Poll Throws Conventional Wisdom on Davis Out the Window

Dumb me. All along, I’ve been assuming that the voters don’t especially like Gov. Gray Davis but do like his policies.

It’s simple logic: He’s hardly a charmer. Worse, he strikes many as crassly political and a photo-op opportunist. But Davis is a centrist who’s in sync with California--on education, crime, abortion, taxes, parks, business and labor.

At least that’s the operating assumption of most political operatives. It’s largely why he’s the insiders’ bet for reelection--that and history: No California governor running for a second term has been beaten in 60 years.

It’s also why adversaries mostly attack Davis’ leadership--which gets at his personality--rather than assailing head-on his policies. (Except energy.)

Turns out we’ve all been wrong, says pollster Mark Baldassare of the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. Most people do like Davis, but dislike his policies, according to a new PPIC poll being released today.

“This is why he’s not safe,” Baldassare opines. “It’s why there’s a close election.”

The statewide poll was conducted from Nov. 26 to Dec. 4 among 2,000 adults, including 953 likely voters. The bottom line among likely voters: Davis trails former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan by 4 points in a hypothetical November matchup--Davis 40%, Riordan 44%.

Pitted against other Republicans, Davis beats Secretary of State Bill Jones 45% to 35% and businessman Bill Simon 46% to 31%.

In the March 5 primary, Riordan is running miles ahead of his rivals for the GOP nomination: Riordan 37%, Jones 13%, Simon 5%, with 45% undecided.

This is a baseline poll that defines the running track for a 10-month race that won’t begin in earnest until after the holidays.

Baldassare dropped in the “like-dislike” question, which he’d never before asked about Davis. He did ask it about President Clinton in the summer of 2000. People replied that they didn’t like Clinton, but did like his policies. This mirrored what other pollsters were finding across the country.

Now, it’s the opposite for Davis--58% of probable voters say they “like Davis” and 37% “dislike” him. But 40% “like his policies” and 55% “dislike” them.

Only 33% like both Davis and his policies (just half of fellow Democrats do); 30% dislike both. Another 25% have split views, liking Davis personally but disliking his policies. And just 7% fit the insiders’ conventional wisdom, disliking Davis while liking his policies.

Here’s why it matters: People who like Davis personally, but disagree with his policies, vote 2 to 1 for Riordan. The few who don’t like Davis but do like his policies give the governor a slight edge.

Also, only 29% of people who like Davis while disliking his policies approve of how he’s handling his job. Conversely, those who don’t like Davis but agree with his policies give him 63% job approval.

“This tells you the importance of policy,” Baldassare says.

Performance trumps personality. Particularly Davis’ personality.

So how could this be? People liking the guy, but not voting for him.

For one thing, most elected officials got a popularity boost after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

“When people see their governor standing on a bridge, being out there against terrorism, it’s really hard to say, ‘I don’t like him,’ ” Baldassare says. “The sense among Americans today is that it’s patriotic to say, ‘I like my leaders.’ But they get more pragmatic in their voting.”

Davis’ job performance is approved by 51% of the public, a slight dip from October. But last July it was 44%. Some of this recent rise may also be attributable to California getting through the summer without blackouts.

But Davis’ underlying problem is this: The three state issues that Californians consider most important are the economy, electricity and education, the poll shows. People are unhappy about these issues, and Davis is paying.

The 56% who think California is headed for bad times next year side with Riordan by 6 points.

People who believe that electricity is the most important issue favor Riordan by 10.

Education is Davis’ signature issue. But the half who consider the quality of schools a big problem support Riordan by 12 points. In fact, two-thirds believe that K-12 schools have gotten worse or not improved.

Davis gets high marks for how he is handling “terrorism and security.” But this issue has dropped to a low fourth--tied with population growth--on the voters’ “most important” list.

“On the big issues--the issues that matter--people are not happy with Davis,” Baldassare says.

Yet, this isn’t all bad news for the governor. Davis’ TV ad creators have months to sell his policies and record. His personality would be tougher to peddle. Fortunately for him, he’s already liked. Says the poll.