

* Creates a White House office to promote federally funded programs run by religious (“faith-based”) and other community organi-zations. Asks Vice President Dick Cheney to devise a national energy strategy.

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Feb. 5

* Directs Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to launch a comprehensive review of U.S. military strategy.

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Feb. 8

* Proposes $1.6-trillion, 10-year tax cut.

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Feb. 16

* On his first foreign trip, meets with Mexican President Vicente Fox.

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Feb. 27

* Introduces his budget plan during an address to a joint session of Congress.

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March 13

* Backs off a campaign promise to cap carbon dioxide emissions from power plants.

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March 20

* Revokes a Clinton administration rule that would have reduced the acceptable level of arsenic in drinking water. Signs a bill repealing Clinton administration ergonomic regulations for workers at risk of repetitive stress injuries.

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March 27

* EPA chief Christie Whitman announces that the administration won’t implement the 1997 Kyoto, Japan, global warming treaty.

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March 28

* House passes Bush budget.

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April 4

* House passes Bush’s full tax bill on a party-line vote.

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April 6

* Senate passes a budget that includes only $1.2 trillion of Bush’s tax cut.

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April 11

* Secures the release of 24 Americans held in China for 11 days after their spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter, saying the United States is “very sorry” the incident occurred.

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Wednesday

* Opens negotiations with Senate Democrats toward a compromise tax cut.

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How They Spent Their First 100 Days

Accomplishments of President Bush and four predecessors during their first 100 days in office.

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100-DAY BENCHMARKS Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Domestic trips: Days traveled 9 7 15 22 24 Domestic trips: States visited 7 2 15 15 26 Foreign trips: Days traveled 0 2 6 2 4 Foreign trips: Countries visited 0 1 4 1 2 Heads of state received and met with 11 4 9 23 20 Formal news conferences 6 2 11 4 2 Nomination submitted * 154 96 173 72 Nominations confirmed * 137 49 49 38 Number of executive orders 16 18 11 13 11 *

*Information not included because the Ethics in Government Act of 1978 had not been passed. That law introduced financial disclosure requirements that have added significant time to the nomination process.

Source: The White House