The Numbers, Please ...

Aregional development agency’s blunder, overstating by millions the number of Orange County air passengers, is echoing through the political battle over a commercial airport at the former El Toro Marine base. It has given unfortunate credence to the old adage about lies, damned lies and statistics.

When it comes to airport planning, accurate numbers matter. For instance, how many people using this region’s airports came from Orange County? The answer helps decide where new airport facilities should go and how big they should be. Not just planners but aviation officials, politicians, wary suburbanites and eager developers seek numerical justification for their views. Numbers pulled from planning reports turn up in brochures and initiative campaigns.

El Toro airport opponents, long mistrustful of the Southern California Assn. of Governments’ figures, recently got the agency to acknowledge that in May it overestimated by 4million the number of Orange County airline passengers using all Southern California airports. The miscalculation resulted from including passengers from outside the area who made connections at the region’s airports in Orange County’s total. SCAG now says that the 16 million total for Orange County passengers that it had given for all airports was in fact only 12million.

According to the amended estimates, about 7million Orange County passengers traveled through Orange County’s John Wayne Airport last year. Another 5million were said to have used Los Angeles International and Ontario International.

The need for accurate numbers is evident, as officials planning El Toro are already at odds with a substantial portion of the population that has grown up in cities around the base.

As it turns out, the county’s combined planning for expansion at John Wayne and El Toro would accommodate roughly three times the county’s passenger demand under the corrected SCAG figures. The accuracy of much earlier SCAG passenger projections for the region has also come under attack. The county needs all the clarity it can get to resolve its long local argument, which will be reprised tonight for the entire region to hear in a radio debate on KCRW-FM (89.9) at 6:30 p.m.

SCAG’s error is more fuel for opponents of an international airport at El Toro. It will certainly add to the skepticism that already exists about county supervisors’ current plans for El Toro and about the county’s obligation to regional airport needs.