Mexican Immigration Could Boom in U.S., Report Says

As many as half a million Mexicans could migrate to the U.S. annually by 2030 if Mexico’s economic growth continues at a creep over the next several decades, according to a newly released report by the Mexican National Population Council.

The net flow of immigrants over the southern U.S. border would rise by 42% from current levels if economic growth holds at 1.5%. According to the report, the numbers would slightly exceed highs seen in the mid-1990s, when Mexico experienced a devastating monetary devaluation and the U.S. economy was booming.

Apparently left out of the projections, however, is the current U.S. recession, which in the short term could weaken the attraction to workers south of the border. Levels of immigration have been declining since 1996. The Immigration and Naturalization Service recently reported a 25% drop in detentions at the U.S.-Mexico border over the fiscal year that ended in September, a strong indication of decreased attempts to cross illegally.

“My impression is it’s a study done a while ago, and it isn’t necessarily taking into account the climate of recession in the last six months,” said Francisco Alba, an economics professor and expert in international migration at Mexico City’s Colegio de Mexico.

Alba said most other reports he’s seen have shown immigration levels holding steady at about 300,000 a year.

“To predict these things over such a long period is very, very risky,” Alba said. ‘You can be sure that demographic trends will hold, but economic conditions are very difficult to predict.”

Scenarios that include a more robust growth rate of 5% a year in Mexico and a decrease in salary disparities between the two nations would bring the annual number of immigrants down to about 400,000.

Based on the estimated levels of immigration, the Mexican-born population in the U.S. would increase to 18.2 million by 2030, the report predicted. Currently, 8.3 million people born in Mexico reside in the U.S., including about 3 million who entered without proper documents.

About 85% of those making the crossing find work, spreading out almost evenly among the service, agriculture and industrial sectors, and only about 2.3% return after not finding work, the report said.

The character of northward immigration apparently has changed over the last two years, according to the population council. About 6% of the border crossers are women, up from about 3.3% two years ago. In addition, more than half have never attempted the crossing before, up from about a third two years ago, in a nation where cyclical job-seeking and return is common.

The report was completed in May, as Mexican President Vicente Fox pressured President Bush to include the free flow of labor in a common-market model for the two neighbors.

In the meantime, Fox has pushed his counterpart to grant residency to Mexican laborers currently in the U.S. and to consider a temporary work-visa program.