The Thursday Night Fights

One of the most anticipated battles of the TV season erupts tonight when tribes of viewers across the country cast their vote by remote control.

Will it be Ross and Rachel? Or Ducha and Ogakor?

This evening’s colossal showdown between TV’s top-rated comedy, NBC’s “Friends,” and the new edition of CBS’ reality series phenomenon, “Survivor,” will be scrutinized by industry insiders and advertisers, and some predictions are already in. One NBC honcho conceded “Survivor: The Australian Outback” would most likely win the opening round, while others associated with “Friends” maintain the long-running comedy will initially lose some viewers but go the distance.

Some observers are attaching great significance to the battle, saying it could be the beginning of the end for NBC’s traditional domination of Thursday with its “Must-See TV” formula.

The veteran comedy has already mapped out its counterattack for the “Survivor: The Australian Outback” onslaught, which premieres tonight in its regular time slot after its initial Sunday outing following the Super Bowl. “Friends” episodes all month will be extended by an extra 10 minutes, with new segments of “Saturday Night Live” rounding out the hour. Guest stars such as Jason Alexander and Susan Sarandon--who were signed to appear before CBS slated “Survivor” on Thursdays--will appear this month in separate “Friends” episodes.

“ ‘Survivor II’ could really upset the power structure of ‘Friends’ and NBC’s Thursday night,” said Paul Schulman, president of Schulman/Advanswers NY, a media buying and planning firm. “If it knocks off ‘Friends,’ it is big. ‘Friends’ is toward the end of its run. The show is still very good, but it’s not what it was, not as red hot. The damage that ‘Survivor’ could do might make Thursday much less of a ‘Must See’ night for NBC. CBS will get people out of the habit of watching ‘Friends,’ and they won’t come back in droves.”

Added Chuck Bachrach, who oversees media buying for the Los Angeles ad agency of Rubin Postaer & Associates: “NBC has peaked in the last year or so on Thursdays. They have shown weakness in series like ‘The Weber Show.’ They’ve already hurt themselves, and this ‘Friends’ strategy is a Band-Aid. The ‘Survivor’ situation could really loosen the foundation of their Thursday night, and it could start to crumble. If that happens, and there’s an actors and a writers strike coming up, the network could be in a position of weakness on that night come next season.”

Peter Roth, president of Warner Bros. Television, which produces “Friends,” said, “Obviously we’re not thrilled. ‘Survivor II’ will make a significant impact on the viewership of ‘Friends.’ This is arguably the most competitive entry in the 8 p.m. ‘Friends’ time period since the series went on the air. Naturally, we’re not going to sit idly by, and we hope to at least blunt it. But to ignore the power of ‘Survivor’ would be ridiculous. We all realize that.”

“Friends” will up the ante even further on Feb. 22, the last Thursday in the four-week rating sweeps that begin tonight, with an hourlong installment that will include a 20-minute segment featuring outtakes and new interviews by NBC’s Conan O’Brien with the “Friends” cast.

NBC executives and others associated with “Friends” breathed a little sigh of relief Monday when results for the first episode of “Survivor” were unveiled. The series premiered to impressive but not blockbuster ratings following the Super Bowl, even though it far exceeded the average for programs broadcast after the game in the past decade.

Last summer’s “Survivor” did especially well with viewers in the treasured 18-to-49 and 18-to-34 age groups, demographics coveted by advertisers that have not traditionally tuned in to CBS. Those young adults also represent the key core audience for “Friends,” so both shows will be competing for the same eyeballs.

Schulman said CBS was taking a big chance with advertisers by throwing down the “Survivor” gauntlet against “Friends.” “If you have a piece of exclusivity of ‘Survivor’ with your ad, and ‘Survivor’ runs on Wednesdays instead of Thursdays, an advertiser can get a bigger number with less competition,” he said.

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NBC has owned Thursday night since the mid-1980s with hits such as “The Cosby Show” and “Family Ties,” continuing that dominance behind “Seinfeld,” “Friends” and “Frasier.” The last time another network ruled Thursdays was in the early 1980s, when CBS had the hit drama trio of “Magnum P.I.,” “Simon & Simon” and “Knots Landing.”

Thursday night is considered prime TV real estate for auto makers and movie studios that can buy ads for movies opening that weekend.

Executives and producers on “Friends” are adamant that “Survivor” will have no lingering ill effects on the veteran comedy.

“ ‘Friends’ is already firmly established, and there will not be a long-term impact,” maintained Jeff Zucker, the newly appointed president of NBC Entertainment. “Our audience will come back. There have been many challenges to our Thursday nights through the years, and we’ve always been able to withstand them. It’s now incumbent upon us to deal with this one as well. We’re taking it one Thursday at a time.”

NBC’s obstacles extend beyond the February sweeps. Because of the need to offer original episodes during the May sweeps, “Friends” will air some reruns in March and April, going up against new installments of “Survivor.”

Roth, who called the showdown a “Battle of the Titans,” remained optimistic.

“The audience will not desert ‘Friends,’ ” he said. “They will find their way back. ‘Survivor II’ is just a limited run. ‘Friends’ will continue to be the most well-crafted comedy on television.”

Added “Friends” executive producer Kevin Bright, “It’s a shame that these two shows have to go up against each other. The real loser is the audience. Both shows will drop now, though I feel that ‘Survivor’ will take the bigger drop. But our audience will come back to us.”

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Alluding to what Arsenio Hall once said about his late-night competition with Jay Leno, Bright quipped, “As for now, we’re not making Arsenio Hall-like quotes about how we’re going to kick ‘Survivor’s’ ass. To do that would be the kiss of death. We really have nothing against them, and I’m sure [‘Survivor’ executive producer Mark Burnett] has nothing against us.”

Bright acknowledged that “Friends,” which premiered in 1994, has not faced many formidable challenges before now.

“Certain shows have attempted to upset the apple cart, but it seems the other networks just gave up,” he noted. “It’s like everybody said, ‘Let’s just let NBC have Thursday night.’ So we’ve been uncontested for awhile. The other half-hours that have been put around us are not as airtight.”

According to Bright, the mood on the set of “Friends” hasn’t changed much in the face of the challenge. “There was the initial thing when the news broke. Then it was back to work. Nobody is hanging their heads around here. We know we will be back next year.”

Zucker, who came up with the idea of lengthening the “Friends” episodes, said there is another positive aspect to the battle. He said “Friends” episodes always have material that gets left on the cutting room floor.

“Matt LeBlanc is happy now,” quipped Zucker. “He told me, ‘Maybe some of my jokes will get left in now.’ ”