Poll on Davis Is an Eye-Opener

It’s fantasy, but also fascinating for political junkies: Match Gov. Gray Davis against U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer in a gubernatorial primary and the winner is--Boxer.

The incumbent is spurned. Democratic voters prefer the liberal senator over the centrist governor by 46% to 41%.

Here’s another contest: Davis vs. U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein. It’s no contest: Feinstein 55%, Davis 28%.

The message: Davis’ support is soft within his own party.

The Davis-Feinstein question was asked by pollster David Binder in a statewide survey in May for some power companies. Each month, they check the political pulse of their most annoying adversary, the California governor.

Two weeks ago, the companies asked voters of all parties whether they thought Davis should be reelected or replaced. The result: Reelect 31%, replace 50%.

Yet in this same poll, Davis ran slightly ahead of his strongest potential Republican opponent, former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, 41% to 39%. Davis beat Secretary of State Bill Jones by 10 points and obscure businessman Bill Simon by 15.

Clearly, it’s not just his right flank that Davis must watch. He also could use some shoring up on the left.

The California Teachers Assn. recently tested Davis’ strength in a hypothetical Democratic primary against Boxer. That was the idea of state Senate leader John Burton (D-San Francisco), a former Boxer mentor. She once ran his congressional office in Marin County.

Burton’s explanation: “Several people were trying to encourage Barbara to run [for governor]. I figured a poll would show it’d make no sense. It was really meant to put something to bed.

“What the world doesn’t need is a divisive primary. I don’t think anyone would have believed a poll would show this.”

Who’s pushing Boxer to challenge Davis? “Labor people, women’s groups,” Burton replied without elaboration. Another person close to the senator added: “Environmentalists.”

Frankly, I didn’t pursue it. Anybody pushing Boxer isn’t doing it very hard. She’s not running for anything.

“It’s always great to do well in a poll,” says David Sandretti, a Boxer spokesman. “But she’s supporting Gray Davis and expects him to win. She loves her job in the Senate.”

Actually, the CTA pollsters--Republican Jan von Lohuizen and Democrat Diane Feldman--entered several candidates into a hypothetical 2002 primary. (Feinstein wasn’t included.) Davis won that free-for-all with 31%, followed by Boxer at 24% and former White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta, 9%. But Boxer won the face-off with Davis by five points.

“It means nothing,” says Garry South, Davis chief political strategist. “There’s no indication he’s going to get a significant primary challenger. None.

“Anybody who thinks they can ‘primary’ a sitting governor of their own party, win the nomination and save the party in the fall is a fatuous fool.”

South adds: “We poll all the time. Do focus groups. I’m very familiar how we stand with Democratic voters. And we’re fine. Always been fine.”

But veteran Democratic consultant Bill Carrick sees the CTA poll as an eye-opener.

“I was surprised,” he says. “What I’d seen in other polls suggested that Davis was hurting with Republicans and dicey with independents, but holding onto the Democratic base. What this suggests is the Democrats are pretty loose, too, and more up for grabs than I’d thought.

“My experience is if you start getting bad poll numbers, things happen. Somebody really interested in running, they could be encouraged.”

The CTA and Burton hope the poll cautions Davis against venturing further to the right--especially during current negotiations over a state budget.

“There’s one message every base [Democratic] constituency wants the governor to get: You’re in trouble with us,” says John Hein, the CTA’s top political operative. “That’s the point.”

Indeed, the fact that Boxer--one of the most liberal members of Congress--can outpoll the centrist governor is intriguing. But rather than reflecting left vs. center conflicts, it may mostly be the result of bad voter vibes from Davis’ handling of electricity.

A Times poll last month found that a third of Democratic voters disapproved of the way Davis was dealing with the power crisis. About as many said he had not shown “decisive leadership.” And because of it, more than a quarter of Democrats were less inclined to vote for him.

Boxer probably is a barometer of voters bristling over blackout scares and rate hikes. Davis needs to demonstrate leadership on energy and the budget. And decisiveness may be as important as ideological direction.