Huge Boulder Sits on Condit’s Rocky Road to Reelection

Political strategist Richie Ross sees his client’s task as basic: He must convince voters that he’s not a murderer.

Didn’t even conspire to commit murder. Did not hire a hit man. Had absolutely nothing to do with Chandra Levy’s disappearance.

Then Rep. Gary Condit can think about--maybe--running for reelection next year.

The fact that Condit was cheating on his wife (again) and having an affair with Levy, an intern from his hometown, who’s 29 years his junior--well, the congressman can only wish that were his biggest problem.

“Right now,” Ross says, “that [issue] looks like the light at the end of the tunnel.”

The veteran consultant adds: “You don’t get anything done until people are prepared to believe you didn’t have anything to do with the girl’s disappearance. If you can’t get to that step. . . . “

So today, a letter from Condit--painstakingly written during two dozen drafts--will begin arriving in more than 200,000 homes of the 18th Congressional District, stretching roughly from Modesto to Fresno down Highway 99. The message is designed to persuade voters that Condit’s no murderer and, in fact, he has cooperated fully with Washington police trying to find Levy.

Then there’ll be that curious interview tonight with Connie Chung on ABC’s “Primetime Thursday.” Condit aides are not saying why the congressman chose a network TV interview to break his silence of nearly four months. Why not an interview with Central Valley TV stations or local newspapers?

Condit probably thought Chung was a softer touch and she also could help him connect with women voters. Moreover, he’s miffed at the Modesto and Fresno Bees for editorializing that he should resign. Another option, a Clintonesque town forum, could get too unruly.

Regardless, Condit’s fate will not be decided by the Beltway bunch he’s apparently trying to impress on network TV. His destiny is in the hands of the home folks.

Indeed, his constituents are as intriguing as Condit.

We already know plenty about him: Conservative Democrat. Career politician. Once led a failed coup against then-Assembly Speaker Willie Brown. “[He was] basically without any real sense of loyalty,” Brown says. Hypocrite. (Wants the Ten Commandments posted in classrooms.) When his latest girlfriend disappeared, he clammed up and wore a plastic grin for TV.

“I don’t really believe he murdered her,” says Bruce Cain, a Democrat who’s director of the Institute of Government Studies at UC Berkeley. “The rest of it, he deserves to be skewered. . . .

“His fate is in the hands of Republicans and independents. It’s hard to believe they’re going to stay faithful to this guy. Republicans love the integrity issue. Here’s a man who’s the poster child for low integrity.”

And the poster child for term limits.

These valley folks did, after all, vote adamantly for congressional term limits in 1992. (Condit’s Stanislaus County by nearly 2 to 1.) The state voted almost as big, but courts tossed out the measure as unconstitutional.

Term limit critics--such as myself--argue that voters can exercise their own term limits whenever a politician runs for reelection. That’s coming up for this congressman.

It’ll be intriguing to watch Condit’s constituents. Do they really favor term limits? And just what kind of person do these people want representing them back in Congress?

Surely there are others available.

For Democrats, there’s Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza (D-Merced), a former Condit aide. But Cardoza wants to run for the state Senate and, for family reasons, is reluctant to move to Washington.

Here’s another idea: Bill Lyons, 51, the state agriculture secretary. He’s a longtime Modesto rancher and farm community leader.

Republicans: State Sen. Dick Montieth (R-Modesto) has been reluctant to run against Condit because they’ve had a nonaggression pact. But he now says, “I’m not closing the door.” Neither is freshman Assemblyman Dave Cogdill (R-Modesto). Both conservatives say they’re waiting for the new district lines to be drawn.

They’re probably going to be drawn by the Legislature to help Condit or some other Democrat.

Another thought: U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, a moderate Republican with long family ties to the area. Cabinet members don’t step down to run for the U.S. House. But if Condit ran, this would be the most watched House race in the nation--and a possible springboard to the U.S. Senate or governor.

Republicans can only hope that Condit does run again. Voters might just set the bar higher than his being cleared of murder--and then impose their own term limit.