Bush’s Agenda Strategy: First Stand Fast, Then Bend

Following the approach he used in Texas, President-elect George W. Bush is developing a legislative strategy that offers virtually no upfront concessions to Democrats but envisions compromise later in the process, senior advisors say.

Though some Democrats already are grumbling that the incoming president has offered too few conciliatory gestures since his razor-thin victory, Bush and his advisors have determined that it is more important to signal commitment to his principles. As a result, they are preparing legislation embodying even his most controversial campaign proposals, such as an across-the-board cut in income tax rates and his pledge to create federally funded private school vouchers.

“You don’t just sort of compromise with yourself at the beginning,” said one senior Bush advisor. “You lay out what your agenda is, then you see what points of agreement you can find. . . . Otherwise you are signaling that what you say doesn’t matter.”

This model closely follows Bush’s pattern as governor in Texas. In his dealings with the Texas Legislature, his initial proposals deviated remarkably little from his promises on the campaign trail. But on all of his major Texas initiatives, Bush eventually accepted significant compromises with Democratic lawmakers.

Most of his aides expect that Bush will operate the same way as president--showing flexibility later, after initially underscoring conviction.

But his reluctance to offer early olive branches to the opposition party has caused some Democrats to complain that Bush and his advisors are overestimating his mandate after losing the presidential election popular vote by more than 500,000.

“They have made no concession in anything they have done so far to the fact that they are not operating on a mandate,” insisted Steve Elmendorf, chief of staff for House Democratic Leader Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri.

Without exception, Bush aides counter that they recognize the narrow partisan balance in Congress means the new president cannot pass his agenda without compromise. The key question is when to offer concessions.

Many Democrats have argued that Bush could generate goodwill by modifying his agenda from the outset--either by adding to it centrist ideas popular among Democrats or by scaling back some of the proposals that generate the most concern within the rival party.

But the Bush team believes that the cost of any such gesture would greatly outweigh the benefits. Bush advisors say that preemptive concessions to Democrats could alienate the GOP base, demonstrate weakness to Congress and cause voters to doubt his word--a dangerous prospect after a campaign in which he stressed his determination to restore “integrity” to the Oval Office.

“What the Democrats are basically saying is, ‘Tell us you didn’t mean what you said,’ ” said the senior Bush advisor. “They need to understand Bush is a person who said what he believes. And it is important a president has credibility with Congress, so when they come to an agreement, it can be counted upon. . . . That’s why he is not going to abandon his agenda. He’s not going to walk out and say I didn’t mean it.”

Texas Rep. Paul Sadler, a Democrat who negotiated extensively with Bush as chairman of the Texas House Education Committee, sees a personal motivation in the incoming president’s legislative approach.

“I have a note from him that I kept in the 1999 legislative session . . . [in which] he made the statement that he believes it to be very important that people should do what they say they are going to do, particularly in politics,” Sadler recalled. “I think that is probably the single most important tenet of his philosophy.”

McCain Opening Drive for Campaign Reform

Bush’s initial legislative priorities will entirely reflect issues he stressed in the campaign. Democrats have been hoping to spotlight some of the concerns left unresolved in the last Congress, such as reform of health maintenance organizations. And maverick Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Bush’s principal opponent for the Republican presidential nomination, is launching a major push to pass campaign finance reform early this year.

But the senior Bush advisor said that, despite those pressures, the new president will focus on five familiar issues as his first legislative priorities:

* Education reform.

* Tax cuts.

* Grants to states to subsidize prescription drugs for low-income seniors.

* A supplemental appropriation to increase pay for military personnel.

* Legislation to give faith-based charities a greater role in delivering social services.

And as he shapes these proposals, Bush is bending far more toward reconfirming his proposals as he presented them during the campaign than making revisions to reach out to Democrats. That may be most apparent in preparations for Bush’s education reform bill--which he has said will be the first measure he introduces after he takes office.

Bush’s education agenda is built around an ambitious trade: He would offer states greater flexibility in spending federal education dollars in return for their agreement to stiffen accountability by testing students more often in reading and math.

That approach largely overlaps legislation introduced last year by a coalition of centrist Democrats affiliated with the Democratic Leadership Council. The bill’s authors included Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), Vice President Al Gore’s running mate in last year’s presidential campaign. Given that confluence, Bush advisors and centrist Democrats are optimistic that education could provide one of the first bipartisan agreements for the new president.

But significant differences still separate Bush’s plan from the centrist Democrat proposal. In particular, the Democrats’ bill would increase federal education spending much more than Bush would over the next five years. And, unlike Bush’s approach, the Democrats’ bill does not fund vouchers that parents can use to send their children to private schools. Bush would provide such vouchers to low-income parents whose children attend public schools that have failed to improve student performance for three years.

In drafting Bush’s bill, his advisors have debated whether to offer Democrats concessions on either of those issues as a means of quickly establishing an alliance, participants in the discussions say. “The question is, do we come with a Bush-Democratic Leadership Council bill initially and try to force their hand . . . or do you get to that position later,” said one senior aide privy to the talks.

It appears that the Bush camp has settled on the latter position. Another senior aide involved in the discussions said it is “very unlikely” Bush’s initial legislative proposal will significantly raise his funding proposal or scale back his voucher plan.

“If you feel you have been developing policy with an eye toward the center, why wouldn’t you begin there?” asked the advisor. “In a very closely divided Congress, why would you pre-negotiate a deal?”

Democrats Giving Ground on Taxes

On taxes, Bush is taking a similar tack.

With concerns about the economy growing, leading Democrats have signaled that they may be willing to move toward Bush on two key issues in the tax debate. First, several have said that they could accept a larger overall cut than the $500-billion, 10-year reduction Gore proposed. Second, some Democrats have indicated a growing receptivity to the across-the-board cut in income tax rates that Bush prefers, as opposed to tax cuts targeted for specific purposes, such as subsidizing college tuition, that Democrats have recently emphasized.

Rep. Calvin M. Dooley of Visalia, chairman of a group of centrist House Democrats, said: “There is increased interest by a number of us in the New Democratic Coalition to be looking at rate reductions in taxes, maybe to a greater degree than in the past.”

For many Democrats, the main sticking point may be Bush’s proposal to cut the top income tax rate, paid by the wealthiest taxpayers, from 39.6% to 33%. But on this front too, Bush aides are not yet hinting any give.

The aides cautioned that their reluctance to revise proposals at this stage does not mean that Bush will not negotiate later. “He is going to fight for his proposals,” said the senior advisor. “But he is going to be respectful of the fact that the president proposes and Congress disposes.”

That was Bush’s pattern in Texas. Though his initial proposals tracked his campaign promises, he accepted significant compromises on virtually every major policy initiative he got passed--from his welfare and juvenile justice reform bills in 1995 to the balance between tax cuts and new education spending that he negotiated in 1999.

“At the end of the day, he knows what can pass and what can’t pass,” said Texas Rep. Sadler. “He will try to get as close to his proposal as he can, but in the end he will cut the best deal available.”